Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is set to announce her final decision on changes to immigration rules affecting legal migrants in a statement to the House of Commons on Monday, 2 November. The announcement follows months of consultation and internal government debate over proposals that would extend the waiting period for permanent settlement, with indications that social care workers already employed in the UK will receive exemptions from the longer timescales.
According to BBC News, Mahmood initially proposed extending the route to indefinite leave to remain (ILR) from five years to ten years for most migrants, with some lower-paid workers facing a 15-year wait. The proposals were introduced in response to record levels of net migration recorded under the previous Conservative administration, which added 2.6 million people to the UK population between 2021 and 2024.
The Home Office has forecast that approximately 1.6 million people could settle between 2026 and 2030 under current rules. This projection prompted concerns about the financial implications for public services and welfare spending, leading Mahmood to argue that reforms are necessary to prevent what she described as a "drain on our public finances."
What is indefinite leave to remain?
Indefinite leave to remain, commonly known as settlement, grants individuals the right to live, work and study in the UK indefinitely. Those granted ILR can access eligible benefits and use their settlement status to apply for British citizenship. The status represents a significant milestone for migrants seeking permanent residence in the country.
Why did the proposals face criticism?
The original proposals generated substantial opposition, particularly because Mahmood intended to apply the extended waiting periods to migrants already working in the UK. Housing Secretary Angela Rayner publicly objected to this retrospective approach, arguing it would "change the goalposts" for people who had already committed to living and working in Britain. Several Labour MPs described the retrospective element as "un-British" and warned that the policy could exacerbate the UK's skills shortage, particularly in the care sector.
More than 200,000 responses were submitted during the consultation period, which closed on 12 February 2026, reflecting the significant public interest in the issue. The government's consultation document, launched under Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, outlined the rationale for the changes and invited feedback from stakeholders and the public.
What exemptions are expected?
The BBC understands that the final decision will include revisions to exempt most social care workers already employed in the UK from the extended waiting periods. This represents a significant shift from the original proposals, which would have subjected all lower-paid care workers to waits of up to 15 years rather than five.
According to the Institute for Public Policy Research, approximately 287,000 care workers and their dependants already in the UK could settle between 2026 and 2030. The think tank has also estimated that skilled workers and their dependants due to settle under current rules are expected to make a net lifetime contribution of around £115 billion through the taxes they pay.
Home Office calculations had suggested that 196,000 care workers and their adult dependants could settle between 2026 and 2030, at an estimated lifetime cost of £9.5 billion to taxpayers. However, the BBC reported that the proposed system could allow shorter settlement waits for migrants with higher incomes or those making contributions to their local communities, potentially creating a more differentiated approach to settlement eligibility.
What triggered these policy changes?
Mahmood announced plans to delay settlements in response to concerns over the number of people approaching eligibility for ILR, following record post-Brexit net migration figures. In her foreword to the consultation, she highlighted what she characterised as a significant lowering of the bar to entry to the UK, describing this as "most evident in the health and care visa."
She noted that an attempt to fill between 6,000 and 40,000 care sector jobs resulted in the arrival of 616,000 individuals from 2022 to 2024. Mahmood pointed out that over half of these arrivals were not actually working in the care sector but were instead dependants of those who were, raising questions about the effectiveness of the visa scheme's targeting.
What do political figures say about the changes?
Prime Minister Andy Burnham stated last week that settlement is "a right to be earned, not just granted automatically," signalling government support for a more restrictive approach to ILR. Former Home Office Minister Mike Tapp told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that he hoped those genuinely working in health and social care for five years would be exempt from the retrospective extension, describing this as "the right thing to do."
In June, Mahmood had asked Starmer to dismiss Tapp after he wrote an unauthorised article arguing that foreign care workers should be exempt from the changes to ILR. Energy Minister Miatta Fahnbulleh has since clarified her support for Mahmood's migration reforms after initially declining to explicitly back the proposals during a media interview.
Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp criticised the expected exemptions, noting that Mahmood had previously acknowledged in a March speech that allowing low-wage care workers to stay permanently would cost taxpayers £10 billion and constitute an "affront." He suggested that the government now appeared poised to implement exactly this approach.
Reform UK home affairs spokesman Zia Yusuf claimed that Mahmood had been "overruled" by Burnham, describing this as "a disaster for Britain." He stated that Reform would abolish ILR altogether if elected to government.
Dr Ben Brindle, a senior researcher at the University of Oxford's Migration Observatory, suggested that the policy "probably won't have too much impact" on people's decision to come to the UK at the broader level, noting that immigration policy typically functions as more of a barrier than an incentive.
What happens next?
Mahmood is expected to present her final decisions to Parliament on Monday, 2 November, though the Home Office has not confirmed the specific details until they are formally announced to MPs. The statement will clarify which categories of migrants will face extended waiting periods and which groups, particularly those in social care, will receive exemptions from the longer timescales.
