Britain's food and drink trade deficit has widened to more than £21bn – its largest since 2000 – as a combination of geopolitical conflict, US tariffs and post-Brexit trading friction have suppressed overseas sales while imports have surged. Industry leaders are urging the government to treat domestic food production as a matter of national security.
The deterioration reflects mounting challenges facing UK manufacturers and farmers. Export volumes in the first half of 2026 fell by more than a tenth (11.7%) to 4bn kg, reaching levels comparable only to the height of the Covid pandemic and the aftermath of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, according to analysis by the Food & Drink Federation (FDF).
Meanwhile, according to the FDF's Q1 2026 trade snapshot, export values fell 4.8% year-on-year to £5.7bn while imports rose 2.6% to £16.3bn, further widening the deficit. reported that UK food and drink exports in Q1 2026 fell 8.9% by volume to the lowest level in a decade excluding the pandemic period, with the FDF highlighting that export volumes were the third lowest since 2000.
How have trade relationships shifted?
Shipments to the European Union have continued their downward trajectory, declining 0.9% in value as the additional costs and administrative burden of post-Brexit trading persist. The picture beyond the EU is even more concerning, with exports falling 6.9% in value terms during the first half of 2026.
Disruption in Middle Eastern markets has been particularly acute. Exports to the United Arab Emirates have fallen by almost a quarter, a decline attributed to the impact of the US-Israel conflict on Iran and regional trade flows. Across the Atlantic, the introduction of a 10% US import tariff has hit cross-Atlantic sales by 16.5%. According to the FDF's analysis, US imports into the UK rose 11.5% to £419.5m, shrinking the UK's food and drink export surplus with the US by 69.3% to £110m in Q1 2026.
Why have imports increased so sharply?
Food and drink imports reached 19.1bn kg in the first half of 2026, the second highest ever recorded, surpassed only by the same period in 2025. Imports from outside the EU have grown by more than a fifth since 2023 as trade restrictions have been eased through new agreements, particularly with Australia, which now sends 25% more in value terms to the UK than a year ago. These Australian shipments include meat, oils, vegetables and whisky.
Domestic policy has also contributed to rising import levels. The removal of tariffs on a range of manufactured foods, including chocolate and biscuits, earlier this year as part of the former chancellor Rachel Reeves's cost-of-living package has increased the competitiveness of imported goods. EU food producers have also stepped up deliveries to the UK, with value terms rising 0.8% year-on-year as they have recovered in volume following the initial Brexit adjustment.
What are industry leaders saying?
Tom Bradshaw, president of the National Farmers' Union of England and Wales, characterised the figures as a critical warning.
These figures should be a wake-up call. At a time of growing geopolitical uncertainty, we cannot afford to take our food production capacity for granted.
Bradshaw stressed that the widening trade deficit underscores the necessity for sustained government backing of British production and recognition of a fundamental principle:
food security is national security.
He outlined the scale of the challenge facing farm businesses:
The pressures facing farm businesses are immense, from rising costs and regulatory burdens to extreme weather and global market volatility. If government is serious about food security, economic growth and national resilience, it must create the conditions that give businesses the confidence to invest, innovate and grow.
The FDF, which represents hundreds of food and beverage producers, has characterised the pressures on manufacturers as
significant and growingas the cost of energy, ingredients, transport, packaging and labour continues to rise. The trade body has also flagged changing regulation as an additional burden on the industry.
Karen Betts, chief executive of the FDF, drew a direct link between tariff policy and competitive disadvantage:
Our food and drink trade deficit is growing and is now the largest it's been in over 25 years. In a world beset by conflict and the ever-increasing impacts of climate change, this poses some stark questions about our food security. When the government then chooses to remove tariffs on, for example, biscuits imported from China, it's not surprising that they'll be sold more cheaply here than biscuits made in the UK.
What is the broader context?
The trade deficit figures reflect a longer-term trend of declining food self-sufficiency. According to Farmers Weekly, UK food, feed and drink imports reached £67.8bn in 2025, while exports slipped to £25.7bn, pushing the wider food trade gap to £42.1bn. The FDF has linked weaker overseas sales to rising production costs, trade barriers and US tariffs, which have made UK manufacturers less competitive in global markets.
What happens next?
The FDF's Trade Snapshots page indicates that its latest trade analysis is being updated around 24 September 2026, suggesting the next published update is imminent. These regular snapshots will provide further insight into whether the downward trend in exports continues or stabilises in response to changing market conditions and policy interventions.
