Heating oil customers anxious about costs are gambling with their supply by postponing orders in hopes of a price decline, according to industry warnings. Marsh Fuels, which operates across Berkshire and Hampshire, has reported lower-than-anticipated sales as the colder months approach, cautioning that this delay strategy could backfire.
The firm cautioned that customers who defer refilling their tanks risk either exhausting their supply or facing steeper bills than they would pay today. Prices have surged dramatically over the past year, creating a difficult calculus for households dependent on this heating method.
Why are prices so high?
Heating oil costs have climbed approximately 75% since the Iran conflict began on 28 February, according to the BoilerJuice website. More recent data shows that BoilerJuice's average price for a 1,000-litre order reached 97.05p per litre on 9 September 2026, representing an 85% increase from 52.8p a year earlier. The market had peaked at 134p per litre in March before declining, only to rise again.
Unlike gas and electricity, heating oil operates in an unregulated market, meaning suppliers can pass wholesale cost increases directly to consumers without the protections that apply to other fuels.
What are customers doing?
Dave Marsh, from the Newbury-based firm, explained the behaviour he is observing:
We're coming into autumn and we would expect to be busier than we are. And so we've made the assumption that customers are hanging on, trying to eke out that little bit of oil they've still got left in the bottom of their tank, hoping for the price to dip. The problem is that can be quite risky. If we get a cold snap and the customers are lower than they think they are, they may suddenly be urgent.
Andrew Illingworth, who coordinates oil purchases for residents in Broughton, Hampshire, confirmed this pattern. He reported handling fewer orders than typical for the season, with many households postponing their purchases.
A lot of them are holding off at the moment,Illingworth said.
They're hoping that it's going to go back down again, but who knows at the moment.
Chris Wheeler, a resident of Bucklebury, Berkshire, described the unpredictability as frustrating.
You never know what's going to happen,he said.
Except at the moment all you can expect is that the price is going to go up. So we're trying to manage our purchases so that we can buy it when it's at its cheapest.
What do experts recommend?
Ellen Fraser, energy expert at the Baringa consultancy, advised purchasing oil now rather than waiting. Speaking to the Money Box programme, she stated:
We're expecting those prices to stay high until at least April and May, which is obviously far too late to fill the tank.
The Fuel Distribution Association (UKIFDA) has previously urged customers to prepare for periods of heightened demand, severe weather, or unexpected delivery disruptions. Chief executive Ken Mackness noted:
The events we saw earlier this year demonstrated how quickly international developments can affect wholesale energy markets.
What government support is available?
In March, the government announced a £50m emergency fund to assist struggling families with heating oil expenses. However, support varies by region. Northern Ireland's £100 Home Heating Oil Support Scheme is now open to eligible households, funded by £17.2m from the UK government and £19.2m from the Northern Ireland Executive. Scotland has extended its emergency heating-oil and LPG support scheme into winter with no fixed end date, keeping it under review.
Applications for Northern Ireland's scheme are being accepted until 31 March 2027.
What action has been taken against suppliers?
During the March price surge, some suppliers cancelled prepaid orders and demanded higher prices, prompting regulatory intervention. The Competition and Markets Authority issued guidance reminding heating-oil suppliers that consumer contract terms must be fair and transparent. This intervention led suppliers to offer compensation to an estimated 1,700 customers whose orders were cancelled during the price spike.
Are customers switching to alternatives?
The sustained high costs are prompting some households to explore other heating solutions. A recent Department for Energy Security and Net Zero statistics release showed a record number of households in England and Wales applying for heat-pump grants through the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, driven partly by concerns over oil price volatility.
Key Facts
- Heating oil prices have risen 75% since 28 February 2026 and remain volatile, with experts predicting high costs through April and May
- Customers delaying orders risk running out of fuel during cold weather or paying higher emergency prices
- Government support includes a £50m emergency fund, plus regional schemes in Northern Ireland and Scotland
- The Competition and Markets Authority has intervened to ensure fair supplier practices, resulting in compensation for affected customers
- The unregulated nature of the heating oil market allows suppliers to pass wholesale increases directly to consumers
