From Wild Card to Underdog: The Championship Play-Off Battle
By 23 May, one of Alex Neil, Tonda Eckert, Kim Hellberg, or Sergej Jakirovic will be managing a Premier League club.
The Championship play-offs have narrowed the promotion race to four clubs, with only one guaranteed to ascend to the Premier League. The other three will face the disappointment of narrowly missing out.
With Coventry City and Ipswich Town already promoted through the regular season, the final promotion spot will be decided through the play-offs.
Millwall, Southampton, Middlesbrough, and Hull City remain contenders. analyses which team is best positioned to reach the top flight.
Millwall – The Wild Card
Millwall have reached the final in their past four play-off campaigns, all in League One, but have been eliminated in the semi-finals in all three of their second-tier play-off appearances.
Position: Third, 83 points (Goal Difference +15)
Top scorer: Femi Azeez with 11 goals.
Key statistic: 41% of Millwall's Championship goals this season originated from set-pieces (26 out of 64, excluding penalties). Only Sheffield Wednesday (48%) and Oxford United (44%) had higher proportions.
Play-off record: Eight campaigns, two promotions (both in League One, 2010 and 2017).
Last second-tier play-offs: 2001-02 season, lost 2-1 on aggregate to Birmingham City in the semi-final.
Record versus other play-off teams this season: Played 6, Won 3, Drawn 1, Lost 2.
Few expected Millwall to reach the play-offs, let alone contend for automatic promotion until the final day, finishing just one point behind second-placed Ipswich.
Manager Alex Neil, who has previously secured promotion via play-offs twice, has guided a Lions side boasting the best away record in the division and the most clean sheets (18).
The club’s last top-flight appearance was in 1990, and their last second-tier play-off participation was 24 years ago.
"We're in the play-offs with an unbelievable season but there's still a lot to play for," Neil told BBC Radio London.
"I speak to the players regularly about what we've managed to do and how we've managed to do it, but we're not satisfied, we're never satisfied.
"You want to be the team that gets into the final, you want to be the team to be promoted.
"For this group, what we've done, how we've done it, I think we deserve to have something for our efforts come the end of it, not just a pat on the back and a well done. We're hoping there is still a fairy-tale ending for us."
Millwall's Defensive Strength
Millwall's away form has been exceptional this season, making them a tough opponent in the semi-finals. Their defensive organization and solidity suit the two-legged format well.
However, a final against Southampton or Middlesbrough, who play expansive football and aim to control possession, would present a different challenge.
Southampton – The Favourite
Southampton are currently on their longest league unbeaten run since a 22-game streak between September 2023 and February 2024 in the Championship.
Position: Fourth, 80 points (Goal Difference +26)
Top scorer: Finn Azaz with 11 goals.
Key statistic: Since Tonda Eckert's appointment on 5 November, Southampton have earned more points (68) and scored more goals (69) than any other Championship side.
Play-off record: Two campaigns, one promotion (2024).
Last second-tier play-offs: 2023-24 season, won 1-0 in the final against Leeds United.
Record versus other play-off teams this season: Played 6, Won 0, Drawn 2, Lost 4.
Southampton's resurgence is notable, having been 15th and 10 points outside the top six in mid-January. A 19-match unbeaten run with 14 wins propelled them into the play-offs.
Alongside their league form, Southampton reached the FA Cup semi-final with victories over Fulham and Arsenal.
"I don't care [about what Southampton have already achieved]," Eckert told BBC Radio Solent.
"It doesn't make a difference. No-one cares in the end if you make it all the way and you don't make the last step.
"We need to make the last step now and we are ready to do that."
Southampton’s Play-Off Prospects
Southampton enter the play-offs with strong confidence, being the second highest scorers overall and having accumulated the most points since Eckert’s arrival.
They will face a different dynamic compared to the regular season, as they failed to beat any of the other three play-off contenders earlier.
"Saints will be 'full strength' for play-offs," Eckert confirmed.
Middlesbrough – The Sleeping Giant
Middlesbrough's last 11 goals in the regular season were scored by Tommy Conway (5), Morgan Whittaker (3), and David Strelec (3).
Position: Fifth, 80 points (Goal Difference +25)
Top scorer: Morgan Whittaker with 14 goals.
Key statistic: Middlesbrough were promoted to the top flight via the play-offs in 1987-88, defeating Chelsea over two legs. Since then, they have participated in four second-tier play-offs without success, reaching the final once in 2014-15.
Play-off record: Five campaigns, one promotion (1988).
Last second-tier play-offs: 2022-23, lost 1-0 on aggregate to Coventry City in the semi-final.
Middlesbrough supporters consider their club Premier League-worthy. After spending 35 of 39 matchweeks in the top two this season, a seven-game winless streak cost them automatic promotion.
Kim Hellberg, in his first English managerial role after Rob Edwards left for Wolves in November, guided the team to a top-six finish.
The club spent 11 consecutive seasons in the Premier League between 1998 and 2009 but has only had one top-flight season in the last 17 years.
"I think it will be two great games of football," Hellberg told BBC Radio Tees about the semi-final against Southampton.
"Two attacking-minded teams, two teams that want to press, two teams that want to play.
"I think we've improved the way we've played football all the time, I think we're creating loads of opportunities. We're playing football I'm proud of."
Middlesbrough’s Challenge
Middlesbrough aim to complete promotion after losing their place in the automatic spots late in the season. Only Coventry spent more time in the top two.
The absence of midfielder Hayden Hackney remains a concern, as the team performs better with him. However, improved scoring from Conway, Strelec, and Whittaker offers optimism.
Facing Southampton, the team many hoped to avoid, Boro have demonstrated they are not intimidated by any opponent.
Hull City – The Underdog
Oli McBurnie is experiencing the most prolific season of his career at age 29.
Position: Sixth, 73 points (Goal Difference +4)
Top scorer: Oli McBurnie with 17 goals.
Key statistic: Hull City significantly overperformed their expected goals (xG) this season, netting 70 goals from an xG of 59.6. Only Wrexham and Derby County exceeded their xG by a larger margin.
Play-off record: Three campaigns, two promotions (2008 and 2016).
Last second-tier play-offs: 2015-16, won 1-0 in the final against Sheffield Wednesday.
Record versus other play-off teams this season: Played 6, Won 4, Drawn 0, Lost 2.
Hull City’s turnaround has been remarkable. After narrowly avoiding relegation to League One last season, they now have a chance at Premier League promotion.
Manager Sergej Jakirovic embraces the challenge of becoming only the seventh team in 37 years to be promoted after finishing sixth, a feat last achieved by Blackpool in 2009-10.
"In my life nothing is easy," Jakirovic told BBC Radio Humberside.
"Since I'm a coach, like I said in my first press conference, I'm out of my comfort zone.
"I don't like 'comfort zone' because nothing comes from comfort zone. You have to chase your dreams, your ambitions and then you'll be successful."
Hull City’s Experienced Squad
Hull’s qualification for the play-offs defied expectations, especially given their difficult final-day match against Norwich City.
The squad includes experienced players with extensive Championship appearances, known as serial winners.
"Not luck Hull are in the play-offs," McBurnie stated.
Championship Play-Off Schedule
Southampton and Hull City have each won three times at Wembley, more than Millwall’s two and Middlesbrough’s zero.
- Hull City vs Millwall, MKM Stadium - Friday, 8 May (20:00 BST)
- Middlesbrough vs Southampton, Riverside Stadium - Saturday, 9 May (12:30 BST)
- Millwall vs Hull City, The Den - Monday, 11 May (20:00 BST)
- Southampton vs Middlesbrough, St Mary's Stadium - Tuesday, 12 May (20:00 BST)
- Play-off Final, Wembley Stadium - Saturday, 23 May (kick-off time TBC)
Expert Analysis: 'Saints Have Momentum and the Edge'
Jobi McAnuff, former Reading, Crystal Palace, and Watford winger, who lost the 2011 Championship play-off final with Reading, shared his insights.
"Momentum, wherever you finish – whether it is third, fourth, fifth or sixth – is really important. You look at Millwall or Saints this year and they are definitely the two coming into it with that.
"Southampton have been fantastic under Tonda Eckert – a 19-game unbeaten run, great FA Cup run as well. So I just have them to beat Middlesbrough over two really good legs.
"I cannot see past Millwall against Hull – I think they have a little bit too much in their locker, really difficult to beat and now with that added quality.
"In terms of the final, I am going to give the edge to Southampton because of how open and expansive they can make the pitch.
"It will be very difficult to argue against Millwall given how well they have done but in terms of the dynamic of the game, I would just nudge towards Southampton."
You can listen to more from McAnuff on the play-off battle on the More Than The Score podcast on .
