After weeks of record-breaking heat, the UK is experiencing a significant shift in weather patterns, with rain, thunderstorms, strong winds and unsettled conditions dominating the bank holiday weekend. The change arrives as millions of people prepare to travel, with the RAC estimating that 20 million leisure trips by car will be made between Friday and Monday—the highest figure since the organisation began tracking summer bank holiday travel in 2015. The unsettled pattern is being driven by another area of low pressure approaching from the Atlantic, which will bring successive bands of rain and showers as the weekend progresses.
This marks a stark contrast to the warm, dry conditions that have dominated much of the summer. The shift also comes as major festivals including Reading and Leeds, Creamfields and the Notting Hill Carnival take place over the coming days, with wet and windy conditions likely to affect outdoor events.
What will Friday's weather bring?
Friday will see the most severe weather, with a yellow weather warning for thunderstorms remaining in place across eastern England until 07:00 BST. Residents in this zone face the risk of frequent lightning, hail and strong, gusty winds alongside heavy rainfall. The Met Office warned that some places could experience 20–30 mm of rain in an hour locally, 30–40 mm more widely, and up to 50 mm in 12 hours in certain locations.
Across the rest of the country, showers and longer spells of rain will dominate, with heavy downpours and thunderstorms particularly likely over western Scotland, Wales and north-west England. Later in the day, this wet weather is expected to spread eastward, bringing thunderstorm risks to north-east England and eastern Scotland. Another band of thundery rain could move north across or close to parts of south-east and east England overnight.
Temperatures will feel noticeably fresher than recent weeks, with highs of 20–23°C (68–73°F) in England and Wales, and 16–20°C (61–68°F) in Scotland and Northern Ireland—figures that are around average for late August.
Will it rain everywhere this weekend?
For many, the weekend will not be a complete washout. Most areas will still see some drier and sunnier moments through the three days, with parts of north and west Scotland perhaps seeing very little rainfall at all. During the sunnier spells the late August sunshine still has enough strength to make it feel reasonably warm.
However, on Saturday the forecast shows several zones of heavy showers sweeping across England and Wales especially. Like recent days, some of these could be torrential and thundery, particularly in the southern half of England and Wales. For northern parts of England the showers are likely to merge into longer spells of rain during the afternoon. Given the downpours already this week, some parts of the Midlands and northern England are more susceptible to the risk of flash flooding. A large portion of Scotland and Northern Ireland will stay dry.
How will the weather develop over the weekend?
Saturday will remain changeable, with sunny spells interspersed with heavy showers and possible thunderstorms, particularly across England and Wales. Fresh westerly winds will create blustery conditions, with temperatures reaching 18–22°C (64–72°F) in England and Wales and 16–19°C (61–66°F) further north.
Sunday may start dry and bright for many, perhaps with some mist and fog patches in central and northern areas. Northern parts may see some early showers, but through the afternoon another zone of heavy and thundery showers is expected to sweep across the country from the west. For some in East Anglia and south-east England it may stay dry until late in the day.
Bank Holiday Monday will continue to be unsettled for England and Wales, bringing further heavy showers, longer periods of rain and renewed thunderstorm risks. According to reports on 27 August, Sunday and Monday are expected to bring a mix of sunshine and showers, with further rain moving in on Saturday and heavy downpours and possible gales over the weekend. Monday is forecast to be wettest across Scotland, while England and Wales will experience a mixture of sunshine and showers before additional rain arrives from the west. South-eastern parts of the UK might get lucky again on bank holiday Monday, with scattered showers in the west during the morning gradually developing more widely through the day, though these should not be as intense as those on the previous two days. Temperatures will generally range from 16°C to 23°C (61–73°F).
What about wind impacts?
If heavy rain was not enough, parts of southern England and Wales will be buffeted by strong winds at times. The strongest winds of the weekend are expected on Saturday across southern counties of England and Wales as well as the Channel Islands, with some hills and coasts potentially experiencing gusts of 40 to 50 mph. This may make travel and camping challenging at times. Monday will be a blustery day more widely across the UK, but again southern areas will see the strongest gusts, generally 30–40 mph. The combination of wind and rain will create a cooler feeling spell of weather at times.
What does this mean for summer's record-breaking heat?
The late August bank holiday weekend will be substantially cooler, windier and wetter than the hot and dry conditions experienced throughout much of this record-breaking summer. While some pleasant sunny spells will occur between showers, with temperatures potentially reaching the low 20s in the south-east, the overall pattern marks a decisive end to the extended warm period.
With low pressure remaining positioned close to the UK, there is currently little indication of a return to prolonged hot and settled weather. The outlook for early September suggests further changeable conditions will persist, featuring a mixture of sunshine and showers with temperatures generally close to or slightly below average for the time of year.
The recent hot weather had drawn many visitors to beaches across the UK, but the approaching system will provide relief from the sustained heat that has characterised the summer months.
What should travellers expect?
The challenging driving conditions forecast for the bank holiday weekend present significant considerations for the millions planning to travel. The RAC's projection of 20 million leisure trips represents unprecedented demand for summer bank holiday journeys, and drivers should prepare for wet roads, reduced visibility from heavy rain and thunderstorms, and potential disruption from lightning and hail. Met Office meteorologist Annie Shuttleworth indicated that the unsettled conditions were likely to persist for much of the bank holiday, suggesting that travellers should allow extra time for journeys and remain alert to changing conditions.
Key Facts
- A yellow weather warning for thunderstorms in eastern England expires at 07:00 BST on Friday, with risks of lightning, hail and strong winds
- The RAC estimates 20 million leisure car trips will occur over the bank holiday weekend, the highest figure since 2015
- Some locations could receive up to 50 mm of rain in 12 hours, with 20–30 mm possible in a single hour
- Temperatures will range from 16–23°C across the UK, significantly cooler than recent weeks and around average for late August
- Strong winds in southern areas could gust at 40–50 mph on Saturday and 30–40 mph on Monday, creating additional travel hazards
- Unsettled conditions are expected to continue into early September, with no prolonged return to hot weather currently forecast
