Rising National Security Concerns Among Australians
Nearly half of Australians anticipate a foreign military attack on the country within the next five years, reflecting a significant rise in anxiety over national security, according to a recent study.
The Australian National University’s National Security College report revealed that by 2026, two-thirds of those surveyed, including a growing number of teenagers and young adults, expressed concerns about national security issues.
Study Details and Demographic Insights
Conducted between November 2024 and February 2026, the study found that 60% of Australians were worried about national security. The most notable increase in concern was among the 18 to 24 age group, with 55% reporting worry about national security, up from 22% in November 2024.
Respondents identified several threats they believed likely by the end of the decade, including AI-enabled attacks, disinformation campaigns, critical supply disruptions, impacts of climate change, foreign interference, and severe economic crises, with 85% or more considering these probable.
Concerns Over Military Conflict and Domestic Threats
Australia’s potential involvement in overseas military conflicts was a prominent worry, with 69% of those polled in July 2025 rating such an event as likely to almost certain within five years.
The surveys and focus groups, which gathered opinions from over 20,000 Australians, were conducted in November 2024, July 2025, and February 2026, prior to the recent Israel and US conflict with Iran.
While an onshore attack by a foreign military was the least likely event on the list, 45% still considered it likely, very likely, or almost certain within five years when surveyed in July 2025.
This type of attack was identified as the greatest concern, with 43% of respondents believing it would have "major consequences" and 36% describing the impact as "catastrophic."
Worry about domestic terrorism has also increased, with 72% of respondents in February 2026 rating such an event as a "serious" concern, up from 55% in November 2024, following the Bondi attack.
Perceptions of National Preparedness
The findings indicate that most Australians feel the country is ill-prepared to handle these threats. More than half of those surveyed believed Australia was only slightly prepared or not at all prepared for a foreign military attack, severe economic crisis, critical infrastructure attack, or supply disruption.
Prof Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College, commented on the study’s findings:
"In a time when our security landscape is changing, it would be wrong to assume that Australians are complacent."
"The study’s results showed most Australians were concerned about national security and wanted more information."
Context of Global Events and Energy Supply Challenges
The study’s release coincides with the latest Middle East conflict, which has disrupted global fuel supplies and caused prices to surge.
Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen disclosed on Sunday that six oil tankers destined for Australia have been affected.
"The federal government was working to replace the tankers – with some already substituted – but conceded there would likely be ‘bumps in supply’ in the coming months."
