The United Kingdom faces an autumn characterised by above-average rainfall and temperatures, driven by a strengthening El Niño phenomenon that meteorologists expect to become the most powerful in living memory. The climate event will shift weather patterns towards stormier conditions as the season progresses, bringing both challenges and potential relief to drought-affected regions.
According to the Met Office's latest seasonal forecasts, wetter-than-normal conditions are increasingly likely as autumn advances.
"The latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as we move through autumn, which would be consistent with the historical influence of El Niño events,"said Met Office Chief Meteorologist Ian Lisk. The tropical Pacific Ocean warming that defines El Niño is expected to reach its peak intensity in November or December.
However, the Met Office emphasises that El Niño is only one of several factors shaping the UK's weather outlook.
"While this event may become one of the strongest El Niño events on record, that does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK,"Lisk cautioned. According to the Met Office's latest 3-month outlook, the UK now faces roughly one-and-a-half to two times higher chance of experiencing a warm and wet autumn than would be statistically normal.
What will the autumn weather pattern look like?
A stormy season is forecast for the UK, with chances of wet and windy weather significantly higher than normal, particularly from November onwards. The shift towards more unsettled conditions will be gradual rather than immediate. According to the Met Office's long-range forecast updated on 11 September 2026, the period from 15 to 24 September is expected to remain changeable, with rain or showers most frequent in the north and west. The outlook for 25 September to 9 October suggests initially more settled conditions before the pattern becomes increasingly changeable once again.
Temperatures over the next 10 days are expected to remain close to average overall, though some notably warm days are possible, with a generally changeable pattern persisting through late September. The weather pattern later in the season could bring more windy conditions, especially after the middle of autumn.
How could wetter weather affect drought-stricken areas?
Increased rainfall through late autumn and into winter offers potential relief to regions gripped by prolonged drought conditions. The Environment Agency's National Drought Group met on Thursday to assess the situation, and while recent weather has become more unsettled, no formal change to drought status has yet been announced.
Helen Wakeham, Director of Water at the Environment Agency, emphasised the lengthy timescale required for genuine recovery.
"Drought recovery is a very long process"and only concludes once reservoirs, rivers and groundwater supplies return to normal levels. The Environment Agency's drought report for 28 August to 3 September 2026 shows the situation continues to be actively monitored, with weekly and monthly reporting ongoing.
While the anticipated rainfall will be welcome, there is a risk the UK could experience another episode of "weather whiplash," where conditions swing abruptly from one extreme to another. A comparable pattern occurred in 2025, when the UK endured a summer of record-breaking heat followed by autumn storms and widespread flooding.
Why will autumn temperatures be above normal?
Autumn is forecast to be warmer than normal, a pattern consistent with long-term global warming trends. This prediction follows summer 2026, which was provisionally declared the hottest on record for the UK, featuring five widespread heatwaves and 40 days when temperatures exceeded 30 degrees Celsius (86 Fahrenheit).
Beyond the influence of global warming, unusually high sea surface temperatures around the UK will also drive above-average land temperatures. The series of extreme heatwaves since late spring triggered marine heatwaves, with sea surface temperatures rising as much as 5 degrees Celsius above their normal range. Warmer seas surrounding the UK tend to maintain higher land temperatures than would otherwise occur, creating a moderating effect on the atmosphere above.
Is snow likely this autumn or winter?
Snowfall during the autumn months is unlikely across the UK. However, it remains too early in the forecasting period to determine whether the winter ahead will be exceptionally cold or snowy.
El Niño years do historically bring an enhanced likelihood of cold and snowy weather in late winter across north-west Europe. The UK's geographical position on the edge of the Atlantic Ocean, however, complicates this pattern. Other meteorological influences can prevent the northerly or easterly winds that typically transport colder air into the region.
Historical analysis of winters following strong El Niño events since 1900 reveals limited evidence of widespread disruption. Of the winters examined, only the winter of 1982-83 experienced widespread disruptive snow, suggesting that even during El Niño years, snowy winters remain uncommon for the UK.
What happens next?
The Met Office's long-range forecast points to a changeable spell continuing through 24 September, with the next notable shift expected during the 25 September to 9 October period. Forecasters will continue to refine predictions as the season progresses and additional data becomes available.
The Environment Agency's drought monitoring will continue through weekly and monthly reporting cycles. The latest available England drought summary, dated 4 September 2026, provides the current baseline against which future conditions will be assessed. As autumn develops and rainfall patterns emerge, the agency will reassess whether formal changes to drought status are warranted.
