Schools in Welsh County Struggle to Attract Pupils Due to Falling Birth Rates

Schools in a Welsh county are reportedly "struggling" to fill available spaces, leading to competition for pupils, according to a member of the Cylch Meithrin board.

Anna Webb, from Caerphilly, has observed a significant change in behaviour as families adjust following the pandemic and cope with rising living costs.

This situation follows a Caerphilly council report highlighting a "continual falling birth rate," which has decreased from approximately 2,000 births annually to around 1,400 over the past decade.

A spokesperson for the council noted that the decline in birth rates aligns with trends observed across Wales and has impacted the demand for school places.

The council report also indicated that this "mismatch" has affected school budgets and the sustainability of educational institutions.

According to the report, "significantly fewer" children are entering the primary school system, resulting in "surplus places across many schools."

It further stated:

"There is a risk that our school infrastructure will not reflect future demand, leading to inefficient use of assets and missed opportunities for learners."

Insights from Local Nursery Board Member

Anna Webb, aged 51, has been a trustee board member for two Cylch Meithrin nurseries in Caerphilly county for the past 12 years.

She described how nurseries were "flourishing" prior to the pandemic, with waiting lists "bursting at the seams." However, she has witnessed a behavioural shift since then.

"I think everybody reprioritised their lives around what was important,"

she said.

"When we came out of pandemic, the number of children coming through definitely declined."

Anna explained that the post-pandemic period has made life "a lot more difficult for people" due to rising costs.

"The effects of Brexit have also been felt quite deeply in the valleys,"

she added.

She is aware of schools within Caerphilly county that "are struggling to get numbers in" and are even competing with each other to attract pupils.

"My daughter is in a local Welsh-medium primary school and there's usually about 30 children in her class,"

Anna said.

"Numbers have fallen as children have moved to different schools."

Community Observations on Changing Opportunities

Jane Grandon, 43, a resident of Nelson, has noticed changes in the opportunities available to her children.

Her eldest son, now 22, played rugby as a child when the local team had "20-plus members" all from the Nelson area.

She noted that her youngest child, aged 11, currently plays in a team of "just 12 children."

"He is the only child from Nelson,"

she added.

Childcare Offer and Related Concerns

Under the Childcare Offer, parents and guardians can claim up to 30 hours of free childcare weekly, provided they meet certain criteria.

However, concerns have been raised about the availability of places and the cost of additional, unfunded hours.

One family in Monmouthshire chose to relocate to Gloucestershire to qualify for childcare support available in England.

School Closures Linked to Falling Birth Rates

Rhydri Primary School in Rudry and Cam Glas Infants School in Llanbradach are among schools that have closed in recent years.

Both closures cited falling birth rates as a factor contributing to reduced pupil numbers and increased operational costs.

Similar closures have occurred elsewhere in Wales, such as Ysgol Bro Cynllaith in Powys, which closed in August 2024.

In July 2025, a former council leader in Pembrokeshire described the trend in his county as "unsustainable" after declining pupil numbers prompted a consultation on further school closures.

Budget Reductions and Financial Challenges

Schools across Caerphilly county are expected to face budget reductions averaging between £11,000 and £60,000 next year.

During a council education committee meeting in November, it was reported that schools anticipate budget deficits this year totaling an estimated £6 million.

Leane Sykes, the council's director of finance, explained that schools constitute a significant portion of the budget and therefore "cannot be immune" from cutbacks.