The UK is set for a mix of heat, showers and thunderstorms over the coming days, with high temperatures easing by the weekend before a more changeable and cooler pattern develops next week, according to the monthly outlook. Scotland and Northern Ireland will see periods of wet weather through the rest of this week, while much of England and parts of Wales will experience a drop in temperature from the recent hot spell. Later in August, forecasters expect high pressure to reassert itself, potentially bringing renewed warmth before a chance of thundery outbreaks in early September.
According to a national broadcaster's weather update, drier and hotter conditions are expected to return over the coming week, particularly across England and Wales, before giving way to a wetter and less warm spell after the middle of the month.
How hot will it get this week?
Temperatures will sit above or well above average across the UK on Wednesday 12 August and Thursday 13 August, climbing past 30C in many parts of England and eastern Wales. Some areas could see the mid- to upper-30s, with the most intense heat expected on Thursday. Sunshine will remain widespread, though a weather front is likely to bring sharp showers, scattered thunderstorms, or more persistent rain to Northern Ireland and the north and west of Scotland.
When will the heat start to ease?
Temperatures are expected to drop slightly on Friday 14 August, although the low 30s could still be reached across central, eastern and southern England. Meanwhile, Northern Ireland, Wales, Scotland and northern England will see a cooler air mass move in as winds shift to a westerly or north-westerly direction, accompanied by a front bringing scattered showers. Some isolated showers may also appear elsewhere in England, though most areas should remain dry.
By the weekend of 15 and 16 August, temperatures will fall further across the country. While much of the UK should stay dry, isolated showers with the odd lightning strike remain possible, mainly in the north and west. An Atlantic weather system could bring more widespread rain on Sunday 16 August or overnight into Monday, most likely affecting Scotland and Northern Ireland, although the areas most in need of rainfall may once again be missed.
What will the weather be like next week?
Between Monday 17 and Sunday 23 August, conditions are expected to turn more changeable as high pressure temporarily recedes, allowing Atlantic low pressure systems and weather fronts to move closer to the UK. This raises the likelihood of rain, showers and thunderstorms, potentially even reaching some southern regions, with winds strengthening at times. The south and east may still receive less rain than the north and west overall, and there are signs that high pressure could attempt to rebuild later in the week, bringing a possible return to drier, warmer conditions in some areas. Rainfall totals for the week as a whole may end up near normal or even slightly below in places.
Temperatures are likely to remain above normal overall across most of the UK, though there will be a temporary dip before warmth returns. Northern parts of the UK may see temperatures closer to seasonal averages throughout the week.
Could the heat return in late August?
Confidence in the forecast for the final week of August and the first week of September remains low, with longer-range models showing a range of possible outcomes. The most probable scenario, spanning Monday 24 August to Sunday 6 September, involves high pressure maintaining some presence near or over the UK for much of the period, which would likely bring another spell of warmer-than-normal conditions and raise the chance of further hot days in some locations, depending on exactly where the high pressure settles.
Even so, low pressure could occasionally approach during this window, potentially triggering heavy showers, thunderstorms, or brief periods of frontal rain. Overall precipitation is expected to be near or below average rather than above it. A less likely alternative scenario would see high pressure weaken significantly, allowing low pressure systems to push in more readily from the west and bring cooler, wetter conditions instead.
Separately, a video weather briefing covering the month ahead described August as likely to bring a mix of warm and unsettled weather, with a risk of heavy rain or thunderstorms in some regions, broadly consistent with the pattern outlined above.
How does this fit the summer so far?
This latest spell of heat follows a period of cooler weather at the end of July, when forecasters had already flagged the possibility of another heatwave developing across England and parts of Wales, with highs of up to 35C, as reported in earlier coverage of a looming UK heatwave. That followed a summer marked by repeated swings between warmth and rain, including a spell in late June when temperatures fell after record June heat, with forecasters at the time also flagging the possibility of a new heatwave developing by early July, as detailed in coverage of temperatures falling after the June heat record.
What happens next?
According to the same weather service update, the next long-range outlook will cover the period from Monday 24 August to Sunday 6 September, when forecasters hope to resolve whether warmer-than-average conditions will indeed dominate and to offer an early view of what mid-September might bring. Confidence remains limited for now, given how widely the underlying computer models diverge on the outcome for that stretch.
- Temperatures could reach the mid- to upper-30s in parts of England on Thursday 13 August, the peak of this week's heat.
- Northern Ireland and northern and western Scotland face scattered showers and thunderstorms through the rest of this week.
- A cooler, more unsettled pattern is expected across most of the UK from Monday 17 August.
- High pressure may return in late August, favouring another warmer-than-normal spell into early September.
- The next detailed outlook, covering 24 August to 6 September, is expected to clarify the picture for early autumn.
