Labour MPs React to Burnham's Makerfield By-Election Win
Since Andy Burnham secured victory in the Makerfield by-election in the early hours of this morning, Labour MPs have been sending a variety of messages reflecting on the implications for Sir Keir Starmer.
It is Sir Keir Starmer who is at the center of these discussions: the leader who, less than two years ago, guided Labour back into government after 14 years in opposition, and only five years following the party's worst general election defeat.
These MPs represent a broad spectrum of Labour factions, generations, and ministerial levels.
However, they share a common perspective that Sir Keir is now entering a critical phase in his leadership.
Contrasting Views Within Labour
To Sir Keir and his supporters, those advocating for his departure are mistaken.
The argument presented this morning is that the public elected Labour to end the internal conflicts that have plagued the governing party.
"When the Tories lost the last election, Britons were most likely to see them as 'only interested in themselves', 'dishonest' and 'divided'," a document circulated among the prime minister's supporters states. "We cannot allow ourselves to be tarnished in the same way."
Despite Sir Keir's cautions against division, there is a notable degree of unity among many Labour MPs today.
They are increasingly convinced that Burnham's path to Downing Street is assured, with the primary uncertainty being the exact route he will take.
The Inevitable Leadership Contest and the Prospect of a 'Coronation'
The term "coronation" is increasingly used to describe the forthcoming leadership contest, which many now consider unavoidable.
In essence, MPs suggest that a leadership election may not progress to the point where Labour Party members cast their votes.
Instead, it is believed Burnham will emerge as the sole candidate with the necessary endorsement of 81 MPs—likely exceeding that number—and thus be elected by acclamation, similar to Gordon Brown's ascent to Labour leader and prime minister in 2007.
Potential Complications: Wes Streeting and Sir Keir Starmer
One potential complication in this process is Wes Streeting, who resigned as health secretary last month in protest against Sir Keir's leadership.
Despite some skepticism among colleagues, Streeting has recently asserted that he has the support of 81 MPs required to initiate a leadership contest.
It is possible that within days this will become clearer, though Streeting may face significant pressure, including from allies, to support Burnham to facilitate a smooth transition.
The larger complication remains Sir Keir himself, who reaffirmed this morning his intention to stand in any leadership election.
Under Labour's rules, as the incumbent leader, Sir Keir is automatically included on the ballot for party members without needing to secure the 81 MP endorsements.
Therefore, a coronation in the strict sense is not possible. Sir Keir's decision to contest ensures that Labour members will vote.
However, this does not address the fact that Sir Keir is both prime minister and Labour leader. In the UK system, the prime minister must command the confidence of a majority of MPs to govern.
Boris Johnson's resignation in 2022 was precipitated by his inability to maintain a functioning government majority.
The critical question now is whether Sir Keir retains sufficient support among his colleagues to continue leading the government. This will likely become clear in the coming days.
Prime Minister's Remarks and the Future of Labour Leadership
Speaking to Labour Party staff at midday, the prime minister warned that a leadership election would "tear apart our party and our movement."
"When the Tories lost the last election, Britons were most likely to see them as 'only interested in themselves', 'dishonest' and 'divided'," a document being circulated among the prime minister's supporters says. "We cannot allow ourselves to be tarnished in the same way."
Nonetheless, if and when a leadership contest is triggered, Sir Keir must demonstrate that Labour's current turmoil is not primarily driven by his own efforts to maintain power.
