Agnes Shikoli points to a watermark halfway up the corrugated iron wall of her home in Kibera, one of Kenya's largest informal settlements, recalling the devastation that swept through in March when intense rainfall flooded her neighbourhood. Her tiny house sits just metres from the Ngong river, which winds through this densely populated area of Nairobi, and the physical reminders of that disaster remain visible—a broken television still sits in the corner, destroyed by the floodwaters.
Hidden away is a photograph of her sister Beatrice Khalayi, 58, who died during those earlier floods after her house was inundated and she suffered fatal electrocution. She was among more than 60 people who lost their lives across Kenya during the long rainy season. According to BBC News, with Kenya's short rainy season now underway, residents and officials are preparing for another potential deluge as warnings mount that the El Niño weather phenomenon could trigger even more severe flooding.
"I feel like it can kill us," Shikoli, 62, tells the BBC. "These houses aren't made of stone. They can fall on us, or the water can drown us." She makes just $2 per day selling groundnuts and fruit from a small stall beside the river, leaving her unable to afford to relocate despite council warnings that she should leave her riverbank home until the rainy season passes.
What is driving the flood risk?
Kibera and Kenya more broadly face a convergence of environmental and infrastructural challenges that amplify flood danger. Rubbish clogging Nairobi's drains and sewers was identified as a major contributing factor to the high death toll from the earlier floods, as excess rainfall had nowhere to escape.
Outside Shikoli's house, teams of workers in high-visibility vests are shovelling and raking garbage from the riverbed as part of Climate Worx, a programme under the office of President William Ruto designed to rehabilitate Nairobi's rivers. Such efforts have intensified since August when warnings about the scale of this year's El Niño became more alarming.
Similar work to clear drainage systems is underway across Nairobi, a sprawling city built on hilly terrain and crossed by three major rivers. However, the scale of the challenge is immense. Bramwell Simiyu, the Nairobi County disaster management chief, explains to the BBC that drainage systems have been "untouched for many years." He notes that the existing infrastructure was developed 30 years ago to serve a population of approximately 2.5 million residents, yet the city now hosts about 7 million people during the day and 5.5 million at night. Upgrading the sewerage and drainage system entirely would require investment of up to $192 million (£143 million), money that neither the cash-strapped national nor city council appears able to raise.
Informal settlements near rivers, particularly Kibera and Mathare, bear the brunt of flooding. Many residents live just metres from riverbanks, and some occupy slopes directly adjacent to the water due to continuous settlement expansion. When flash floods strike, these homes are swept away, placing occupants in mortal danger.
How many people are at risk?
The scale of potential displacement is staggering. The UN's International Organization for Migration has warned that almost 900,000 people could be forced to leave their homes in Kenya this year, primarily due to predicted floods. Within Nairobi itself, Simiyu describes a dire scenario: "Our worst case scenario looking at low-income settlements is that up to about 100,000 people are at risk. Moderate projections is about 5,000 households or about 20,000 people may be at risk."
Beyond Kenya's borders, the threat extends across East Africa. Somalia's disaster management agency has warned that 1.2 million people face displacement from extreme weather, including both floods and drought. The 1998 El Niño floods killed 2,000 people in Somalia and displaced 250,000 more, with up to 80 percent of crops destroyed in some regions, according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation.
Broader food security concerns loom as well. FEWS NET projected that 3.5–4 million people in Kenya would need food assistance between October 2026 and May 2027, and warned that flooding could push Dadaab into Emergency status from November through January. The UN's famine warning system IPC has also flagged increased risk of food insecurity in Somalia due to supply chain disruptions worsened by El Niño's effects.
Why is this El Niño particularly concerning?
Forecasters have warned that 2026 could see one of the strongest El Niño events on record, bringing extreme weather to many parts of the world. In southern Kenya, this translates to the threat of rainfall far more intense than usual. A regional forecast from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development issued in September warned of "an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño during October–December 2026."
Weather forecaster Jemima Gacheru tells the BBC that this year's El Niño is being widely compared to the devastating 1997-1998 event that caused widespread flooding and destruction in Somalia and Kenya. The comparison stems from similar temperature conditions in the Indian Ocean: the 1997 El Niño and current readings show comparable patterns, an interaction historically associated with very strong rainfall.
"For this season we have a very strong El Niño already in play in the Pacific and then we have a positive Indian Ocean dipole," Gacheru explained. This phenomenon, often called the "Indian Niño" because of its similarity to its Pacific counterpart, refers to the difference in sea-surface temperatures across opposite parts of the Indian Ocean. "We expect to have some enhanced rainfall over several parts of the country."
Kenya's meteorological service said on 5 November that the 2026 El Niño was strengthening toward a very strong event, with above-average October–December rainfall expected across many counties. The Kenya Meteorological Department warns that November is typically the peak rainfall month of the short rainy season, which normally runs from October to December.
The Nairobi River Basin Regeneration programme, a government initiative aimed at restoring the city's rivers, found that settlements near waterways and areas with weak regulatory enforcement face heightened flooding risks. The programme recommended establishing a protective "buffer" around rivers and implementing "humane relocation" of communities where necessary. However, rising poverty has driven many people to settle close to rivers in the first place, making such relocations politically and socially fraught.
What preparations are underway?
Anyone forced to leave their homes will be relocated to 167 designated holding grounds where relief food and supplies will be distributed, according to Simiyu. However, the adequacy of these arrangements remains uncertain given the scale of potential displacement.
Kenya's short-rains season is forecast to continue into January 2027 in Tana River County, where the county outlook warns of possible floods and flash floods. On 8 November, a forecast called for rain and thunderstorms in Nairobi and 29 other counties over the following 24 hours. The Kenya Meteorological Department's October–December outlook anticipated above-average rainfall in more than 40 counties, with prolonged wet spells and occasional isolated storms expected to begin in some areas during the second and third weeks of October.
National governments across the continent are attempting to prepare for El Niño's impact, but the phenomenon's full extent remains impossible to predict. In West Africa, forecasters fear El Niño could bring extreme heat and prolonged drought, potentially triggering a farming crisis across the semi-arid Sahel region south of the Sahara and southern parts of the continent, where crop failure risks are high. Communities already grappling with poor housing and rampant poverty, like Kibera, face the prospect of conditions deteriorating further, while parts of Somalia already endure a devastating drought that El Niño could worsen.
Back in her home in Kibera, Shikoli and her family prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. "I want to move," she says. "But I don't have the means. We just have to persevere and leave it to God."
