Statistical Authority Challenges Labour's Apprenticeship Figures
The claim made by First Minister Eluned Morgan that Labour has exceeded its target for creating apprenticeships is not "supported by robust data" and could be seen as "cherry-picking data," according to the UK Statistics Authority.
Criticism has been directed at the Welsh Government for including apprentices who leave training placements within eight weeks in their figures.
These apprentices would have been excluded under the "established robust measure," said Penny Young, interim chair of the UK Statistics Authority.
In the Senedd election last May 2021, Labour pledged 125,000 apprenticeships, later reducing the commitment to 100,000 by 2024.
In February, ministers, including the First Minister, began stating that the Welsh Government had surpassed the 100,000 target.
This assertion is based on recent "management information" that counts everyone who starts an apprenticeship.
Under the more rigorous measure, which excludes those who leave before eight weeks, only 92,800 apprenticeships would have been counted when the First Minister made her claim in February.
Other parties have accused the government of "moving the goalposts" by changing the data it uses.
When asked when it began using management information, the government told BBC Cymru that ministers reviewed apprenticeship provision last autumn "as part of the broader 'more jobs' priority."
Additional Context on Apprenticeships and Skills
New courses in Llanbed aim to "develop skills for a career in farming."
There has been a 48% decrease in construction apprenticeships, described as "skills at risk of disappearing."
Significantly more apprenticeships are now being undertaken in the Welsh language.
UK Statistics Authority's Position
In her letter, Young states that the First Minister's claim "is not supported by the robust measure and appears to create inconsistency with previous reports and could be considered as selective use of data."
"Transparency is important because it enables debate to focus on the important issues.
"It is essential to avoid using data that is too selective or that loses appropriate context.
"Being clear about definitions and the evidence underlying any such statements can help maintain public confidence in statistics and the organisations that produce them."
Political Reactions
Conservative education spokesperson Natasha Asghar accused the Welsh Government of "misleading" young people.
"Labour has significantly missed their target but claimed they had succeeded. It is now clear they have also failed to meet their revised target of 8,000," she said.
The First Minister has reiterated her claim since receiving Young's letter on 13 March, including in her final Senedd questions before the May election on Tuesday.
Welsh Government Response
In a statement, a Welsh Government spokesperson said:
"We are pleased to have created more than 100,000 apprenticeship opportunities during this Senedd term, according to the latest management information from Medr.
"The data so far also shows that over 91% of apprentices have stayed on their course beyond the first eight weeks.
"Apprenticeships are a highly valuable route to employment and play a key role in developing skills, supporting businesses, and strengthening the Welsh economy."
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