US Military Surveillance Flights Near Cuba
The US military has been publicly broadcasting the locations of its surveillance flights near Cuba on plane-tracking websites, reflecting Washington's continued pressure on the island's communist government.
UK drone expert Dr Steve Wright suggested that leaving flight transponders on "is likely deliberate," with the US aiming to send
a clear message it has eyes in the sky to maintain the squeeze.
BBC Verify's analysis of data from the flight-tracking website Flightradar24 reveals that since 11 May, at least five US Navy P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft and three MQ-4C Triton surveillance drones have operated in the Caribbean near Cuba. Some flights have approached as close as 50 miles (80 km) from the island.
Flight-tracking data does not provide a complete overview of US activity near Cuba, as military aircraft do not always broadcast their positions continuously but only during parts of their flights.
This deployment coincides with a significant rise in US-Cuba tensions in recent months, following Washington's imposition of an effective oil blockade on Cuba.
News outlet Axios reported that Havana has acquired drones capable of attacking the US mainland. In response, Cuba's foreign minister stated the country
neither threatens nor desires warand accused Washington of constructing a
fraudulent caseto justify military intervention.
Following these accusations, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered a
new relationshipwith the Cuban people on Wednesday.
Speaking in Spanish on the anniversary of Cuba's independence from the US, Rubio addressed the island's population directly, attributing the
unimaginable hardshipsfaced by Cubans to their communist leadership rather than the US fuel blockade.
Experts consulted by BBC Verify indicated that the public nature of these surveillance flights suggests the US aims to enforce the blockade, exert pressure on the Cuban government, and deter allies such as Venezuela from attempting to deliver energy shipments to the island.
The resulting fuel crisis has caused widespread power blackouts and sparked protests across Cuba. President Donald Trump has also increased pressure on Cuba to
make a dealand warned the communist regime that the US might intervene similarly to its actions in Venezuela earlier this year when it captured President Nicolás Maduro.
What the Flight-Tracking Data Reveals
BBC Verify tracked multiple flights by US Navy P-8 Poseidon surveillance jets, including one on 11 May when the aircraft approached within 50 miles (80 km) of southern Cuba, according to Flightradar24 data. The P-8 continued operations into the following day, flying north of Cuba's capital Havana before returning to its base in Jacksonville, Florida.
On 15 May, two US MQ-4C Triton surveillance drones operated off southern Cuba's coast, following routes similar to those previously flown by Poseidon aircraft.
Mark Cancian, retired US Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told BBC Verify that the repeated flight paths of these surveillance aircraft
indicate an intention to spot ship arrivals from the south, primarily, and secondarily from the north.
He added,
None of the flights are over land, so this is not some preparation for invasion. Cancian also expressed doubt that these flights are routine, given the limited number of P-8s and MQ-4C Tritons available to the US.
BBC Verify also reviewed US military aircraft activity near Cuba between 1 and 7 February, noting only one P-8 flight near Cuba and no MQ-4C Triton activity. However, a US Air Force RC-135V Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft conducted two passes over the island during that period.
Drone expert Steve Wright told BBC Verify that the drone surveillance flights
are most likely part of a US agenda to deter attempts by Venezuela to breach the oil blockade and ship fuel into Cuba.
Analysts from defence intelligence firm Janes offered a similar assessment, noting a
general increase in US intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance sortiessince February.
Janes added,
The fact that these flights are visible through open-source tracking tools suggests they are intended to deter attempts to break the oil blockade and apply pressure on the Cuban government.
