The UK’s heatwave continues into Tuesday, with a risk of thunderstorms in some areas as the hot spell reaches its final day. Pershore in Worcestershire and Cavendish in Suffolk hit three consecutive days of heatwave threshold temperatures on Monday, and more parts of southern and eastern England are expected to meet heatwave criteria on Tuesday.
Amber and yellow heat health alerts are in effect across much of England until 09:00 BST Wednesday, with temperatures expected to reach more than 30C in some places. The intense heat is expected to be short lived, with a change in the weather pattern arriving from midweek.
When will the heatwave end?
The warmest temperatures will be felt in southern and eastern England on Tuesday. During the day, a cold front will move southwards across the Midlands and into south-east England, although it is unlikely to bring any meaningful rainfall.
Some places in the far south-east, including London, Essex, Kent and Surrey, are unlikely to receive any rain at all. The pattern is familiar after recent weeks, with the UK experiencing its driest and sunniest July on record.
Areas of low pressure have tracked to the north of the UK, bringing below-average rainfall and repeatedly failing to deliver meaningful rain further south.
What is the risk of flash flooding and hail?
Scattered thunderstorms will develop through the day on Tuesday. Low pressure that has recently brought rainfall to Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of northern England will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and into Wednesday, although this is unlikely to ease the current drought.
A yellow thunderstorm warning has been issued by the Met Office for parts of Northern Ireland on Tuesday. It runs from 12:00 to 21:00, when up to 30mm of rain in an hour or two is possible, along with strong winds and a chance of hail.
Any areas that do see heavy rain are at risk of flash flooding. The scorched ground, dry grass and soil caused by the lack of rain are likely to lead to significant pooling and runoff, because rainfall is struggling to be absorbed during brief bursts of heavy rain.
Hail may also accompany the most intense downpours, which could come as a surprise after the predominantly hot and dry conditions. Hail is most common in summer months because it needs to develop inside towering cumulonimbus clouds, which are often spawned by intense heat at ground level.
Why thunderstorms follow hot weather
Will there be another heatwave?
Following one of the driest and hottest stretches of weather in the UK’s history, the indications are that August is likely to bring more of the same. Forecast models suggest low rainfall and above-average temperatures will continue for much of the UK, meaning it is unlikely that any hosepipe bans affecting more than 20 million people in England and Wales will be lifted soon.
Wisley in Surrey remains the driest location in the UK, having recorded 47 consecutive days without measurable rainfall, while many other parts of the UK have had only a fraction of their normal rainfall in June and July.
Further spikes of heat are likely, although as August progresses and the sun gradually loses some of its intensity, the chance of extreme temperatures in the high 30s becomes lower. However, it is not uncommon to have spells of intense heat reaching 30C or higher even into September.
You can see the latest forecast for the coming weeks here.
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