Manchester City Narrowly Secure Win, Keeping Title Hopes Alive
Manchester City secured a victory by the narrowest of margins on Sunday, setting up a tense conclusion to the Premier League season that will ultimately be decided by nerves and fine details.
Arsenal delivered what was arguably their best performance in two months, yet this offered little consolation. The result leaves Pep Guardiola's team in control of the title race; a win against Burnley at Turf Moor on Wednesday will see City top the Premier League on goal difference. Both teams will then have five matches remaining.
Fine Margins Decide Outcome
The match was determined by incredibly fine margins. What prevented Eberechi Eze's whipped shot from just outside the box from finding the net? Was it an inch, or even half an inch? Arsenal’s Gabriel also struck the woodwork, while Kai Havertz headed a promising chance just over the crossbar during injury time. This defeat handed City the advantage in the title race but could easily have been a hard-fought draw that would have preserved Arsenal's lead and, perhaps more importantly, boosted their morale.
However, City also hit the woodwork and created 15 chances compared to Arsenal's nine. Arsenal’s goal was notably unusual in nature. Complaining about fortune benefits neither side.
Title Race Far From Decided
No one should assume the title race is over. Although City have appeared to raise their level since the League Cup final, they are not the unstoppable force they once were. Following the Burnley match, City face Everton away, Brentford at home, Bournemouth away, Aston Villa at home, and a yet-to-be-scheduled home game against Crystal Palace. This is a team that drew with Nottingham Forest and West Ham last month and suffered a heavy defeat to Real Madrid. There is no guarantee they will win all six remaining games.
Arsenal’s remaining fixtures include Newcastle and Fulham at home, West Ham away, Burnley at home, and Crystal Palace away. It is entirely plausible that Arsenal could win all these matches. Additionally, they will benefit from having Gabriel available after he avoided a red card for flicking his head into Erling Haaland’s face—a decision that was difficult to understand. Haaland, essentially, bore the consequence for merely looking at Gabriel with an expression of bemusement; a different player might have fallen, making it difficult for Gabriel to avoid dismissal.
"Haaland, effectively, paid the price for standing looking at him with an air of magnificent bemusement; a different player would have collapsed and then it’s hard to see how Gabriel could have avoided dismissal."
This incident disadvantaged City both in the short term during the game and in the sense that Gabriel will not serve a three-match ban. Furthermore, if Rodri’s groin injury is serious, City may be without him for some or all of the remaining matches.
Arsenal’s Despondency and Psychological Challenges
However, to say Arsenal should not feel despondent misses the point. They have become despondent and have started to doubt themselves. Their performance on Sunday was not poor; there was no indication they bottled the game. Aside from an unusual early error where David Raya was nearly caught in possession by Haaland, there was no clear sign of anxiety or nerves, which have hampered them in recent weeks. They played as one would expect an away side at City to play.
The issue is that having won only one of their previous five games (only one in the league), this match was one Arsenal could not afford to lose. The psychological momentum now lies with City. This game also highlighted another clear problem: Arsenal’s lack of an elite centre-forward. Viktor Gyökeres does not hold up the ball well and, despite scoring goals in the Championship for Coventry and in the Portuguese League for Sporting, is not an exceptionally sharp goalscorer. At least one high-level club assessed him at Sporting and concluded he is not quite adept at getting shots away in tight spaces.
Havertz likely played the hold-up role better on Sunday than Gyökeres could have, but he is not a striker. All players miss chances, but how often would Haaland have missed that late header? More pertinently, how often would a peak Alexander Isak have done so? The season might have looked very different had Arsenal pursued the Sweden international early in the summer instead of signing Gyökeres and Noni Madueke.
Looking Ahead: Summer Plans and Remaining Matches
That is an issue to address in the summer. For now, Mikel Arteta and Arsenal must recover, leave behind the gloom of the past month, and aim to win their remaining five league games to maintain pressure on City. Their chance of securing the league title has not entirely vanished, and they still have a Champions League semi-final to contest. Rebuilding momentum after losing it is extremely challenging, but this title race has already seen many twists. There is no reason to expect there will not be another.
This article is an extract from Soccer with Jonathan Wilson, a weekly analysis from US covering football in Europe and beyond. Readers with questions for Jonathan can email soccerwithjw@the.com, and selected queries will be answered in future editions.
