Allegations of Interference in Hungarian Elections
The Hungarian government asserts that war-torn Ukraine "will stop at nothing" to prevent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party from winning the forthcoming parliamentary elections. Ministers have alleged preparations for physical violence against Orbán and his family, as well as attacks or sabotage targeting critical energy infrastructure.
Conversely, the Ukrainian government accuses Hungary of inciting a hate campaign designed to intimidate Hungarian voters into supporting Fidesz. Russia is identified as a third party influencing the situation.
The Financial Times reported on Wednesday that the Social Design Agency, a Kremlin-affiliated media consultancy, is orchestrating a large-scale disinformation campaign in Hungary. This campaign aims to strengthen Orbán's position and discredit the opposition Tisza Party and its leader, Peter Magyar.
With only 30 days remaining before Hungary's parliamentary election, analysts are divided. Some interpret the anti-Ukraine rhetoric as a sign of Orbán's anxiety over potential defeat, noting that Fidesz trails the Tisza Party by 39% to 50% in recent polls. Others argue that Orbán is strategically appealing to his electorate by emphasizing national danger, potentially securing a fifth consecutive victory on 12 April.
Pipeline Disruption and Energy Security
Central to the dispute is the disruption of the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline, which supplies oil to Hungarian and Slovak refineries operated by Hungarian entities. Oil deliveries ceased on 27 January following a Russian drone strike that ignited a fire at the Brody oil hub in western Ukraine. Since then, Hungary has received no oil through the pipeline.
Last week, Orbán presented satellite images purporting to show that the pipeline remains intact. He and his ministers accuse Ukraine of deliberately delaying repairs to undermine his re-election prospects by inducing a fuel shortage in Hungary.
However, András Rácz, a security analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations, told the BBC that the Hungarian government is not fully transparent regarding the technical obstacles to resuming Russian oil flow. He explained that the 27 January attack damaged an oil tank containing 75 million litres of crude oil at Brody. To prevent environmental damage, the oil was transferred into the pipeline for storage. This, along with other technical damage from the initial and subsequent Russian attacks, currently prevents restoration of supply. Ukraine estimates repairs could take six weeks.
Political Campaigns and Public Messaging
The anti-Ukraine sentiment in Hungary manifests in various forms. Nationwide, large billboards and illuminated city posters depict Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pleading for financial aid from EU leaders. Other displays juxtapose Zelensky with Peter Magyar, accusing the Tisza Party leader of intending to involve Hungary in the Ukraine conflict by joining what is termed the "pro-war lobby" in Brussels—a claim Magyar strongly denies.
"We are the real party of peace," Magyar asserts during his daily rallies across Hungary.
Orbán and his ministers also conduct nationwide tours, hosting assemblies framed as "anti-war" gatherings for Fidesz supporters.
One particularly striking video, produced using artificial intelligence by Fidesz, features a young girl asking her tearful mother when her father will return home. The scene transitions to a firing squad preparing to execute the blindfolded father, implying that voting for Tisza would lead to such fates for Hungarians. Facebook has dismissed complaints that the advertisement violates its policies on political content and violence.
Security Measures and Public Reactions
In an uncommon peacetime measure, the Hungarian army has been deployed to guard key energy facilities. The government presents this as a reassurance to the public, while opponents interpret it as a tactic to instill fear. In Debrecen, Defence Minister Kristof Szalay-Bobrovniczky warned that the city might be targeted by "hybrid operations" such as sabotage.
The pro-government media largely echo the government's narrative. However, independent journalist Tamas Polgar Toth of the Debreciner news portal reports that many citizens question why, if the threat is genuine, the government has not provided information about air-raid shelters. The Fidesz-affiliated mayor of Debrecen, Laszlo Papp, later indicated that such measures are under consideration.
Financial and Diplomatic Developments
On 21 February, Orbán vetoed an EU loan to Ukraine until oil flow through the Druzhba pipeline is restored. In response, Ukraine secured a €1.5 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund to manage the interim period.
On 4 March, Zelensky intensified tensions by stating:
"We hope that no-one in the European Union will block the €90bn (£78bn) [of EU aid, currently vetoed by Hungary]. Otherwise we will give that person's address to our armed forces so they can call on him and speak to him in their own language."
Although Zelensky did not name Orbán directly, the Hungarian prime minister responded on 6 March:
"They want to get rid of us, with threats if possible, because if nice words don't work, then with threats and blackmail."
Seizure of Ukrainian Assets and Legal Actions
On 5 March, two vehicles belonging to the Ukrainian state savings bank Oschadbank were seized while crossing into Hungary. The operation involved TEK anti-terror troops, who were depicted on the cover of the independent HVG weekly as Orbán's "private army" transporting gold bars around the symbol of the Tisza party.
Pro-government media allege that one of the lawyers representing the Ukrainian bank in efforts to recover its assets is a committed Tisza supporter.
A government decree issued on Monday instructed prosecutors to investigate whether Hungarian criminal, terrorist, or political organizations may have benefited from the assets being transported.
Fact-Finding Mission and Diplomatic Disputes
On Wednesday, members of a so-called fact-finding mission appointed by the Hungarian government entered Ukraine by car. Their stated objective was to assess the Druzhba pipeline's condition and facilitate its restart. Deputy Energy Minister Gábor Czepek posted on Facebook:
"Our job is to assess the status of the pipeline and create conditions for its restart."
Ukraine, however, stated that the group holds no official status and has no scheduled meetings, describing them as tourists rather than a delegation.
This incident triggered further diplomatic tensions. Hungary's Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó accused Zelensky of lying after the Ukrainian president claimed he was unaware of the Hungarian delegation's arrival. Szijjártó published an official note from the Hungarian embassy in Kyiv to support his assertion.
Ukraine responded by stating it had already informed Hungary that the proposed visit dates were unacceptable.
