Welsh Labour faces marathon rebuild after historic election collapse

Ken Skates will deliver his first conference speech as Welsh Labour leader on Sunday afternoon, as the party confronts the scale of rebuilding required following its worst electoral performance in over a century.

Having governed Wales continuously since devolution in 1999, Labour finished third in May's Senedd election with just nine seats in a parliament expanded to 96 members, down from 30 of the 60 seats it previously held. For more than 100 years before that vote, the party had topped every UK and Senedd election in Wales until it fell behind both Plaid Cymru and Reform.

Eluned Morgan stepped down as Welsh Labour leader after losing her own seat in the collapse. Skates was appointed interim leader in the aftermath and later confirmed as permanent leader in July, after all nine MSs backed his candidacy and the timetable was accelerated beyond its original November schedule.

Speaking ahead of the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, Skates characterised the recovery effort as a long-term undertaking.

I'm a runner myself and I love marathons, so I'm ready for it and I'm keen to get on with the job of building the party for the future.

He added that Welsh Labour is not a spent electoral force and that recovery depends on being in decent health next May for the local elections.

What do senior party figures privately acknowledge?

Behind closed doors, senior Welsh Labour figures at the party's Cardiff headquarters concede the challenge is immense. One described the party as needing to be rebuilt pretty much from dust, with recovery potentially taking years to restore the support lost in May. However, optimism has begun to emerge following Andy Burnham's appointment as prime minister, with party insiders reporting a marked shift in morale compared to the depths of the election campaign.

A separate source noted that enthusiasm for canvassing had reached rock bottom during May but has since recovered. They also stated that Skates had made no mistakes so far, suggesting that while next May will be challenging, there is a pathway to it not being an abysmal event for Welsh Labour.

How does the local elections test compare to the Senedd result?

The 2027 local elections will represent a critical checkpoint for the party's recovery prospects. All 22 Welsh councils face re-election in May, and Skates has committed to retaining as many councils and councillors as possible. At the last local elections in 2022, Welsh Labour achieved strong results, winning 43% of available seats and securing overall control of eight councils.

When asked whether decline was inevitable next year, Skates rejected that framing.

We are very firmly focused on retaining as many councils and as many councillors as we possibly can and building on the success of the last set of local elections. But they did take place against a very favourable backdrop and on this occasion that might not be the case.

What will Skates say at conference?

In his Sunday speech, Skates will make the case for redistributing power within Wales's devolved structure.

We didn't create devolution just to reproduce a Welsh Westminster. Our Welsh government must be strong enough to lead and redistribute and strength doesn't have to mean central control. The principle is simple: Power from Westminster to Wales, power from Cardiff into our communities, power into the hands of people themselves.

He has also signalled plans to publish a mission statement and spent the summer meeting members across Wales as part of the broader rebuilding effort.

What is the broader context for Welsh Labour's collapse?

Commentators have described the party as requiring a ruthlessly transparent debate about its future, with one analysis characterising the result as a complete collapse. The scale of the defeat stands in sharp contrast to Labour's dominance in Welsh politics for generations. The party's challenge mirrors difficulties faced by other UK Labour parties: Scottish Labour's new leader inherited a party reduced to 17 MSPs after its own historic election defeat, requiring similarly fundamental rebuilding.

The leadership transition itself was accelerated after the Welsh Executive Committee voted narrowly 12-11 in June to move the timetable from November, before it was brought forward further following backing from all nine MSs. This compressed schedule reflected the urgency party figures felt about establishing stable leadership and beginning recovery work.

What happens next for Welsh Labour?

The party's immediate focus centres on the May 2027 local elections, which Skates has framed as a key indicator of whether recovery efforts are taking hold. The results will determine whether Welsh Labour can stabilise its position and begin rebuilding credibility ahead of the next Senedd election in 2031. Success in retaining council seats would provide a foundation for longer-term revival, while significant losses would deepen questions about the party's electoral viability in Wales.