The UK’s heatwave continues into Tuesday, with a risk of thunderstorms in some areas as the hot spell reaches its final day. Pershore in Worcestershire and Cavendish in Suffolk hit three consecutive days of heatwave threshold temperatures on Monday, and more parts of southern and eastern England are expected to meet heatwave criteria on Tuesday.
Amber and yellow heat health alerts are in effect across much of England until 09:00 BST Wednesday, with temperatures expected to reach more than 30C in some places. The intense heat is expected to be short lived, with a change in the weather pattern arriving from midweek.
When will the heatwave end?
The warmest temperatures will be felt in southern and eastern England on Tuesday. During the day, a cold front will move southwards across the Midlands and into south-east England, although it is unlikely to bring any meaningful rainfall.
Some places in the far south-east, including London, Essex, Kent and Surrey, are unlikely to receive any rain at all. The pattern is familiar after recent weeks, with the UK experiencing its driest and sunniest July on record.
Areas of low pressure have tracked to the north of the UK, bringing below-average rainfall and repeatedly failing to deliver meaningful rain further south.
Temperatures are set to drop across the UK over the next few days, ending the latest heatwave that has affected some areas of southern and eastern England. Humidity levels will fall too, which should cool down homes and make nights more comfortable for sleeping.
The change in conditions follows another historic day in a summer that has seen many long standing heat records toppled or tied. On Tuesday, the UK registered its 34th day of temperatures reaching 30C (86F) or higher in a calendar year, equalling the record set in 1995.
Forecasts suggest that this record is likely to be beaten as early as next week, with some showing the potential for a sixth heatwave to develop.
What is the risk of flash flooding and hail?
Scattered thunderstorms will develop through the day on Tuesday. Low pressure that has recently brought rainfall to Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of northern England will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and into Wednesday, although this is unlikely to ease the current drought.
A yellow thunderstorm warning has been issued by the Met Office for parts of Northern Ireland on Tuesday. It runs from 12:00 to 21:00, when up to 30mm of rain in an hour or two is possible, along with strong winds and a chance of hail.
Any areas that do see heavy rain are at risk of flash flooding. The scorched ground, dry grass and soil caused by the lack of rain are likely to lead to significant pooling and runoff, because rainfall is struggling to be absorbed during brief bursts of heavy rain.
Hail may also accompany the most intense downpours, which could come as a surprise after the predominantly hot and dry conditions. Hail is most common in summer months because it needs to develop inside towering cumulonimbus clouds, which are often spawned by intense heat at ground level.
Why thunderstorms follow hot weather
The Met Office is also warning of thunderstorms in parts of north-east Scotland on Wednesday. It has issued a yellow warning for that area from 10:00 to 21:00 BST, warning of heavy, slow-moving showers and some thunderstorms breaking out from late morning.
Along with lightning, gusty winds and some hail, the storms could produce up to 50mm of rain in a few places over three to six hours. This could lead to localised flash flooding and affect the transport network.
Later on Wednesday and into the night, unseasonably blustery winds are expected across parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man and northern England. Gales are possible on some hills and coasts.
Will it feel more comfortable later in the week?
Yes. Strengthening westerly winds are expected to clear the higher humidity that has made recent days and nights uncomfortable at times.
By Thursday, temperatures are forecast to sit between 15C and 24C across the UK. While that may feel distinctly cool for some after the recent hot weather, these temperatures are closer to the August average.
For many in Scotland and Northern Ireland, it may feel like a more pleasant summer day, with fewer showers and more sunshine than in recent days.
Will there be another heatwave?
Following one of the driest and hottest stretches of weather in the UK’s history, the indications are that August is likely to bring more of the same. Forecast models suggest low rainfall and above-average temperatures will continue for much of the UK, meaning it is unlikely that any hosepipe bans affecting more than 20 million people in England and Wales will be lifted soon.
Wisley in Surrey remains the driest location in the UK, having recorded 47 consecutive days without measurable rainfall, while many other parts of the UK have had only a fraction of their normal rainfall in June and July.
Further spikes of heat are likely, although as August progresses and the sun gradually loses some of its intensity, the chance of extreme temperatures in the high 30s becomes lower. However, it is not uncommon to have spells of intense heat reaching 30C or higher even into September.
Some forecasts are already suggesting that temporary builds of high pressure and southerly winds across parts of the country next week could lift some areas back above heatwave thresholds. A few areas, especially in south-east England, could again see temperatures above 30C.
The end of next week is still a long way off in forecasting terms, so it is not yet clear exactly how extensive any heat will be, how hot it will get and how long it will last.
You can see the latest forecast for the coming weeks here.
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