US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding Reopens Strait of Hormuz
The US-Iran memorandum of understanding announced on Wednesday effectively reopens the Strait of Hormuz and establishes a framework to negotiate a comprehensive final agreement on multiple outstanding issues.
President Donald Trump characterized the agreement as a significant victory for the United States during an extended press conference at the G7 summit in France.
Details Reveal Lengthy Negotiation Ahead
However, new information disclosed by US officials during a call with reporters indicates that both nations face a substantial path toward achieving a comprehensive peace agreement that fulfills Trump's principal objective of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
Trump has asserted that the deal guarantees Iran will never acquire, develop, or produce a nuclear weapon. Yet, the agreement's text, which officials read aloud during the call, does not fully substantiate this claim.
Ceasefire Extension Initiates 60-Day Negotiation Period
Instead, the extension of the ceasefire initiates a high-stakes 60-day period during which the two adversaries must endeavor to finalize a lasting nuclear accord. The original Iran nuclear deal, negotiated under the Obama administration, required 20 months to complete in 2015. Whether the Trump administration can accomplish this within two months remains uncertain.
Commitment to Downblending Uranium Under IAEA Supervision
Currently, the agreement commits Iran solely to "downblending" its stockpile of highly enriched uranium under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). A senior US official described this as a "significant concession" by Iran.
However, the technical specifics regarding the process and timeline for downblending remain to be determined during the 60-day negotiation window following the scheduled signing on Friday.
Financial Provisions and Reconstruction Funding
President Trump has maintained that the US will not provide any funds to Iran, a critical point for him given his criticism of the Obama administration's $1.7 billion payment to Iran in 2016.
Seeking to shape his legacy, Trump has emphasized that his Iran deal surpasses that of former President Barack Obama, particularly highlighting the financial aspect as evidence of a firmer stance against Tehran.
Nevertheless, the agreement's text states that the US will collaborate "with regional partners to develop a definitive mutually agreed plan with at least USD $300 billion" allocated for Iran's reconstruction.
A senior US official clarified that the deal does not obligate the US to disburse any funds to Iran. Yet, the language in the agreement is ambiguous and appears to permit the possibility of US payments to Iran as part of a negotiated resolution to the conflict.
This provision could present a significant political challenge for Trump and Vice-President JD Vance, who campaigned on a platform opposing new "forever wars." The anti-interventionist MAGA base might oppose the arrangement, even if any eventual payments to Iran do not originate directly from the US.
Limited Attention to Proxy Groups and Missile Program
Other critical issues receive minimal attention in the brief, page-and-a-half agreement.
At the onset of the conflict, Trump identified preventing Iran from funding proxy groups in the region, such as Hezbollah, as a top priority. This concern was shared by Israel, which participated alongside the US in initiating the war and has engaged in a separate conflict with the Iranian-backed militia group in Lebanon.
The cessation of hostilities under the current agreement extends to Hezbollah. However, the group is scarcely mentioned elsewhere in the deal, and it remains unclear whether Iran will be pressured to cease support for Hezbollah and other regional proxies in subsequent negotiations.
The text released on Wednesday also omits detailed discussion of Iran's missile program, another issue highlighted by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a priority at the war's outset.
Uncertain Prospects for Final Agreement
The likelihood that the Geneva agreement will culminate in a final accord remains uncertain. The text establishes a 60-day deadline for negotiations but allows for extensions if necessary, suggesting that neither side is highly optimistic about reaching a comprehensive agreement within the timeframe.
During his G7 press conference, Trump expressed a noncommittal stance regarding the prospects for lasting peace with Iran.
If it doesn't get done in 60 days, it's all right. We go back to bombing.
