The UK economy grew by 0.4% between April and June 2026, according to official figures from the Office for National Statistics, matching economists' forecasts but marking a slowdown from the 0.6% expansion recorded in the first three months of the year.
Growth in the second quarter was driven largely by the services sector, with manufacturing also contributing a positive, if smaller, boost. The ONS noted that warm weather and major sporting fixtures gave certain businesses an extra lift during June.
good weather and sporting events may have had a positive effect
The men's football World Cup, which began in mid-June, drew crowds to pubs, bars and other venues screening matches, while the month also brought the first heatwave of the summer, encouraging additional consumer spending.
How does this compare with earlier months?
The path to this quarterly figure was uneven. The UK economy had contracted by 0.1% in April, a decline our earlier coverage attributed to a drop in services sector output, which was only partly cushioned by gains in construction. Separately, the ONS's own April release recorded services falling 0.2% and construction rising 0.1%, while production showed no growth at all that month, according to the Office for National Statistics. CNBC reported that the April contraction was linked in part to pressure stemming from the Iran war, according to CNBC.
Despite that monthly dip, the broader three-month trend to April 2026 showed the economy expanding by 0.7% compared with the three months to January 2026, the ONS confirmed in its GDP monthly estimate for April 2026. Meanwhile, reported that the ONS left its original estimate of 0.6% growth for the first quarter of 2026 unchanged when the figure was confirmed, according to .
What role did the weather and World Cup play in spending?
Beyond the ONS's headline growth figures, other data suggest the hot weather and World Cup had a measurable effect on consumer behaviour. Online retail sales in Great Britain reached a five-year high in June, as heat, tournament-related spending and demand for summer goods pushed sales above forecasts, according to our earlier report on record online retail sales.
Did the Bank of England anticipate this slowdown?
Yes, broadly. The Bank of England had projected underlying GDP growth of just 0.1% for the second quarter of 2026, citing a modest drag from heightened uncertainty as businesses reassessed demand, according to the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Report. The actual outturn of 0.4% came in notably above that projection.
The slowdown also arrives against a backdrop of easing price pressures. Inflation slowed to 2.6% in the year to June 2026, down from 2.8% in May, as fuel and food costs fell, according to our earlier coverage of the inflation figures.
What happens next?
The ONS is due to publish its GDP quarterly national accounts covering April to June 2026, which will provide a fuller breakdown of the drivers behind this quarter's growth, according to the government's statistics release schedule.
Key Facts
- UK GDP grew 0.4% between April and June 2026, in line with economist forecasts.
- This follows 0.6% growth in the first quarter of 2026.
- The economy had contracted 0.1% in April 2026 before rebounding.
- The Bank of England had forecast only 0.1% underlying growth for the second quarter.
- Online retail sales hit a five-year high in June 2026, aided by heat and World Cup spending.
