US-Iran Tensions and the Upcoming World Cup
In just over 100 days, the United States will co-host the football World Cup, a tournament for which Iran has qualified. On Saturday, the US launched an attack on Iran as part of a joint operation with Israel, triggering retaliatory strikes throughout the Middle East.
This escalation raises questions about the implications for Iran, FIFA, and an already politically charged World Cup.
Will Iran Still Participate in the World Cup?
Iran is set to play its group matches in its fourth consecutive World Cup against New Zealand and Belgium in Los Angeles, followed by a match against Egypt in Seattle.
Despite the US bombing three Iranian nuclear facilities last summer, Iran was not withdrawn from the competition. However, the head of Iran's football federation has recently expressed uncertainty regarding their participation.
"With what happened... and with that attack by the United States, it is unlikely that we can look forward to the World Cup, but the sports chiefs are the ones who must decide on that," Mehdi Taj reportedly told Iranian television.
Following the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and amid significant uncertainty about the country's political future, predicting Iran's decision or identifying who would make it remains impossible.
"For Tehran, this is not a short 12-day war or a contained round of escalation that can be paused and reset," said Dr. Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House. "This new stage of conflict is existential and clearly about regime survival. It is also unlikely to end quickly."
FIFA, the global football governing body, has stated it is monitoring the situation. Officials have privately indicated they expect Iran to participate. On Saturday, FIFA's general secretary Mattias Grafstrom said,
"Our focus is to have a safe World Cup with everybody participating."
has inquired with FIFA about potential actions if Iran were to boycott the tournament. There are suggestions that an alternative team from the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) could replace Iran.
Based on this, Iraq—who may qualify through a continental play-off later this month—or the UAE, which narrowly missed qualification, are considered likely candidates to step in.
Meanwhile, Iran's women's team is preparing for their first match in the Asia Cup in Australia, training as planned on the Gold Coast on Sunday.
The AFC issued a statement affirming it is closely monitoring developments in the Middle East during this challenging time and remains in regular contact with the Iran women's national team and officials, offering full support and assistance.
At a pre-match press conference on Sunday, Iran coach Marziyeh Jafari focused on football, describing the tournament as an opportunity to demonstrate "the potential of Iranian women."
Unprecedented Challenges Ahead
Last year, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order banning nationals from 12 countries, including Iran, from entering the US, citing security concerns. However, World Cup players and coaching staff are exempt from this ban.
If Iran participates, heightened security measures are expected around their matches and their planned training base in Arizona.
At the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, security was increased during Iran's matches, including their game against the US, amid widespread anti-government protests in Iran. During their second match against Wales, confrontations occurred between fans with opposing views on Iran's government. Given Trump's advocacy for regime change, a similar scenario could arise this summer.
"We are in uncharted territory in that we are just over three months away from the start of the World Cup and the hosts have just launched a war of aggression against a participating country," said Nick McGeehan of human rights group FairSquare.
"If Iran withdraws its team—an outcome that seems entirely plausible—FIFA is likely to breathe a sigh of relief given the scope for protest and unrest."
Even if Iran does not participate, security will remain a primary concern. The event will also mark the 250th anniversary of the US Declaration of Independence, and former President Trump is expected to be a prominent figure, as he was at the Club World Cup and Ryder Cup last year.
The conflict erupted shortly after US officials warned of "catastrophic" security consequences if the 11 US cities hosting matches do not receive funding, which has been frozen amid a partial government shutdown. Preparations for the tournament are reportedly behind schedule.
Concerns have also grown over the involvement of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency at the tournament and an outbreak of cartel violence in Mexico, a co-host nation.
Over the weekend, Andrew Giuliani, head of the White House's World Cup taskforce, praised Trump's strikes on Iran via social media, stating they would "make the world a safe place." He added,
"We'll deal with soccer games tomorrow. Tonight we celebrate [the Iranian people's] opportunity for freedom."
However, the Middle East conflict is likely to increase scrutiny of FIFA president Gianni Infantino due to his close relationship with Trump.
FIFA's 'Peace Prize' and Political Controversies
In December, FIFA awarded Donald Trump its inaugural 'Peace Prize' at the 2026 World Cup draw ceremony, citing his "pivotal role" in establishing a ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinians and his efforts to end other conflicts.
Since then, the US has engaged in military actions in Venezuela, Nigeria, and Iran, and has suggested possible further operations in Greenland, Mexico (a co-host), and Colombia, another tournament participant. In January, Trump also urged Cuba to "make a deal" or face consequences.
Trump has strongly defended his foreign policy, asserting he acts in the interests of the United States.
Last month, Infantino defended the decision to award the 'Peace Prize,' even attending the first meeting of the US President's Board of Peace wearing a Trump-themed 'USA' cap marked '45-47,' referencing Trump's presidential terms.
Trump's decision to attack Iran has received both support and condemnation, but it has undoubtedly intensified scrutiny of FIFA's alignment with him. Critics argue this risks politicizing the governing body.
In January, 27 politicians from the Labour, Liberal Democrats, Green Party, and Plaid Cymru signed a parliamentary motion urging international sporting bodies to consider expelling the US from major competitions, including the World Cup. The motion stated such events "should not be used to legitimise or normalise violations of international law by powerful states."
That same month, a German Football Association official suggested considering a boycott of the 2026 World Cup in response to Trump's actions.
Such calls may resurface, and Gulf states might also demand sanctions against Iran for its retaliatory strikes on their territories.
FIFA maintains that as an organizer of football events, it has a statutory duty to remain neutral. However, some critics believe FIFA's rules should be strengthened to enable appropriate responses to serious geopolitical events. This is not the first time FIFA has faced pressure over the political actions of a World Cup host.
In 2018, the World Cup proceeded in Russia despite the country's annexation of Crimea four years earlier. Russia was also accused of cyberattacks, interference in Western elections, and the Novichok nerve-agent attack in Salisbury.
Russia was banned by FIFA in 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine, after several European countries refused to compete against it.
Recently, Infantino stated that the ban has not been effective and expressed a desire to lift it. There is no indication he intends to sanction the US, regardless of its controversial foreign policy.
In the past 48 hours, the already complex political context surrounding the World Cup has become even more challenging.
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