Labour Poised to Lose Senedd After Nearly Three Decades of Governance
Labour is anticipated to lose the Senedd election, according to multiple party sources speaking to the BBC, potentially ending its 27-year tenure in Welsh government.
The party has maintained dominance in both Westminster and Cardiff Bay elections in Wales for over a century. However, recent opinion polls indicate that Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are both contending for the leading position.
The Welsh government's deputy first minister, Huw Irranca-Davies, refrained from conceding defeat but acknowledged the election had been "tough" for Labour.
Voting concluded at 22:00 BST on Thursday, with vote counting scheduled for Friday. BBC Wales is providing comprehensive coverage of the results across its online platforms, television, and radio.
First Minister Eluned Morgan's seat is reportedly under threat, with speculation that the Welsh Labour leader may not return to the Senedd.
While a Labour defeat was broadly anticipated following disappointing performances in recent opinion polls, losing in Wales—where the party has led the government since 1999—would carry historic political significance.
A former Welsh government minister told BBC Wales that if the results are "as bad as predicted," UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer should resign as prime minister.
Election Dynamics: Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in Close Contest
Both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK have framed the election as a two-horse race, urging voters to support them over other parties.
For these parties, increasing their number of seats enhances the possibility of governing independently or forming coalitions with other parties.
Plaid Cymru MP Ben Lake told night he expects his party to achieve a "very good result." When asked if Plaid had done enough to secure victory, he stated:
"I think so. It's going to be a very close election. I think we have reason to be satisfied that we've done a very good campaign, that people have liked what they've seen and what they've read, in terms of our policies."
Under Wales' new proportional voting system, no party is expected to secure a majority of 49 out of the 96 Senedd seats. Nevertheless, Reform UK's Welsh leader Dan Thomas expressed optimism on Tuesday that his party might achieve this milestone.
Labour's Response and Reflections on Campaign Challenges
Following the close of polls on Thursday night, Labour's Irranca-Davies commented:
"We know this has been a tough election campaign, fought in difficult circumstances. After many years in government in Wales and with Labour now governing across the UK, there was always going to be a strong mood for change and frustration. The ongoing pressures people face from the cost of living are real and hurt deeply."
Former Welsh counsel general Mick Antoniw described the election as the most challenging for Labour "in living memory." He observed that the campaign appeared to focus "more about Downing Street and immigration than Wales."
"What we have to ensure is that Wales has a progressive and stable government and that almost certainly will require responsible partnership,"
Antoniw, who did not seek re-election on Thursday, added. When questioned about Sir Keir Starmer's future as prime minister, he said:
"If the results are as bad as predicted then there will have to be a change of leadership. Not an immediate departure but a planned, orderly and open transition and an open and transparent contest."
Several Welsh Labour MPs told BBC Wales they did not anticipate a leadership challenge to Sir Keir, despite one frontbencher describing the mood as "at rock bottom." Many called for bolder policies and lessons to be learned.
First Minister Eluned Morgan consistently emphasized during the campaign that Sir Keir was "not on the ballot paper." However, when asked on Wednesday if he could remain prime minister if Labour lost in Wales, she declined to engage in "speculation."
Labour sources reported to BBC Wales that the prime minister's image was negative among voters during doorstep canvassing. While there was a "grudging" acknowledgment of his handling of the UK's response to the Iran war, this was overshadowed by the controversy surrounding Lord Mandelson.
A senior Welsh Labour figure described polling day as "awful," stating:
"I've never known anything like it. We've been knocking on the doors of people who've consistently voted Labour in the past only to find the vast majority have voted Plaid, Reform, Green or importantly stayed at home. The Plaid message 'we're the only party to stop Reform' has really cut through. But Reform have also cashed in big time on disillusionment with Keir Starmer and our Labour government."
Reform UK Campaign and Historical Context of Labour in Wales
Nigel Farage launched Reform UK's campaign by declaring the election a "referendum on Starmer."
A Labour defeat in Wales would be historically significant. Keir Hardie, one of the founders of the modern Labour party, served as MP for Merthyr Tydfil from 1900 to 1915. Since 1922, Labour has emerged as Wales' largest party in every general election.
Labour has also won every Welsh election since the Senedd's establishment in 1999 and has led every Welsh government since, overseeing policies related to health, education, transport, and local government.
If the defeat is confirmed, the Welsh Labour party is likely to enter a period of introspection, learning, and efforts to redefine its strategy to regain voter support.
Nonetheless, depending on Friday's results, Labour could enter negotiations with Plaid Cymru and other parties to form the next Welsh government.
The Welsh election outcome is also expected to influence the prime minister's future as Labour faces challenging local elections in England and the Scottish Parliament election.
Other Parties' Perspectives and Campaigns
Reform UK stated:
"We're proud to have run a campaign based on putting the Welsh people first."
The Welsh Liberal Democrats aim to increase their representation beyond the single seat won by leader Jane Dodds in 2021. Dodds said:
"Whatever the result tonight, our party will continue fighting for stronger local services, a fairer economy and a Wales where every community has the opportunity to thrive."
Additional reporting by Mark Palmer.
from the 2026 Senedd election.
