Canadian poet Anne Carson and Chinese experimental writer Can Xue are the bookmakers' frontrunners to claim this year's Nobel Prize in Literature, with the award set to be announced on Thursday. Both writers carry odds of 10/1 to win the world's most prestigious literary accolade, according to Ladbrokes.
The prize carries significant financial weight: according to reporting on the Nobel Foundation's announcement, the award has been increased to 12 million Swedish Krona (approximately £900,000), up from 11 million the previous year.
Who are the leading contenders?
Carson, aged 76, has built her reputation on a distinctive hybrid approach that merges poetry with prose while weaving contemporary narratives alongside classical mythology. Her 1998 verse novel Autobiography of Red stands among her most celebrated works—a queer coming-of-age narrative that reimagines a Greek poem centred on Heracles.
Can Xue, 73, whose birth name is Deng Xiaohua, has emerged as a consistent contender in recent years. She has twice reached the longlist for the International Booker Prize: once for her novel Love in the New Millennium, translated by Annelise Finegan Wasmoen, and again for her short story collection I Live in the Slums, translated by Karen Gernant and Chen Zeping.
Japanese novelist Haruki Murakami follows at 14/1 odds. Among the most commercially successful writers in the running, Murakami has achieved global recognition through works such as Norwegian Wood and Kafka on the Shore.
What other writers are in contention?
Australian avant-garde writer Gerald Murnane and American postmodern novelist Thomas Pynchon both carry 16/1 odds, placing them in the next tier of contenders.
At 20/1 odds sits a group of seven writers: Margaret Atwood, Cristina Rivera Garza, Enrique Vila-Matas, Jamaica Kincaid, Lídia Jorge, Lyudmila Ulitskaya and Michel Houellebecq.
Atwood, the Canadian novelist behind The Handmaid's Tale, has already accumulated numerous major literary honours, including the Booker Prize and the Giller Prize. Rivera Garza, a Mexican author, won the Pulitzer Prize in 2024 for Liliana's Invincible Summer, a memoir documenting the life and murder of her 20-year-old sister by a former partner.
Vila-Matas ranks among Spain's most significant contemporary novelists, recognised for his fusion of fiction with essay form. In 2020, he reached the International Booker Prize longlist for his metafictional work Mac and His Problem, translated by Margaret Jull Costa and Sophie Hughes.
Kincaid, an Antiguan-American writer, has gained prominence through novels including Annie John, A Small Place and Lucy, which frequently examine family dynamics and the destructive legacy of colonialism. Poet Jackie Kay observed in 2022 that Kincaid "is a writer you don't just read; she is a writer that takes you back to yourself."
Longer odds apply to Karl Ove Knausgård, Alexis Wright, Colm Tóibín, César Aira, Deborah Levy, Don DeLillo, Emmanuel Carrère, Leila Aboulela, Michael Ondaatje, Mircea Cărtărescu and Salman Rushdie.
How is the Nobel Prize in Literature selected?
The selection process operates with considerable secrecy. According to the Swedish Academy's procedures, the formal nomination process began a year before the 2026 announcement. Eligible nominators include members of the Academy itself, university professors specialising in literature, previous Nobel laureates in Literature, and representatives of officially recognised writers' organisations.
What is the recent history of the prize?
The 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature was awarded to Hungarian writer László Krasznahorkai, recognised by the Nobel Foundation for an oeuvre that "in the midst of apocalyptic terror, reaffirms the power of art." Earlier recipients include Han Kang, Jon Fosse, Annie Ernaux and Abdulrazak Gurnah.
When will the winner be announced?
The 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature will be announced on Thursday, 8 October, at 13:00 CEST at the earliest, when the Swedish Academy makes its decision public.
Key Facts
- Anne Carson and Can Xue share the shortest odds at 10/1 to win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature
- The prize money has increased to 12 million Swedish Krona, up from 11 million in 2025
- Haruki Murakami, one of the world's bestselling authors, carries 14/1 odds as the third favourite
- The announcement will take place on Thursday, 8 October, at 13:00 CEST
- The selection process involves nominators including Academy members, university professors, previous laureates and writers' organisation representatives
