1. What elections are being held and where?
On 7 May, three of the UK’s four nations will hold elections that carry significant implications, not only for the composition of governing bodies but also for the broader political trajectory of the country.
In Scotland, voters will elect 129 members of the Scottish Parliament through a mixed electoral system combining first-past-the-post and proportional representation. In Wales, the electorate will choose 96 members for an expanded Senedd.
In England, elections will be held for members of over 130 councils of various types, including metropolitan, unitary, county, district councils, and 32 London boroughs. Additionally, six mayoral elections will take place. Some councils will be electing all councillors, while others will elect a third of their members.
2. So who’s going to win?
With the elections still six weeks away and the complexities of different electoral systems and polling variability, the outcome remains uncertain. However, several broad themes have emerged.
In Scotland, the contest has been framed as a battle between the Scottish National Party (SNP) and Reform UK, with recent polls indicating fluctuating support levels. In Wales, polling data shows varied standings among parties.
In England, the diversity of councils results in a mixed picture. Labour is expected to perform strongly in the north of England, while the Green Party could secure a substantial number of councillors, particularly in urban areas.
3. What of the traditional big two?
For both Labour and the Conservatives, the elections represent an opportunity to limit potential losses. Labour faces the prospect of losing ground in Scotland for the first time since devolution, although the decline may be less severe than anticipated. Across English councils, Labour under Keir Starmer could experience significant seat losses to both Reform UK and the Greens.
The Conservatives, led by Kemi Badenoch, are likely to face a challenging election. In addition to further council losses, the party is defending seats in Scotland and Wales that were last won during the Boris Johnson “vaccine bounce” of spring 2021. Forecasts suggest Conservative support could more than halve in both nations.
4. What could the political repercussions be?
Significant losses for Labour could embolden internal critics of Keir Starmer to challenge his leadership as prime minister. Many Labour MPs consider this possibility likely, especially if the UK continues to grapple with the effects of ongoing economic and social challenges.
While Badenoch is generally regarded as secure, with her MPs acknowledging improvements in her performance, the May elections are expected to highlight the Conservatives’ ongoing struggles in the polls. The rise of Reform UK may prompt strategic reconsiderations within the party.
The elections could also have constitutional implications, potentially accelerating discussions on the future of the United Kingdom. Northern Ireland may follow suit if Sinn Féin wins the Northern Ireland Assembly elections in 2027, marking a historic first and challenging the UK’s status as a union of four nations.
5. What else is worth keeping an eye on?
An important aspect to monitor is whether the rise of Reform UK influences tactical voting behavior. In particular, it will be notable if voters strongly opposed to Nigel Farage’s party coordinate to support candidates best positioned to defeat them. Tactical voting is typically less prevalent in council elections due to lower stakes, but parties will be attentive to any shifts.
The performance of the Green Party will also be significant, especially if they make gains beyond urban centers. Observers will consider whether their success comes at the expense of Labour or if both parties can increase their representation simultaneously.
6. And which results will be worth staying up for?
Even for election enthusiasts, staying up all night to follow results may not be necessary. Most vote counts will occur on Friday, with some extending into Saturday. Early results on Thursday night will be limited, and caution is advised when interpreting initial trends immediately after polls close. Ultimately, comprehensive analysis will require time.
