England's adult obesity rate has roughly doubled since 1993, according to new analysis from the King's Fund, with 14 million adults now classified as obese despite 14 separate government strategies launched over the past three decades to address the issue. The analysis found that if obesity rates had remained at their 1993 level, there would be seven million fewer obese adults in England today. The findings raise fresh questions about why decades of policy intervention have failed to reverse the trend.
The King's Fund analysis found that 15% of England's population aged 16 and over was classified as obese in 1993, a figure that climbed to a record 30% by 2024. The steepest rise was recorded among 16-to-24 year-olds, whose obesity rate jumped from just 6% in 1993 to 18% in 2024 - meaning roughly one million young adults now live with obesity, some 700,000 more than would be expected had rates stayed flat.
Dave Buck, senior fellow for public health at the King's Fund, described the rise among young people as troubling.
"clearly worrying"
He said governments have repeatedly promised action without delivering it.
"talked the talk, but not sufficiently walked the walk"
"This analysis shows the scale of the failure to take the necessary action on tackling this obesity timebomb."
How do other estimates compare?
Figures vary slightly depending on the source and year measured. According to the Department of Health and Social Care's obesity profile from May 2025, 26.5% of adults in England were estimated to be living with obesity in 2023 to 2024 - somewhat lower than the King's Fund's newer 30% figure. Separately, NHS England Digital data indicates adult obesity has held relatively steady at around 28% to 29% since 2017, following a period of rapid increase between 1993 and 2008. The House of Commons Library has separately calculated that obesity rose from 14.9% in 1993 to 28.9% in 2022, with the combined rate of overweight or obese adults climbing from 52.9% to 64.3% over the same period, a figure corroborated by Public Health England's Fingertips health trends data.
Historical data suggests the steepest climb happened early on. The Institute for Government has found that more than half of the total rise in adult obesity between 1993 and 2019 occurred within just eight years, from 1993 to 2001. Looking back further, the UK Health Security Agency has noted that obesity prevalence in 1980 stood at an estimated 6% for men and 9% for women aged 16 and over, underscoring how dramatically the picture has shifted since then, according to a UKHSA blog post. The trend is not confined to adults: a BMJ-linked analysis found childhood overweight and obesity rose fastest among 11- to 15-year-olds, particularly boys, climbing from 27.5% in 1995 to 42% in 2019, according to a BMJ Group analysis.
The King's Fund findings also echo other recent research into obesity trends among younger people. Our earlier coverage found that new obesity diagnoses in England are climbing fastest among young adults, with rates up nearly 20% among people in their 30s and 16% among those in their 20s. Separately, researchers at Imperial College London have flagged a related concern: a worrying rise in type 2 diabetes diagnoses among women in their 20s, which they link to post-pandemic increases in obesity.
Why has obesity risen so sharply?
The increase reflects broad shifts in how people work, eat and spend money over three decades. The expansion of desk-based service and office jobs, alongside a decline in manual and manufacturing work, has left more people sitting for longer and moving less throughout the day. At the same time, food has become cheaper in relative terms, driven partly by intensified competition among major supermarkets and the proliferation of fast food outlets and delivery services.
Buck explained that these combined changes have made it far simpler to consume more calories than needed, or to consume foods that contribute disproportionately to weight gain.
"far easier to over-consume or consume in ways that add to our weight"
"With things like deliveries, it's very easy and convenient now to click a button and you get a takeaway at your door, so we're making it much easier to have high fat, high salt and high sugar foods."
Access to unhealthy food is not evenly distributed. Takeaways high in fat, salt and sugar are more concentrated in deprived areas, where obesity risk is already elevated. Less healthy supermarket products have also become cheaper in real terms over the past 30 years, a trend compounded by several recent cost-of-living crises that have squeezed household food budgets.
What has the government done so far?
Obesity is a recognised risk factor for numerous chronic conditions, including type 2 diabetes, heart disease, high blood pressure, osteoarthritis and several cancers. External estimates put the combined cost of obesity and overweight to the UK economy at approximately £126bn annually, of which around £12bn falls on the NHS - roughly 7% of its yearly budget.
Since 1992, the year before obesity data collection began in England, successive governments have published 14 national obesity strategies, yet campaigners say the pace of meaningful action has consistently lagged behind the scale of the problem. Tony Blair's government banned junk food advertising during children's television programming, though some campaigners pushed for broader restrictions at the time. Gordon Brown later launched his own strategy aiming to reverse what he called the rising tide of obesity after taking office as prime minister in 2007.
The Conservative government introduced a UK-wide sugar levy on soft drinks in 2018, prompting several manufacturers to reformulate products to fall below the taxable sugar threshold. In his final weeks as prime minister in 2016, David Cameron considered banning "buy one get one free" promotions on unhealthy products in supermarkets and restricting junk food advertising on television. Those proposals were never implemented, however - partly overtaken by the coronavirus pandemic, and later shelved when ministers argued that restricting promotional deals would unfairly burden shoppers amid surging inflation. Both Theresa May and Boris Johnson voiced support for further action at various points, but follow-through proved elusive.
In January 2026, the current Labour government finally implemented a ban on junk food advertising before 21:00 on television, alongside an all-day ban online, a measure that had been under consideration for almost a decade. Additional restrictions on the sale of unhealthy food items, first promised by Labour in 2024, have yet to take effect. A recent parliamentary select committee report has urged ministers to go further, including by preventing new fast food outlets from opening near schools.
What role are weight-loss drugs playing?
GLP-1 drugs such as Wegovy are increasingly used to treat obesity, though NHS eligibility remains tightly restricted to adults with a BMI of at least 35 who also have at least one pre-existing weight-related health condition. People classified as overweight rather than obese but who have cardiovascular disease can also qualify for the drug. Mounjaro has been available through specialist NHS weight-loss clinics in England and Wales since March 2025, though many people are choosing to pay for these medications privately rather than wait for NHS access.
A new daily weight-loss pill is already on the market in the United States and could reach the UK before long. Researchers have also been working on tools to better target treatment: as previously reported, UK scientists have developed an AI-driven tool called Obscore designed to identify people at the highest risk of obesity-related diseases, potentially helping the NHS prioritise who receives weight-loss treatments first.
The Department of Health and Social Care maintains that weight-loss medications are only one strand of a wider strategy, alongside curbing the promotion of unhealthy food and drink, encouraging physical activity, and helping people choose healthier diets. England's Chief Medical Officer, Professor Sir Chris Whitty, said earlier this year that relying on medication as the sole response to obesity would represent a failure of society more broadly.
"societal failure"
Whitty pointed to countries such as France, which have managed to keep obesity levels stable, as evidence that alternative approaches can work if properly implemented.
Key Facts
- England's adult obesity rate rose from 15% in 1993 to 30% in 2024, according to King's Fund analysis - though government and NHS figures put the more recent rate closer to 26.5%-29%.
- Obesity among 16-24 year-olds tripled from 6% in 1993 to 18% in 2024, equating to roughly one million young adults, 700,000 more than expected without the rise.
- Obesity and overweight combined cost the UK economy an estimated £126bn a year, including £12bn to the NHS.
- Fourteen national obesity strategies have been published in England since 1992, yet rates have continued climbing.
- More than half of the total rise in adult obesity between 1993 and 2019 occurred in just eight years, from 1993 to 2001, according to the Institute for Government.
