Good morning. Today we are getting a new PM. It is the sixth time this has happened in just over a decade (Theresa May replaced David Cameron on 13 July 2016), and so in some respects there is nothing very new or surprising about this. Yet the process has been unusual.
In the past, when parties in power have replaced a PM, generally they have opted for someone popular with their own MPs, but less popular than their predecessor with the public at large (Liz Truss, Theresa May, Gordon Brown), or for someone more popular with the public, but less liked by their own activists (John Major, Rishi Sunak). At the start of the year, anyone looking at polling would have concluded that the logical choice for Labour would have been to replace with Andy Burnham. Labour is not always noted for taking decisions that will be electorally beneficial, but in this case that is what it has achieved. It has replaced a PM who had become an electoral millstone with one of the most admired politicians in the country, and with someone – for the moment at least – with his whole party behind him.
That may not be the case by the end of the day, after Burnham has named his cabinet. We’ll have to see. Here is Rowena Mason’s overnight story about what to expect today.
Burnham has given and, while it does not contain any big new announcements, it is full of intriguing clues as to how he will govern. Two in particular stand out.
First, Burnham said he would be setting out a “10-year plan” for the country. He also told the Times that this was a statement about the scale of his ambitions, not about how long he planned to stay as PM. Patrick Maguire, who interviewed Burnham, said:
double quotation markThis week [Burnham] will tell us of his “ten-year plan for the country”. Perhaps his premiership won’t last that long, he conceded. “I’m not saying that means I’m setting out to say I’m going to be here for ten years … it’s more that we’re not in the right place structurally, we’re not in the right place as a country. I think people can feel that.”
Still, it sounds like Burnham would like to stay for 10 years.
And, second, Burnham dismissed claims that he was an inherent tax raiser. He even suggested that he would like to reverse the freeze in the personal allowance that has functioned as a stealth tax, leading to people paying proportionally more tax every year as their pay goes up but the allowance doesn’t. Burnham told Maguire:
double quotation markOne thing I heard most on the doorsteps in Makerfield was frustration about the personal allowance, frozen at £12,570 … [That complaint] lodged in my mind.
Burnham did not commit to ending the freeze, which would cost billions. But he suggested he was not a kneejerk tax raiser. He told Maguire:
double quotation markThey’re just characterising me as a tax raiser. Well, again, it’s never that simplistic, is it?
Last week Burnham said he thought he might have to ask people to pay “a little more” in tax.
I will post more from the Times interview shortly.
Here is the agenda for the day
11.15am: Keir Starmer gives his final speech from Downing Street, before leaving to tender his resignation to the king.
12.40pm: arrives in Downing Street where he will give a speech, having been appointed PM by the king at Buckingham Palace.
Afternoon: Burnham appoints his cabinet.
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