Aryna Sabalenka arrives at Flushing Meadows as the defending champion and world No. 1, but her grip on both titles is under unprecedented threat. The 28-year-old Belarusian has compiled a 17-7 record since her triumphant Miami campaign in early spring, a dramatic dip that has left her clinging to the top ranking heading into the tournament that begins on Sunday, 30 August 2026. She must win the title to retain her position, as she carries 2,000 ranking points to defend and now trails Elena Rybakina by only 434 points.
Sabalenka's collapse from dominance has been swift and bewildering. After becoming only the fifth woman to win the Indian Wells and Miami titles back-to-back and establishing a 3,000-point lead at the summit, she has failed to reach a single WTA Tour hard-court final between Miami and the US Open. Her recent performances have been marked by mental lapses in low-pressure situations rather than technical deficiencies. In Cincinnati last week, she squandered what should have been a routine victory, leading Sara Bejlek 5-1 in the first-set tie-break and 4-1 in the second set before suffering a straight-sets defeat that ended 7-6 (9-7), 6-4. At her previous tournament in Toronto, her serve crumbled in a last-16 loss to world No. 19 Ekaterina Alexandrova. During the clay-court swing, she capitulated after winning the first set against Hailey Baptiste in Madrid, Sorana Cirstea in Rome, and most notably Diana Shnaider at the French Open.
When asked if she felt confident she could rediscover her form on the hard courts where she has thrived, Sabalenka responded with characteristic defiance:
Absolutely. These tough lessons are definitely going to make me way, way stronger and working even harder.She added:
I work on my mental side of the game. I've been trying to reset my mind and to come back stronger. It's only a matter of time for me to come back.
Sabalenka is attempting to become the first woman since Serena Williams to win three straight US Open singles titles. Her four Grand Slam singles titles—two Australian Open and two US Open triumphs, all on hard courts—are more than most players can dream of. However, she has also lost four major finals and six semi-finals, despite a consistency on the biggest stages that is unrivalled among her peers. According to Reuters, she had won 11 of her last 15 matches before the US Open while maintaining the world No. 1 ranking, suggesting her form may be stabilising ahead of the tournament.
How will the ranking battle unfold?
Elena Rybakina currently sits at No. 1 in the live standings and controls her own destiny. If Rybakina reaches the semi-finals, she will become the new world No. 1 regardless of all other results. However, questions linger over her fitness following an ankle injury sustained in the Cincinnati quarter-finals when she was forced to retire from her match against Iga Swiatek. According to the official draw, Rybakina opens her campaign against Thea Frodin.
Should either Coco Gauff or Jessica Pegula capture the title while Rybakina fails to reach the semi-finals, either of them could claim top spot. Rybakina can secure the number one ranking if her nearest rivals—Sabalenka, Pegula and Gauff—do not win the title. This mounting pressure adds another layer of complexity to Sabalenka's challenge, though after 99 consecutive weeks as the undisputed best player in the world, the competitive intensity may be exactly what she requires to rediscover her form.
What is the state of the other top contenders?
Gauff has rebuilt her confidence following a difficult period. A year after she spent the lead-in week to last year's US Open struggling emotionally, she has regained faith in her serve and demonstrated some of her finest tennis during recent tournaments. She already has the experience of winning in New York after claiming her first major there in 2023, and she arrives in peak form after beating Pegula to the Cincinnati trophy last week.
Swiatek, the 2022 US Open champion, appears similarly revitalized after battling anxiety and nerves throughout much of the season. Her recent triumph in Toronto has injected fresh momentum into her campaign. Pegula, 32, has been ultra-consistent for several seasons without landing a major title, but the 2024 finalist hopes her runs to the Washington and Cincinnati finals will provide the platform for another crack at her home Slam. She maintains her reputation for consistency and will pose a formidable threat to her rivals.
The depth of women's tennis is underscored by a striking statistic: every player ranked inside the top 11 currently holds a WTA 1000 title or above, demonstrating that each possesses the credentials to win the sport's biggest tournaments. Beneath the leading quartet, the rest of the top 10 also hold either a Grand Slam or WTA 1,000 title—a group led by French Open winner Mirra Andreeva, Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova and six-time major winner Iga Swiatek.
You can just see how the depth is pretty crazy,said Pegula. According to the official women's singles draw released on 27 August, Sabalenka faces Camila Osorio in her opening match, while Pegula plays Elena-Gabriela Ruse and Gauff meets Zeynep Sonmez.
How has the men's draw been transformed?
The men's tournament presents a starkly different picture. For the third Grand Slam in a row, the rivalry between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz has been put on hold. The pair swept all eight major titles between them in 2024 and 2025, with Alcaraz extending that run with victory at this year's Australian Open. But they have not competed at the same Grand Slam since.
Alcaraz's absence through injury has fundamentally altered the competitive landscape. His withdrawal from the French Open in the second round due to a knee injury cracked the draw wide open, and his current situation offers little prospect of a serious challenge. Alcaraz is competing with a right wrist injury and has completed only a few weeks of training, making his prospects appear remote. His rustiness was evident in mixed doubles competition, where his cautious approach to serving and overall hesitancy reinforced concerns about his readiness. A day after the 23-year-old Spaniard announced his plan to return, Sinner revealed he had been ruled out with a knee issue.
It's kind of weird. We are not going see each other for, like, six months now, seven months,said Alcaraz.
Alexander Zverev capitalized on Alcaraz's absence in Paris and arrives at Flushing Meadows as the top seed with genuine title aspirations. He is looking to reach a third straight major final, having won his first Slam at the French Open before losing to Sinner at Wimbledon. The two breakthrough performers in the weeks preceding the US Open—Montreal and Cincinnati champions Ben Shelton and Arthur Fils—are young players who have long viewed themselves as capable of competing for major titles. However, the draw has conspired against them: these close friends face each other in the fourth round, meaning one will be eliminated before the later stages.
Who else can contend?
Beyond the favorites, the field remains genuinely open. Flavio Cobolli, who reached the French Open final, continues to produce some of the finest tennis of his career, having reached the Cincinnati semi-final. Rafael Jódar, a 19-year-old whose ranking has soared from No. 369 a year ago, continues his remarkable ascent. A cohort of American players—Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, Learner Tien, and Brandon Nakashima—have all discovered their peak form at an opportune moment. Canadian Open champion Ben Shelton and Cincinnati finalist Frances Tiafoe lead a strong American challenge, while 2024 finalist Taylor Fritz is another hope capable of ending a 23-year wait for a home men's champion. Félix Auger-Aliassime, seeded third, will attempt to replicate the exceptional level he demonstrated on these courts last year when he reached the semi-final.
What about Novak Djokovic's prospects?
The most intriguing question concerns Novak Djokovic's trajectory over the coming weeks. Sinner's absence and the uncertainty around Alcaraz's fitness will galvanise the rest of the chasing pack—particularly 39-year-old Djokovic. He is a four-time US Open champion and reached the semi-finals last year, where he lost in straight sets to Alcaraz. The Serb great, a 24-time Grand Slam champion, insists he has not put an "expiry date" on his extraordinary career. He continues to position himself competitively at the majors, reaching the Australian Open final and Wimbledon semi-final, yet he must manage an unrelenting stream of physical ailments that intensify over the course of a fortnight. He has reached at least the semi-finals in six of the past seven Slams, but has not gone all the way since triumphing at the 2023 US Open. His pursuit of a standalone record 25th Grand Slam title, which would move him clear of Australia's Margaret Court on the all-time list, remains viable in New York, though these are not ordinary circumstances and he is far from an ordinary tennis player.
Recent developments
Sabalenka and Djokovic were knocked out in the first round of the US Open mixed doubles on 25 August in a deciding-set loss to Katerina Siniakova and Henry Patten, according to reporting from the New York Post. The mixed doubles event was revamped last year to feature superstar pairings, which is why the two champions were entered together. Despite the setback, Sabalenka remains the favorite for the women's title at +320 in DraftKings odds, according to the same source.
When does the tournament begin?
The women's singles main draw begins on 30 August 2026, with sessions running through 1 September. The women's singles final is set for 12 September 2026. The men's singles main draw features first-round matches starting on 30 and 31 August 2026.
Key Facts
- Sabalenka has compiled a 17-7 record since early April without reaching a final, extending her struggles into the US Open, though she has won 11 of her last 15 matches before the tournament.
- Rybakina will become world No. 1 if she reaches the semi-finals, regardless of other results, while Sabalenka must win the title to retain her ranking and her 99-week run at the top.
- Alcaraz's wrist injury and limited training time have removed the primary favorite from the men's draw, while Sinner's knee injury means the pair will not compete at the same Grand Slam for the third consecutive major.
- Every player ranked in the women's top 11 holds a WTA 1000 title or above, reflecting unprecedented depth at the sport's highest level.
- Sabalenka is attempting to become the first woman since Serena Williams to win three straight US Open singles titles.
