Reform UK's Welsh leader Dan Thomas has suggested that Plaid Cymru faces significant challenges in governing for a full four-year term, citing the party's difficulty in securing Senedd support for its spending plans.
Under Thomas's leadership, Reform has established itself as the official opposition in the Welsh Parliament following May's election, when the party won 34 of the 96 Senedd seats. Thomas used the claim to position his party as a credible alternative government capable of building consensus in Cardiff Bay.
Why did Plaid struggle with its budget?
Plaid Cymru encountered difficulties passing its mid-year spending proposals through the Senedd during the summer, with no major opposition group offering backing at that time. Thomas pointed to this failure as evidence of the government's vulnerability, stating that if such difficulties persisted, the administration would struggle to survive its full mandate. A government may fail to complete a term if, for example, it loses a vote of no confidence that triggers an election it subsequently loses.
Reform voted against the spending measures because they did not meet the party's stated priorities, which included reducing overseas expenditure. Thomas argued that his party had demonstrated its capacity to forge consensus in the Senedd and represent communities he described as "left-behind."
However, subsequent developments have altered this picture. According to the Welsh Government's official statement, Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Government reached a budget agreement on 9 December 2025, securing nearly £300m in extra investment for 2026-27. The agreement included £112.8m for local government, £180m for health and social care, and £120m of capital funding reserved for the next government after the Senedd election.
The Senedd subsequently approved the Welsh budget on 27 January 2026 after this deal with Plaid Cymru. According to parliamentary reporting, the budget totaled approximately £27bn and passed with 25 votes in favor and 13 against, with 14 abstentions. The final budget increased spending by £1.2bn compared with the previous year, and the health and social care budget rose by £180m, representing a 3.6% increase.
What has Reform achieved in opposition?
Thomas claimed his party had shown itself to be a credible alternative to the government. He pointed to Reform's record since May, highlighting successful Senedd motions on bovine TB, legal protection for care leavers, and establishing a lobbyist register for Wales.
Thomas was expected to use his speech at Reform's Birmingham conference on Friday to emphasize these achievements and position his party as a strong voice for communities he believed had been overlooked by the government.
What are Reform's priorities going forward?
The party indicated it would push for greater Welsh representation in the UK inquiry into grooming gangs and called on other parties to support action on this issue. A call from Welsh Conservative leader Darren Millar in 2025 for a Wales-specific inquiry into grooming gangs led to cross-party agreement that such an inquiry should be considered by the Welsh government.
Despite the successful budget agreement in December 2025, tensions around Welsh spending votes have persisted. According to parliamentary reporting from July 2026, the Welsh Government lost a supplementary budget vote on 14 July 2026, with 49 members voting against and 44 in favor. That supplementary budget had proposed £294m of extra funding for reducing NHS waiting times, expanding childcare, and extending free school meals. Reform UK and other opposition parties voted against this measure, illustrating the continued instability around Welsh spending votes despite the earlier budget agreement.
Key Facts
- Reform UK won 34 of 96 Senedd seats in May's election, making it the official opposition to Plaid Cymru's government
- A budget agreement reached on 9 December 2025 secured nearly £300m in extra investment for 2026-27, with Plaid Cymru abstaining to allow the final budget to pass on 27 January 2026
- The Welsh Government lost a supplementary budget vote on 14 July 2026 despite the earlier agreement, with opposition parties including Reform voting against the £294m spending package
- Reform has secured Senedd support for motions on bovine TB, care leaver protections, and a Welsh lobbyist register since the May election
