MP Catherine West triggers a leadership contest
Sir Keir Starmer's position as prime minister has become increasingly precarious following a series of poor election outcomes, with a growing number of Labour MPs calling for his resignation. Despite this, the prime minister has pledged to continue in office and even suggested the possibility of serving two terms. However, the situation remains fluid and could change rapidly.
One notable development occurred when Labour backbencher Catherine West announced on Saturday her readiness to challenge Sir Keir for the party leadership. West, who has not previously held a high profile within the party, was appointed to a junior ministerial role in the Foreign Office after Labour's 2024 election victory but was dismissed during a government reshuffle last year.
West has stated that she does not personally aspire to lead the party but has grown frustrated with the reluctance of senior cabinet members, who are reportedly preparing their own leadership bids, to initiate a contest following the recent electoral losses.
To initiate a leadership contest, West would need the support of 20% of Labour MPs, equating to 81 members. Currently, over 30 Labour MPs have publicly called for Starmer to step down, though not all may support West’s challenge, as some believe the timing may be premature.
If West is successful in triggering a contest, the responsibility would then fall to prominent Labour figures such as Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner, both of whom have been mentioned as potential candidates for the leadership. Streeting publicly supported Starmer on Friday but did not rule out standing in a leadership contest, while Rayner has yet to comment this weekend.
West falls just short of the numbers needed
Should West secure backing from 60 to 70 MPs, this might be sufficient to encourage a formal challenge from figures like Streeting or Rayner by demonstrating a desire within the Parliamentary Labour Party for change. Such a development could also serve as a warning to Starmer that his tenure is under serious threat.
Cabinet resignations could further influence the situation, as seen in previous Conservative governments where such departures often preceded a prime minister’s resignation.
West gets few backers and strengthens Starmer's position, for now
If West’s attempt to initiate a leadership contest fails to gain significant support, it is likely to reinforce Starmer’s position in the short term. This outcome would enable the prime minister to assert that he retains party backing and may discourage other potential challengers by suggesting that Labour MPs are less inclined to remove him than their private comments imply.
Starmer is persuaded to set a timetable for his exit
Some Labour MPs, including West, view a negotiated timetable for Starmer’s departure as the ideal solution, as it would avoid a disruptive leadership contest that could appear self-indulgent to voters already concerned about the ongoing cost of living crisis.
Questions remain about whether senior cabinet members would confront Starmer and persuade him to step aside for the party’s benefit, and whether they could agree on a consensus candidate to succeed him without a contest. Currently, this seems unlikely, as Starmer would be aware that announcing a departure timetable could render him a "zombie prime minister" and trigger prolonged internal competition and instability.
Starmer convinces Labour MPs he can turn it round
Starmer is preparing to deliver a critical speech on Monday, which many regard as potentially the most important of his career. The speech’s success could determine his political future. Labour MPs are seeking reassurance that he comprehends the party’s challenges and has a clear strategy to regain voter confidence by demonstrating the government’s capacity to improve citizens’ lives.
Last year, despite being under pressure, many MPs regarded Starmer’s Labour conference speech—where he addressed taking on Reform UK—as one of his best as party leader.
West has indicated she will listen to Starmer’s speech before deciding whether to send letters to Labour MPs soliciting leadership nominations.
Following this, on Wednesday, the government will present its legislative agenda for the coming year in the King’s Speech. Starmer will be hoping that the party regains a sense of purpose and momentum, with commitments to policies addressing energy costs and enhancing relations with the EU among the highlights.
In this scenario, Labour MPs might set aside leadership concerns and unite behind Starmer, who led the party to a landslide general election victory less than two years ago.
Andy Burnham engineers a return to Westminster
Another possibility is that Starmer withstands a leadership challenge next week and remains prime minister long enough for Andy Burnham to return to Parliament to contest the leadership.
Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, has openly expressed leadership ambitions but was prevented from seeking a parliamentary seat earlier this year by Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC). His supporters argue that the NEC would be unlikely to block him again given the current party mood, though NEC members have told the BBC they would oppose Burnham’s return.
This scenario depends on Burnham finding a Labour MP willing to resign and trigger a by-election, which has not yet occurred. There is also the risk that Burnham could contest a seat but fail to win it.
Starmer decides he has had enough and stands down
Despite recent statements from the prime minister indicating his intention to continue, this remains the least likely scenario. However, given the volatile political environment, it cannot be entirely ruled out.
for our Politics Essential newsletter to keep up with the inner workings of Westminster and beyond.
