Makerfield at the Heart of a Crucial By-Election
The residents of Makerfield are poised to become central figures in a pivotal political contest as a by-election that could influence the future prime ministership is set to occur in their constituency.
Makerfield, home to approximately 76,000 voters and comprising suburbs of Wigan along with former mining towns and villages, has historically not been a focal point of intense political competition.
Since its establishment in 1983, the seat has been a safe Labour stronghold. However, recent local council elections have seen Reform UK make significant gains, mirroring trends observed in other regions across the country.
Political Dynamics and Leadership Pressure
The rise of Reform UK has contributed to mounting pressure on Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to resign, with numerous Labour MPs urging him to step down and initiate a leadership contest.
Despite these calls, Sir Keir remains resolute, refusing to commit to a timetable for his departure.
Until recently, one of the leading contenders to replace Sir Keir, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, was unable to challenge him directly as he is not a Member of Parliament.
Josh Simons Steps Down, Opening the Door for Burnham
This is where Makerfield becomes significant. The current MP, Josh Simons, has announced his intention to stand down to enable Burnham to contest the seat.
The stakes are exceptionally high for Burnham, who has openly expressed his ambition to become Prime Minister. He is expected to face a formidable challenge from Reform UK, with party leader Nigel Farage pledging to "throw everything" at the by-election campaign.
Burnham is not required to resign as mayor to stand in the by-election and will only relinquish that role if he wins and returns to Parliament.
However, a defeat could seriously damage his political standing and reduce the likelihood of a near-term Labour leadership contest.
Burnham's Political Background and Local Sentiment
Andy Burnham has an extensive history as a Labour MP and minister. Prior to becoming Greater Manchester mayor in 2017, he was elected four times as MP for the Leigh constituency.
Despite his experience, many Makerfield voters, regardless of party allegiance, who spoke with the BBC anticipate a challenging contest for Burnham.
Nursery worker Penelope Nelson, who describes herself and her family as "fans" of Burnham, stated:
"He knows what the people want and he stands for that and I think that's great."
She expressed hope for his victory but acknowledged that "he'll have a fight on his hands."
Retired resident Stan Crook shared his perspective on BBC Radio Manchester:
"This has been a Labour stronghold since I've been voting 45 years ago, but I do think he'll really struggle with this one.
"I think the biggest issue is Labour in general have let the whole country down, not just this [area]. Nobody's got any faith in Keir Starmer... he's not done enough."
"I think Reform will take over. They really jumped in here in a massive way."
He also expressed skepticism regarding Burnham's motives, suggesting the mayor is seeking election to "feather his own cap - hoping to get into Westminster." Crook criticized Burnham's involvement in plans for a Clean Air Zone scheme during lockdown, despite the scheme being dropped in 2022 and replaced with an alternative approved by the government.
Conversely, Alan Entwistle, a carpet cleaner, praised Burnham's mayoral policies:
"He's done brilliantly with the buses and everything else. He knows what he's doing."
Gabriel Parkinson, employed in the charity sector and a Green Party supporter, indicated she would vote for Burnham in this by-election as a preferable choice to Reform UK:
"The choice we have against Reform."
Potential Outcomes and Election Timing
If Burnham wins, a Labour leadership contest is expected to follow, potentially resulting in a new Prime Minister by autumn.
The earliest possible date for the by-election is Thursday, 18 June, coinciding with the week Sir Keir is scheduled to attend the G7 summit in France.
Before Burnham can stand, he must be selected as Labour's candidate by the party's National Executive Committee (NEC). The NEC previously blocked Burnham from contesting the Gorton and Denton by-election in February, but the BBC understands that the Prime Minister will not oppose his candidacy this time.
Local Labour Party approval in Makerfield is also required.
Burnham was re-elected as Greater Manchester mayor in May 2021 and again in May 2024, securing 63.4% of the vote overall and 66% in Wigan.
Expert Analysis and Electoral History
Polling expert Sir John Curtice told Politico that Labour's chances in the Makerfield by-election would be "less than 5%" if Burnham were not the candidate.
He added:
"If [Burnham] manages to win this, he will certainly be demonstrating his ability to win constituencies you would expect most Labour politicians to lose at the moment."
Outgoing MP Josh Simons expressed confidence in Burnham's prospects but acknowledged the contest would be challenging.
At the 2024 general election, Simons secured the seat with 45.2% of the vote and a majority of 5,399. Reform UK finished second with 31.8%, followed by the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Greens.
While constituency boundaries were slightly altered for that election, the seat has remained Labour-held for decades.
This seat ranks 29th on Reform UK's target list, requiring a swing of just over 6.7% for them to win.
Local Election Results and Voter Perspectives
Exact party performance figures for Makerfield during recent local elections are unavailable due to ward boundary discrepancies with the constituency. However, approximate results indicate Reform UK received 50% of the vote share, Labour 27%, Greens 10%, Conservatives 7%, and Liberal Democrats 4%.
Reform UK gained 24 seats on Wigan Council, including two wards in Ashton-in-Makerfield.
Constituent Helen Raymond expressed surprise at Reform UK's strong local election performance but suggested it might reflect dissatisfaction with Labour leadership rather than a complete abandonment of the party. She remains cautiously optimistic, citing Burnham's involvement in developing Leigh Sport Village and addressing illegal rubbish dumping as signs of his commitment to the area.
Reform UK and Green Party Campaigns
Richard Tice, Reform UK's deputy leader, stated the party aims to "make Burnham history" and will exert maximum effort to secure a "seismic" victory in the by-election.
The Green Party has initiated its candidate selection process. Having won the February by-election in Gorton and Denton and made significant gains in recent Manchester local elections, the Greens have tempered expectations regarding their chances in Makerfield.
