Two Major Obstacles Cleared for Andy Burnham's Parliamentary Return
Two significant barriers to Andy Burnham's return to Parliament have been removed. A Labour MP has resigned, enabling the Greater Manchester mayor to stand as a parliamentary candidate.
Previously, before the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year, Sir Keir Starmer exercised his authority over Labour's National Executive Committee to prevent Burnham from standing. However, this time, Number 10 has indicated it will not block his candidacy again.
Given the recent week in which nearly a third of the party, including the health secretary and four ministers, called for the prime minister's resignation, it was unlikely Sir Keir would have the power to repeat his previous move. Thus, another obstacle has been removed from Burnham's path.
The Remaining Challenge: Winning the Seat
The primary challenge now is whether Burnham can secure the seat. In the general election two years ago, Reform UK came second to Labour with just under a third of the vote. However, in last week's elections, Makerfield—where Burnham intends to stand—witnessed Reform UK decisively defeat Labour, winning all 11 wards and about half the vote in the constituency.
Nigel Farage has already declared that his party "will throw absolutely everything at it." Ahead of what promises to be a contentious and intense contest with Reform UK, early signs of a truce have emerged in Labour's internal conflicts.
Labour MP Josh Simons Steps Down for Burnham
Josh Simons, the Labour MP for Makerfield who is stepping down to make way for Burnham, is not aligned with the same faction of the party as Burnham. Simons is a close ally of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, whose immigration reforms are controversial among Labour's left wing. He also formerly led the think tank Labour Together, associated with the party's right wing and instrumental in Sir Keir's leadership rise.
It is particularly notable that Simons, not a typical Burnham ally, chose to stand down for him.
Burnham's supporters have quickly labeled him a "unity" candidate, hoping this will increase pressure on Sir Keir to announce a timetable for his departure from Downing Street.
Privately, members across Labour's factions have suggested they would support Burnham for leader if he wins the by-election, including those who previously backed other leadership contenders.
"I think Josh [Simons] has just single-handedly given the Labour Party a route to winning back the trust of the British people."
When asked if they supported Burnham becoming leader, the minister replied,
"If he wins [the by-election] we all are."
Another minister, who as recently as Wednesday supported Sir Keir continuing, said,
"It's Burnham now, if he can beat Reform."
An MP from the party's right wing described Simons's decision as "politically brave" and said it "allows us to settle the question of if Andy Burnham is the right person for prime minister once and for all."
Labour Deputy Leader Lucy Powell Backs Burnham
Labour Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, a close friend of Burnham, is expected to publicly endorse him on Friday.
"Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner should all be key players in our team,"
she is anticipated to say.
"Andy wants to come back to Parliament - I've always supported his desire to do so, and I support that again. As Deputy Leader, I am confident he would have the support of the vast majority of the Party and movement in doing so."
Opposition Within Labour and Potential Consequences
However, consensus is not universal. Luke Akehurst, a prominent voice on Labour's right, criticized the internal maneuvering, stating,
"This level of internal game playing risks driving us into a General Election within months, as well as causing months of deep political instability that have real world consequences for the economy and national security. I am, to put it mildly, unimpressed."
Another party member condemned the actions of both Simons and Burnham, saying,
"It is disgraceful behaviour by both of them [Simons and Burnham]. We are the Labour Party. We are not about one person or ego."
In the short term, this situation is likely to result in governmental paralysis. Sir Keir insists he will not resign and has informed allies he will contest any leadership challenge.
Upcoming By-Election in Makerfield
Attention will soon focus on the Makerfield by-election. The contest is expected to be unusual. A former party strategist suggested that Burnham's only viable campaign strategy is to position himself as the candidate who can remove Sir Keir from Downing Street.
If, as Burnham's supporters hope, Sir Keir has already announced a departure date, Burnham will need to campaign against the government's record, promising to move beyond past mistakes and U-turns toward a bolder, more imaginative agenda.
This election will be Burnham's most significant test, having twice previously run for Labour leader. Failure to win would likely end his leadership ambitions. A victory would demonstrate his ability to reverse electoral losses by attracting voters who have shifted to Reform UK, contrasting with Sir Keir's declining poll ratings.
The ultimate prize is almost certainly the Labour leadership and Number 10.
