Andy Burnham urged to adopt economic populism to tackle cost of living crisis
Andy Burnham is being encouraged to pursue an “economic populist” strategy to address the cost of living crisis if he becomes prime minister. This follows a comprehensive opinion poll indicating that radical policies could enable Labour to maintain its majority in the next general election.
Senior advisers to the Makerfield MP have circulated a seat-by-seat poll revealing that Labour’s majority could be severely diminished at the next election, with the party potentially winning fewer than 100 seats.
However, the extensive survey—based on polling approximately 10,000 voters—demonstrates that if Burnham or another successor to Keir Starmer adopts bold policy initiatives, such as rent controls and increased wealth taxes, they could significantly reverse Labour’s fortunes against Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in crucial battleground constituencies nationwide.
Polling reveals potential for Labour majority with radical policies
The Persuasion UK research indicates that Labour running on a platform of “cost of living populism” could secure 34% of the national vote and 358 seats, resulting in a majority of 66.
Conversely, the experimental poll—utilizing the multi-level regression and poststratification (MRP) method—suggests that maintaining the current course could reduce Labour to its lowest parliamentary representation since 1918, with only 95 seats from 19% of the vote share.
The policies tested in the poll included implementing an emergency brake on rent increases by landlords while the government expands the construction and acquisition of social housing; an affordable energy guarantee; reduced bus fares; extending free school meals to all primary-age children; and increasing the tax rate on investors’ profits to match that of workers’ wages.
Pressure mounts on Burnham to pursue bold economic agenda
Burnham faces pressure from Labour MPs, union leaders, political advisers, and business lobbyists regarding his policy direction.
Although he has committed to adhering to Labour’s manifesto, it is widely anticipated that he will explore opportunities to adopt a more ambitious stance following his anticipated succession of Starmer.
A Labour source close to Burnham stated:
“He has made it clear that he would not be pitching business as usual if he replaces Starmer as expected. His instincts are economically interventionist, and he will act with radicalism to boost growth and living standards.”
Angela Rayner, former deputy prime minister, remarked on Burnham’s leadership as mayor of Greater Manchester:
“He’s right that government can’t just tell people to tighten their belts while costs soar. This poll shows that his leadership could transform our politics as well as economics.”
Miatta Fahnbulleh, MP and former thinktank chief executive advising Burnham on economic policy after resigning as a minister over Starmer’s leadership, emphasized the importance of addressing the cost of living:
“The cost of living is the most salient issue and this polling shows it’s not only the right thing to do in terms of addressing what people care about but it also makes sense politically for Labour.”
Consideration of economic policies and internal party debates
Burnham has been contemplating a review of Treasury orthodoxy to challenge existing economic policies, though no final decision has been made.
Nonetheless, some within Labour caution against adopting a fully radical agenda due to concerns about the precarious state of public finances and the potential impact on bond markets.
Pat McFadden, the work and pensions secretary, has been suggested by some MPs as a possible alternative chancellor, viewed as a more cautious choice.
The Persuasion UK research, conducted by Convergent Opinion and co-funded by the philanthropic organisation Global Fund for a New Economy, may reinforce the argument for Burnham to pursue a more assertive government approach as Labour faces diminishing time in power.
According to the MRP data, in the 124 Labour-held seats where Reform UK poses a threat, Labour could retain up to 92 seats on a “cost of living populism” platform, compared to only 41 seats based on current polling. This includes numerous “red wall” constituencies in northern England.
A spokesperson for Burnham stated that he had pledged to provide families with “the breathing space they need by tackling rising costs.”
