Introduction
Local elections are frequently viewed as a referendum on the incumbent government, with many past administrations suffering significant losses but managing to recover by the subsequent general election. Senior political figures often cite midterm results from years such as 1999, 2003, and 2012 to support this perspective. As one official noted,
“As we get closer to the general election, it will be less about people’s view of the parties generally and more about the actual choice in front of them.”
However, the local and devolved elections scheduled for May 2024 appear to be distinctively negative contests, partly because Nigel Farage now generates as much animosity nationwide as Keir Starmer.
Voter Sentiment and Tactical Voting
Some voters are determined to reprimand the government, while others are equally intent on preventing certain parties from gaining power. Fewer voters seem inclined to cast ballots based on positive support for any party. Whether this manifests as an “anyone but Labour” or “anyone but Reform” sentiment, the prevailing pattern suggests these elections will largely be defined by opposition rather than endorsement.
Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, observed the unusual prevalence of tactical voting discussions among the public:
“It’s rare to hear so much discussion about tactical voting among the public. But across the country more and more people are describing their vote in terms of who they want to stop rather than who they want to win.”
He further explained,
“At the Gorton [and Denton] byelection we heard repeatedly from progressive voters that they just wanted to know who was the best ‘stop Reform’ choice, and that is something we now hear from progressives right across the UK.
At the same time in many English councils that will be voting in local elections, we are repeatedly hearing from voters who just want to back the ‘punish Labour’ option, be that Greens and Gaza independents on their left or Reform on their right.
In counties like Essex, voters on the right still want to punish the , in what used to be a traditional stronghold, for the legacy of the last government and failures to control migration, and so are backing Reform.”
Polling Trends and Party Popularity
As Reform’s polling numbers have plateaued, the proportion of people expressing opposition to Farage’s party has increased. Currently, 38% of Britons say they would vote against Reform, marking a nine-point rise since November 2023.
This shift marks the first instance in More in Common’s polling where Reform, rather than Labour, is the most unpopular party. Labour’s unpopularity stands at 34%, down four points; the Conservatives and Greens are each at 7%, with the Conservatives down one point and the Greens up four points. The Liberal Democrats remain steady at 3%.
Reform acknowledges that many centrist and left-leaning voters may vote tactically against it but argues this indicates that the mainstream parties are indistinguishable and that Reform offers a genuine alternative.
Expert Analysis on Tactical Voting and Electoral Impact
Professor Tony Travers, a local government expert at the London School of Economics, suggested the “anyone but” sentiment does not apply uniformly to Reform, as the appetite for tactical voting varies across the political spectrum. For example, in inner cities, Labour faces greater vulnerability to parties like the Greens or the Workers Party of Britain. Conversely, this dynamic presents an opportunity for Farage to achieve significant gains where Reform’s support is already concentrated.
The two main parties, Labour and the Conservatives, have traditionally dominated the electoral system, securing the majority of votes. However, in the 2024 general election, these parties combined accounted for only 57% of votes, the lowest on record, reflecting increasing fragmentation.
Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, interprets voter behavior as a clear message to the established parties:
“They sent it in last year’s local elections. They sent it in Gorton and Denton. And they’re going to be sending it in the devolved elections coming up as well. ‘We really don’t like you. We’re not going to vote for you.’”
He added,
“The question that we’ve got to hash out is: where is this all leading when we come to a general election? And the honest answer is, we don’t know.”
Implications for May Elections and Labour’s Prospects
Given the public’s mood toward the “pro-system” parties, the elections on 7 May, which will elect over 5,000 councillors and six mayors in England, alongside the Scottish and Welsh elections, introduce a period of considerable uncertainty.
Labour anticipates substantial losses to Reform and the Greens across England, including in its former strongholds in the North East, West Yorkshire, and Greater Manchester. In London, where Labour controls 21 of 32 councils, party insiders fear significant setbacks.
In Wales, where Labour has maintained dominance for over a century, the party faces pressure from both left and right. Reform is challenging in traditional working-class communities, while Plaid Cymru is attracting the progressive vote.
Both insurgent parties in Wales are likely to frame the election as a contest between themselves, potentially attracting voters who might not typically support Plaid Cymru and positioning it to become the largest party in the Senedd.
Similarly, the “anyone but” sentiment is evident in Scotland, where Labour aims to campaign as insurgents by criticizing the SNP’s nearly two decades in power, focusing on issues such as the NHS and education. The SNP, in contrast, prefers to emphasize the broader UK political context.
Tryl noted,
“Scotland has become defined by which government people like least, Westminster or Holyrood.”
The SNP leads the polls significantly, while Scottish Labour’s previously strong support has diminished following repeated Westminster missteps. Nevertheless, some within Labour believe the party retains an advantage due to its ground campaign and leader Anas Sarwar’s appeal.
A senior Labour figure commented,
“The focus elsewhere in the UK is on Reform and whether they’ll win, but Scotland’s had multiparty politics for a long time and it’s a different story here.”
Potential Constitutional Implications
An important aspect of the May elections is that if nationalist parties win in Scotland and Wales, three of the four UK nations could be committed to independence, potentially triggering a constitutional crisis for Westminster.
At the political cabinet meeting held last Tuesday, Scotland Secretary Douglas Alexander and Treasury Minister Torsten Bell, who represents a Welsh constituency, presented their parties’ prospects. One attendee remarked,
“Things are not as bad as you might think.”
However, other ministers expressed pessimism:
“We’re going to get a trouncing. Whatever spin we put on it, May is going to be a nightmare for us. Not just in Scotland and Wales, but across England too.”
Labour’s Strategy and Leadership Concerns
Regardless of the extent of Labour’s losses, party officials hope to identify enough positive outcomes to frame the results as typical midterm voter frustration.
Travers explained,
“It’s an expectations game for the Labour leadership. It’s like one of those Private Eye front pages comparing the incumbent party to the Titanic. Labour will try to spin it as being a disappointing night for the iceberg.”
Starmer’s unpopularity motivates some voters to attempt to destabilize his leadership through the polls. Anxious Labour MPs are closely monitoring the situation.
If they conclude that Starmer is unlikely to reverse the prevailing “anyone but” sentiment before the next general election, May could prove catastrophic not only for the Labour party but also for his leadership.
