Former Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, the Wales Office and the Ministry of Defence (MoD) used misleading figures about how much the country would spend on defence, a watchdog has said. Earlier this year, Sir Keir told MPs that ministers were increasing defence spending by £270bn, and the same claim was later repeated by the two departments in June.
The UK Statistics Authority said the figure was wrong because it refers to the proposed overall amount the government plans to spend on defence between 2025 and 2029, not an increase of that amount. The Wales Office deleted a post on X that had included the claim.
A UK government spokesperson said:
We have previously acknowledged this phrasing and took immediate steps to ensure it was not replicated.
Downing Street said it had nothing to add. The authority said the steps taken by the Wales Office and the MoD should reduce the risk of the claim being repeated in future.
Sir Keir resigned from Downing Street in July, when he was succeeded by Andy Burnham.
What did Sir Keir Starmer tell MPs?
In March, Sir Keir told the House of Commons liaison committee:
We have already committed to 2.5% in 2027, and we will hit that. That means that, in this Parliament, we will spend £270bn more on defence than we would otherwise have done.
That figure was then repeated in similar form by an MoD spokesman in June, and by the Wales Office X account, which said on 3 June:
The UK government is increasing defence spending by £270bn over this Parliament to strengthen our national security.
BBC Wales was told that the figure originated in the MoD, rather than the Wales Office, which was led by the then-Welsh secretary Jo Stevens at the time. The Wales Office is a part of the UK government and oversees the system of devolution, while also aiming to be a voice for Wales within Westminster.
Why did the statistics watchdog say the figure was misleading?
In a letter to Tory shadow defence secretary James Cartlidge, UK Statistics Authority interim chair Penny Young said the wording was both incorrect and misleading. She said:
We agree that it is incorrect and misleading to describe the £270bn as an increase in defence spending over the course of this Parliament, or to describe it as an extra £270bn.
Young said:
The £270bn represents the proposed overall spending on defence over the lifetime of the current Parliament, from 2025-26 to 2028-29.
According to the letter, the Wales Office told the authority that the figure used
was a mistake and was amended as soon as it was noticed. Young said the Wales Office had also reviewed its press office lines on the topic and its quality assurance process for press lines to make sure the mistake is not repeated elsewhere.
She added:
The MoD has taken steps to ensure that future communications use precise and consistent language when presenting defence spending figures.
How have ministers and opponents responded?
A UK government spokesperson said the government had already acknowledged the phrasing and acted quickly to stop it being repeated. Downing Street said it had nothing to add. Conservative Shadow Wales Secretary Mims Davies MP said:
At a time of growing global instability, the public deserves honesty and transparency about our defence budget.
She added:
Labour ministers and civil servants in the Wales should be setting out the facts, not presenting figures in a way that risks misleading people.
Key Facts
- Sir Keir Starmer told MPs in March that ministers were increasing defence spending by £270bn.
- The Wales Office and the MoD repeated similar claims in June.
- The UK Statistics Authority said the £270bn figure is the proposed overall defence spending for 2025-26 to 2028-29.
- The Wales Office deleted an X post containing the claim.
- Sir Keir resigned from Downing Street in July and was succeeded by Andy Burnham.
