One of Ipswich, Millwall, Southampton or Middlesbrough will be a Premier League team by 2 May
As Coventry City prepare to celebrate their promotion back to the Premier League after 25 years, the contest for the second automatic promotion spot remains highly competitive and uncertain.
Coventry require just a point at Blackburn on Friday evening to secure their return to the top flight.
However, the fight for the remaining automatic promotion place is expected to be decided in the final moments of the season.
Ipswich Town currently hold a two-point lead with two games in hand, positioning them favorably. Yet their recent 2-0 defeat at Portsmouth serves as a reminder of the Championship’s unpredictability.
Millwall, positioned third, have renewed their challenge, while Southampton have surged into fourth place following a six-game winning streak.
Even Middlesbrough, despite a recent slump with three draws and three losses placing them fifth—their lowest standing this season—remain in contention for automatic promotion on 2 May.
With Ipswich scheduled to face Middlesbrough and Southampton in two of their final four fixtures, predicting which team will claim second place has become exceedingly difficult.
Ipswich are aiming for a fourth promotion to the Premier League
Flattering to deceive
Ipswich entered the season as pre-season favourites for promotion, so their current second-place position with five games remaining aligns with expectations.
Despite this standing, their campaign has lacked the excitement seen during their promotion push under Kieran McKenna two years prior.
The squad, bolstered in January by the additions of Anis Mehmeti and Dan Neil, is strong, yet there remains a sense of unfulfilled potential.
Their longest winning streak was four consecutive victories early in the year, but inconsistent performances have frequently interrupted momentum.
"The result at Portsmouth summed up the season," said Jobi McAnuff on the 72+ EFL podcast. "When you look at the players at their disposal it's ridiculous, but I'm not seeing what I should be given the quality within the squad."
To guarantee automatic promotion, Ipswich need to secure 10 points from their remaining five matches. Former captain Mick Mills believes this target is achievable despite recent setbacks.
"When you look at the fixtures, we can pick up three wins. Ideally one of them would be Middlesbrough (on Sunday) because that would completely nail Middlesbrough, their chance to finish second would be pretty much gone," Mills told BBC Radio Suffolk.
"The only concern we have is this group of players, they can be so up and down. Why are they like it? Leif Davis coming back at the weekend is going to help, he's a natural left-back and we do miss the running ability he's got and the ability he's got on the ball.
"We've got the players to do it, it's just making sure we pick the right ones and those players respond in the right way and perform on the day."
Laidback Lions waiting to pounce
Millwall’s presence in the automatic promotion conversation in mid-April is a testament to their strong season performance.
Few outside their home ground, The Den, anticipated this, but manager Alex Neil and his experienced squad have proven their capability.
Following an impressive draw at Ipswich and a comeback victory at Middlesbrough, Millwall briefly held second place after the Good Friday fixtures. However, one point from their last two games has seen them slip to third.
Midfielder Massimo Luongo highlights the importance of a strong team spirit in their success.
"Everyone underestimates what goes on in the Millwall changing room," the Australia international told the 72+.
"The loss to Norwich - you saw at the end of the game, a few boys were down holding their heads, which I don't personally like, and then the reaction of the draw with West Brom.
"We are so laid-back, we don't care. We won't go too high, we won't go too low."
Millwall’s upcoming fixtures include a London derby against Queens Park Rangers, followed by away matches at Stoke City and relegation-threatened Leicester City, concluding with a home game against Oxford United.
The Lions will secure a play-off spot with four points, but Neil emphasizes that the team’s ambitions extend beyond that.
"At the start of the season, if I said to anyone that we would get into the play-offs, everybody would be absolutely buzzing because that's been an aim and a catalyst that we've wanted to try and achieve for the club for such a long period of time," Neil told BBC Radio London.
"Does it mean that we're satisfied with that? Absolutely not. And I think this is where we need to get a bit of perspective on things.
"Do we want to try to go up automatically? Of course we do. Who wouldn't? But would we be disappointed with the play-offs? Absolutely 100% not."
Saints on the rise
On 17 January, Southampton were 15th in the table, winless in seven matches, and four points behind Leicester City. Relegation was only six points below them, and the play-offs were a distant 10 points away, leading to doubts about head coach Tonda Eckert’s leadership.
Three months later, Southampton have not lost a match, compiling 12 wins and three draws, which has propelled them up the standings. They also have an FA Cup semi-final against Manchester City at Wembley scheduled for Saturday, 25 April.
Southampton are currently the in-form team, and with a home match against Ipswich remaining, the focus has shifted from whether they will reach the play-offs to whether they can secure the second automatic promotion spot.
"If Southampton are to go and get second, this would be one of the greatest stories ever in the EFL," said McAnuff.
"They were down and out. Watching them as a group, they were gone.
"Now they're still an outsider to get in the top two because of where they've come from, so they can attack every single game with freedom. That makes them dangerous."
Confidence is high at St Mary's after their rise in the league and victories over Premier League teams Fulham and Arsenal in the cup.
Head coach Eckert has been able to rotate his squad in recent matches while maintaining a strong performance level.
"It sounds boring because I keep repeating myself but we need to keep our heads down and keep working. It's the only way," said the German.
"This squad is in a moment and a place where you can put on whoever you want to put on and they're ready and well able to perform. That's a big plus for us at this part of the season.
"That's all it comes down to at this stage of the season. When you step on the grass you need to be ready to perform."
Wrong form at wrong time
Middlesbrough reached the top of the table on 9 February after a win at Sheffield United, marking their sixth consecutive victory under Kim Hellberg.
At that point, they appeared unstoppable, playing with freedom and confidence.
However, their form has since deteriorated, with only two wins in their last 11 games and no victories in their last six matches.
Despite this downturn, their upcoming match at Portman Road against Ipswich represents an opportunity to revive their promotion challenge.
"Middlesbrough have hit an absolute brick wall," said McAnuff. "It's not because they've not got good footballers or dominate games, but they're not able to get over the line."
Head coach Hellberg remains confident in his squad's capabilities.
"We're good enough to win every game," he told BBC Radio Tees. "That's the way we play and that's been clear.
"For us, I'm looking at that as a good possibility to do. We know that this squad and the way we've worked, we're good enough to win against any team."
What does Opta say?
Predicting outcomes in the Championship is notoriously difficult due to frequent unexpected results.
However, Opta’s projections provide insight into the probabilities for each team.
They forecast Ipswich to finish second with 83 points and a 71.92% chance of achieving this. Millwall is predicted to finish third with 80 points (11.4%), followed by Southampton (79 points, 10.04%) and Middlesbrough (78 points, 6.5%).
This represents a significant decline for Middlesbrough, who have spent only six of the 42 matchdays outside the top two this season.
Opta also predicts Hull City will complete the play-off lineup, maintaining their current sixth position.
Given the unpredictable nature of this Championship season, surprises are likely in the final two weeks.
will provide live local radio coverage and live text commentaries for all key Championship matches during the run-in, beginning with Friday's Blackburn Rovers versus Coventry City match at 20:00 BST.
