Welsh Labour has declared that support for the Flying Start early years programme is non-negotiable in its ongoing budget negotiations with Plaid Cymru's Welsh government. Party leader Ken Skates has made the scheme's continuation a condition of Labour backing any budget proposal, raising the stakes in talks that follow the rejection of the government's supplementary spending plan.
The dispute centres on how to fund Plaid Cymru's flagship childcare expansion while maintaining targeted support for disadvantaged children. The Welsh government has indicated it may reshape Flying Start rather than preserve it unchanged, prompting Labour to warn that any cuts would trigger a withdrawal of support for the budget process.
Launched in 2007, Flying Start was designed to support children in Wales's poorest areas with language, social and physical development before school entry. The scheme provides 12.5 hours of free childcare weekly for two-year-olds and is being expanded as part of a broader policy to deliver 20 hours of free childcare weekly to all children aged nine months to four years.
What is the dispute about?
The Welsh government faces a fundamental challenge: funding its ambitious childcare expansion while maintaining specialist support for vulnerable children. Plaid Cymru, which governs without a Senedd majority, must secure opposition backing to pass budgets. On 14 July 2026, the Senedd rejected the First Supplementary Budget 2026-2027, which included £55 million to accelerate the childcare rollout.
The government's latest estimate suggests the full childcare policy would require between £250 million and £500 million in additional annual funding, depending on take-up rates. This scale of investment has prompted questions about whether existing programmes like Flying Start can be maintained in their current form.
What has the Welsh government said?
Plaid Cymru's Minister for Government Effectiveness, Dafydd Trystan Davies, has declined to guarantee that Flying Start will remain unchanged. When asked whether the scheme would survive until the next Senedd election, he stated:
I don't think I can guarantee that any single programme will be in its current form.
Davies acknowledged the value of Flying Start's specialist components, saying:
What is really strong and important with Flying Start is those areas around speech and language therapy, is around the health aspect. So, can you guarantee that those provisions of Flying Start will be there as part of the [childcare] offer? Clearly, it has to be.
He suggested that councils delivering Flying Start services with greater effectiveness could serve as models for broader rollout, implying a shift toward more universal provision rather than targeted support. A Welsh government spokesperson stated that
the support available to disadvantaged children will be enhanced as a result of our offerand that
these are all matters under discussion by the Expert Group on Childcare as we work on rolling out the next phase of this ambitious policy.
What is Labour's position?
Ken Skates has made clear that Flying Start's preservation is a condition of Labour's participation in budget negotiations. He told BBC Walescast:
It appears they're looking at using Flying Start money to pay for something they never costed during the election or in their manifesto, the childcare offer, which will benefit a lot of middle class and upper class families. But it's going to be people and children who benefit from Flying Start who will pay the price.
Skates stated:
I would be deeply disappointed if Plaid didn't commit to the future of Flying Start.When asked whether changes to Flying Start would exclude Labour from supporting the budget, he replied:
For us as a party, I think it has to be a red line. If Plaid Cymru think they can take the best of Flying Start and apply it in different areas, I'm afraid they're going to let people down badly. So, I'm afraid, if they're talking about Flying Start, then they're going to have to do it by themselves, without our consent or support and they won't be getting a budget approval from us.
Labour's argument rests on the claim that Flying Start's targeted approach reaches children in the poorest areas, whereas a more universal childcare system would primarily benefit middle and upper-income families.
What do other parties and experts say?
Steffan Evans, head of the Bevan Foundation, offered a more nuanced perspective on the trade-off between targeted and universal provision. He noted:
The majority of children living in poverty are not in Flying Start areas. So, if we want to get a childcare system that helps child development in terms of the education and parents back into work and gets to those children in poverty, you do have to strike a compromise, I think, in terms of how that operates. And that might mean going towards something more universal to get to more children, rather than something that's perfect, but only answers part of the problem.
Reform's minister for fairness, families and communities, Cristiana Emsley, criticised Plaid Cymru's priorities, stating:
Plaid Cymru are raising the prospect of cutting funding for vulnerable children while continuing to spend money on overseas embassies, its Nation of Sanctuary programme and tree planting in Uganda. At a time when families across Wales are struggling with the cost of living and children are in need of support, it is clear Plaid have the wrong priorities.
What is the recent history of these negotiations?
Plaid Cymru's minority government has been dependent on securing deals with opposition parties since the May 2026 election. The rejection of the supplementary budget in July blocked not only the £55 million childcare acceleration but also other spending commitments, including NHS waiting list funding, free school meals expansion, and the £1 bus fare pilot for young people.
Following that defeat, a Welsh Government source described budget discussions as "either happening or scheduled to happen with all" opposition parties after the summer budget defeat, signalling renewed efforts to build consensus. The government has also committed to completing the full childcare rollout within the current four-year Senedd term, according to statements made in late August 2026.
Progress on Flying Start expansion has continued in parallel. Swansea was announced as offering Flying Start childcare to all two-year-old children on 10 February 2026, with the Welsh Government investing an extra £25 million that year to expand the scheme across Wales.
What happens next?
Budget negotiations between Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour are ongoing, with Flying Start's status emerging as a central point of contention. The Welsh government has indicated that decisions on the childcare rollout's next phase remain under discussion by the Expert Group on Childcare. Official statistics on Flying Start childcare and services are scheduled for update in October 2026, which may provide clarity on current provision levels and inform the policy direction.
Deputy First Minister Sioned Williams is expected to update the Senedd "in due course" on the childcare rollout timetable, according to recent statements. The outcome of these negotiations will determine not only the future of Flying Start but also whether the Welsh government can secure the cross-party support necessary to pass its full budget for the coming year.
