High pressure has taken control of the UK weather system, establishing largely dry and settled conditions across the country this week despite chilly autumn temperatures. According to BBC News, days will feature a mix of patchy cloud and sunny spells with occasional showers, while frost and fog are expected to develop overnight, particularly in northern and western regions.
This relatively quiet start to November contrasts sharply with October, which proved decidedly mixed according to newly released Met Office data. The month delivered wetter, warmer and sunnier conditions than the long-term average, marking the ninth consecutive month of above-average temperatures for the UK.
How wet was October compared to normal?
The UK received 13% more rain overall than in a typical October, with all four nations recording above-average rainfall. Northern Scotland experienced the most pronounced wet conditions, arriving 31% above the long-term average. The wettest period came during the final third of the month as Storm Austen and Storm Boelo swept through the region. The UK's joint-sixth wettest day on record was provisionally 24 October, when severe flooding created hazardous conditions for drivers.
The Environment Agency reported that England experienced its wettest week in two years during this period. However, officials warned that despite the heavy rainfall, conditions remain insufficient to ease the ongoing drought affecting the country. England requires at least 120% of average rainfall over the next six months to exit drought conditions by spring, with particular concerns in the West Midlands, East Anglia, and Devon and Cornwall where some irrigation reservoirs have reached historic lows.
The drought declaration on 15 October in parts of Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Somerset, East Sussex and West Sussex followed the driest April–September period in more than a century. Sustained above-average rainfall throughout the winter will be essential to counteract the effects of the hottest summer on record and support reservoir refill across affected regions.
What made October so sunny and warm?
Beyond the rainfall, October delivered exceptional sunshine and warmth. The UK recorded above-average sunshine amounts, making it the fifth-sunniest October since records began in 1910. Overall mean temperatures reached 0.9°C above average, with East Anglia recording the largest temperature anomaly at 1.3°C above average. Shetland experienced particularly notable warmth, achieving its joint-sixth warmest October on record. The provisional UK mean temperature for October was 10.6°C, with England recording 11.7°C, 1.1°C above its average.
What weather patterns will dominate early November?
The jet stream, which propelled Storms Austen and Boelo towards the UK, has now shifted northward. This repositioning has allowed high pressure to build across the country, effectively fending off major rain-bearing weather systems and maintaining predominantly dry conditions through the first few days of November.
High pressure will be focused across Scotland on Tuesday, allowing some showers to penetrate south-east England. A brisk easterly breeze will affect southern and eastern areas, with gusts of 30-40mph possible around some coasts and the Channel Islands. This breeze will deliver a scattering of showers, most frequent in East Anglia and south-east England, while many northern and western areas will remain dry with early fog lifting to reveal patchy cloud and sunny spells.
Daytime temperatures will reach 11 to 13°C, though conditions will feel considerably chillier in areas exposed to the wind. Typical early-November afternoon temperatures range around 10-14°C.
Tuesday night will turn rather cold with temperatures generally falling to between 3 and 7°C, though some rural parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England may dip below freezing, producing a touch of frost. Fog is most likely in these northern regions with some dense patches possible, whereas further south the brisk conditions will prevent mist or fog formation.
This settled pattern will persist until the end of the week, with overnight frost and fog most widespread in northern UK areas and daytime sunny spells interspersed with showers. Temperatures in many areas will decline by a degree or two as the week progresses.
Could storms return later in November?
A relatively weak area of low pressure is likely to drift northwards from France over the weekend, increasing the probability that patchy rain will move across the UK. This development could be followed by another drier interlude early next week. However, beyond that point, most computer models suggest that high pressure will weaken, allowing Atlantic weather systems to return and bring wetter and windier conditions. Considerable uncertainty remains, with no definite indication of any named storms on the horizon at this stage.
