Potential Jet Fuel Shortages Threaten European Summer Travel
European airports have issued warnings that jet fuel shortages could impact the upcoming summer holiday season if oil supplies do not resume flowing through the Strait of Hormuz within the next three weeks.
Airports Council International (ACI) Europe addressed a letter to Apostolos Tzitzikostas, the EU transport commissioner, indicating that the European Union is approximately three weeks away from experiencing jet fuel shortages.
This alert raises concerns about possible flight cancellations or disruptions to holiday plans if the ongoing conflict involving the US and Israel against Iran persists. Since early March, oil prices have surged following Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage from the Gulf, as a retaliatory measure.
Earlier this week, Donald Trump made statements regarding the situation, yet Brent crude oil prices remained around $96 per barrel on Friday amid ongoing tensions. Prior to the conflict, oil traded at approximately $72 per barrel.
"If the passage through the strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU," the letter stated.
Jet Fuel Prices and Regional Impact
Jet fuel prices have escalated sharply since late February following attacks on Iran ordered by former US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. According to data tracked by the International Air Transport Association (Iata), a global airline lobby group, jet fuel prices had more than doubled compared to the previous year, reaching $1,650 per tonne by the end of last week.
Asia has been the most affected region, with jet fuel prices rising 163% year-on-year. Europe has also experienced a significant increase, with prices up by 138%, amid a global competition to secure fuel supplies.
Michael O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair, Europe’s largest airline, remarked this week that the United Kingdom, despite no longer being an EU member, is the most vulnerable country in Europe to potential jet fuel shortages due to its dependence on supplies from Kuwait.
Supply Chain and Shipping Data
Shipping data provider Vortexa reports that the last cargo of European jet fuel to transit the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict began is scheduled to arrive in Copenhagen tomorrow. This follows a partial cargo delivery to Rotterdam on Monday by the same tanker.
Additionally, the final tanker carrying Gulf jet fuel destined for the UK arrived in Kent on Tuesday aboard the Maetiga vessel from Saudi Arabia.
Historically, Europe has sourced over 60% of its jet fuel from Gulf refineries, with more than 40% of that volume transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's control over this vital trade route has compelled European buyers to compete with Asian markets for alternative cargoes from other regions as Gulf deliveries have diminished.
Market Dynamics and Alternative Routes
The global jet fuel market has been particularly vulnerable to disruptions in the Gulf due to limited alternative export routes, as noted by Australian investment bank Macquarie. While some crude oil exports have circumvented the strait via pipelines, jet fuel lacks such alternatives.
Macquarie anticipates that even if trade flows resume, the market for refined oil products like jet fuel will require an additional two to three months beyond crude oil markets to stabilize.
Airline Responses and Economic Implications
In response to rising fuel costs, airlines worldwide have begun reducing flight frequencies and increasing ticket prices.
These fare increases contribute to higher inflation, but actual shortages of jet fuel could inflict more severe economic consequences if they compel individuals and businesses to cancel travel plans or delay exports.
ACI has expressed "increasing concerns of the airport industry over the availability of jet fuel as well as the need for proactive EU monitoring and action," noting that supplies are further strained by "the impact of military activity on demand."
The situation may become especially critical at the onset of the peak summer travel season, "when air travel enables the whole tourism ecosystem upon which many economies rely," ACI emphasized in their letter, which was first reported by the Financial Times.
Outlook and Industry Predictions
Even if the Strait of Hormuz remains open, the recovery to adequate supply levels will take time. An industry source stated,
"It will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be, given the disruption to the refining capacity in the Middle East."
Prior to the current crisis, Iata had forecasted a 4.9% year-on-year growth in passenger traffic for 2026.
