Watchdog Questions Labour Apprenticeship Claims
First Minister Eluned Morgan's assertion that Labour has surpassed its apprenticeship creation target is "not supported by rigorous" data and may be perceived as "cherry picking," according to the UK Statistics Authority's interim chair, Penny Young.
Critics have challenged the Welsh government for including apprentices who leave their training placements within eight weeks in their totals.
Young emphasized that these apprentices would be excluded under "the well-established 'rigorous' measure."
At the May 2021 Senedd election, Labour pledged to create 125,000 apprenticeships, later revising the target down to 100,000 by 2024.
In February, ministers, including the First Minister, began stating that the Welsh government had exceeded the 100,000 apprenticeship target.
This claim is based on recent "management information" that counts everyone who starts as an apprentice.
Using the more rigorous measure, which excludes those who leave before eight weeks, only 92,800 apprenticeships would have been counted at the time of the First Minister's February claim.
Previously, the government relied on officially verified statistics, which resulted in a lower count of apprentices.
When asked about the shift to management information, the government told BBC Wales that ministers reviewed apprenticeship delivery last autumn "as part of the wider 'more jobs' priority."
Concerns Over Data Transparency and Accuracy
In her letter, Penny Young stated that the First Minister's claim "is not supported by the rigorous measure and appears to create an inconsistency with previous reporting and could be perceived as cherry-picking the data."
"Transparency matters because it enables debate to focus on the important issues. It is crucial to avoid using data that is overly selective or missing appropriate context. Being clear on definitions and the evidence underpinning any such statements can help maintain public confidence in statistics and the organisations that produce them."
Political Reactions
Conservative shadow education secretary Natasha Asghar accused the Welsh government of "misleading" young people.
"Labour fell short of their target by a wide margin, but still claimed success. Now it's clear they have also missed their revised target by 8,000," she said.
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth accused the government of "massaging" apprenticeship figures during First Minister's Questions in the Senedd in February.
Following the publication of Young's letter, Plaid Cymru economy spokesperson Luke Fletcher commented:
"Rather than owning up, Labour have moved the goal posts, but the people of Wales won't be hoodwinked."
Reform Wales leader Dan Thomas also criticized the government, stating that Labour was "trying to take Welsh people for fools with massaged statistics."
First Minister Maintains Position
Despite the concerns raised, the First Minister has reiterated her claim since Young's letter was sent on 13 March, including during her final Senedd question time before the May election on Tuesday.
In response, a Welsh government spokesperson said:
"We are delighted to have created more than 100,000 apprenticeship opportunities during this Senedd term, according to the latest management information from Medr. The data so far also shows over 91% of apprentices remained on their course beyond the first eight weeks. Apprenticeships are an incredibly valuable pathway into employment and play a key role in developing skills, supporting businesses, and strengthening the Welsh economy."
