Scottish Parliament Election Polls Indicate SNP Lead
With only 10 days remaining until the Scottish Parliament election on 7 May, opinion polls indicate that the Scottish National Party (SNP) is expected to remain the largest party, although its popularity has declined compared to the 2021 election.
Meanwhile, Reform UK and Labour appear to be engaged in a close contest for second place. However, the polls still show sufficient uncertainty to suggest that the final days of campaigning could be crucial in shaping the election outcome.
Polling Data and Vote Intention
Since the dissolution of parliament on 25 March, seven polling companies have conducted surveys on Holyrood vote intention. On average, these polls place the SNP at 35% of the constituency vote, which is 17 percentage points ahead of second-placed Labour.
On the regional list ballot, the SNP's average support is 29%, a smaller lead but still approximately 12 points ahead of its nearest competitors.
However, only two of these polls accounted for the fact that the Scottish Greens are contesting just half a dozen constituencies, meaning most voters will not be able to support the Greens on their constituency ballot, which is coloured lilac.
This factor makes it highly unlikely that the Greens will secure as much as 7% of the constituency vote, as some polls have suggested.
Given that the Scottish Greens support independence, it is anticipated that many voters who would otherwise support the Greens on the constituency ballot may switch their vote to the SNP, potentially increasing the SNP's lead.
Of the two polls that considered the Greens' limited constituency presence, one estimated the SNP at 41%, while the other maintained the SNP at 35%.
Regardless, the SNP's support is significantly lower than the 48% constituency vote and 40% list vote it achieved in 2021.
Indeed, if the SNP were to win only 29% of the list vote, it would represent its lowest performance on that ballot since 2003.
Party Support Trends
Despite the SNP's decline, it maintains a clear lead because both the Conservatives and Labour have also lost support since 2021.
Support for the Conservatives, who finished second in the last election, has decreased as sharply as that for the SNP.
Labour, which performed poorly in 2021, has also seen its support decline, potentially heading towards its worst result ever in a Scottish Parliament election.
In contrast, Reform UK, which secured only 0.2% of the list vote in 2021, is now level with Labour on both the constituency and list ballots.
The Greens, polling at 14% on the list vote, appear poised for their best result to date.
The Liberal Democrats, with 10% support on both ballots, seem set to achieve their best result since the 2010 Westminster election coalition with the Conservatives.
Scottish politics currently appears highly fragmented, reflecting broader trends across the UK.
SNP's Ambition for Majority and Independence Referendum
SNP leader John Swinney has expressed the ambition to secure an overall majority, which he argues would provide a mandate to hold another independence referendum, similar to the situation when the SNP won a majority in 2011.
"He argues this would give him a mandate to hold another independence referendum – as happened when the SNP won an overall majority in 2011."
However, given the fragmented polling landscape, the realism of this goal is uncertain.
Electoral System and Seat Projections
The electoral system for the Scottish Parliament is designed to produce a proportional outcome based on each party's share of the vote. However, over half the seats (73 out of 129) are elected via first-past-the-post.
Under first-past-the-post, the critical factor is winning more votes than opponents in each constituency, rather than total vote share.
If a party wins 65 of the 73 constituency seats, it will secure an overall majority regardless of the allocation of the 56 regional list seats.
With a significant national lead and evenly distributed support across Scotland, the SNP is expected to win most constituency seats.
Nonetheless, current national polling suggests the SNP is more likely to win around 60 seats, short of the 65 needed for a majority.
MRP Polls and Seat Estimates
Some pollsters are conducting Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) polls, which are larger than conventional polls and analyze data to estimate outcomes in individual seats.
Two such MRP exercises—from YouGov and Electoral Calculus—project the SNP could win as many as 67 seats.
Both suggest the SNP may benefit from a significant decline in Conservative support in the five constituency seats in the Borders and the North East that the party currently defends, potentially making all these seats attainable for the SNP.
Conversely, another MRP poll by More in Common estimates the SNP could win as few as 56 seats.
This analysis suggests the SNP might lose seats to the Liberal Democrats, particularly in the Highlands, while the Greens could challenge in Edinburgh and Glasgow.
It also indicates close contests in most constituencies, contributing to overall uncertainty in the election result.
Voter Volatility and Uncertainty
Support for all parties appears potentially fragile. Ipsos reports that 42% of respondents who declare a voting intention also indicate they might change their mind.
By comparison, at the same stage in 2021, only 25% of voters expressed the possibility of changing their vote.
Consequently, none of the parties can be certain about the election outcome on 7 May.
About the Author
John Curtice is Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University and Senior Fellow at the National Centre for Social Research and The UK in a Changing Europe.
