Missile Test Timing and Regional Implications
The timing of China’s ballistic missile test in the South Pacific, coinciding with the signing of the Ocean of Peace Alliance treaty with Fiji, suggests a deliberate message. This test, conducted by a People’s Liberation Army Navy submarine, involved firing a ballistic missile into the South Pacific nuclear-free zone. It marks the second such missile test China has carried out in the Pacific within two years.
Notably, the test occurred on the same day Fiji became Australia’s fourth partner in the Ocean of Peace Alliance, joining the United States, New Zealand, and Papua New Guinea. The timing of this test can be interpreted as a provocation at best and coercion at worst.
Given the complexity of such military operations, it is unlikely this test was spontaneous. Even with the PLA’s significant advancements over recent decades, missile tests require extensive preparation. It is plausible that the signing of the Ocean of Peace Alliance treaty accelerated the test schedule.
Washington remains a significant factor in Beijing’s strategic calculations and will be closely monitoring these developments. However, the implications for Australia and its regional partners are particularly significant.
Transparency and Regional Reactions
China has complied with the formal requirement to notify regional countries, including Australia and New Zealand, about the missile test. However, this notification was provided only hours before the test, undermining the spirit of transparency intended to build trust or reduce suspicion.
The Chinese foreign ministry has urged regional countries not to "overinterpret" the missile test, but the minimal advance notice weakens this appeal. Demonstrating that a nuclear-capable missile can strike targets thousands of kilometers away raises questions about China’s commitment to "a path of peaceful development."
“Rumours cease when people are truly well-informed, and facts speak louder than words.”
Details of the Missile and Submarine Capabilities
The missile tested was a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), capable of carrying multiple warheads, each potentially nuclear, and striking different targets independently.
This missile has an estimated range of approximately 8,000 kilometers, suggesting it could have been launched from a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine operating in the South China Sea.
China currently operates six such submarines. Its Bohai shipyards have the capacity to build approximately one nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine per year. Additionally, satellite imagery from Shanghai indicates that a second shipyard has begun constructing nuclear-powered submarines.
Context of China’s Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific
Alongside this missile test, China’s naval task group conducted a large-scale exercise last year that included live-fire drills. The Chinese navy has also engaged in harassment of Australian naval vessels, aircraft, and personnel conducting lawful freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea.
These actions collectively indicate China’s increasing readiness to use military force to coerce Indo-Pacific states into adopting policies favorable to Beijing. China seeks to prevent Australia from conducting legal passage operations in international waters, aiming to reinforce its territorial claims in the South China Sea.
Since the era of Mao Zedong, the People’s Liberation Army has been tasked with implementing weishe, a strategy roughly translated as coercion. Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, weishe has expanded to preserve Beijing’s "core interests" and actively shape regional dynamics. This missile test exemplifies China’s willingness to employ overt military demonstrations as part of this approach.
Contradictions with Regional Cooperation Principles
Whether or not the missile test was intentionally timed to coincide with the Ocean of Peace Alliance treaty, it contradicts the principles of "mutual respect, equal treatment, mutual benefit and win-win outcomes, openness and inclusiveness" that underpin regional cooperation.
Pacific nations, including Australia, have committed to maintaining the Pacific as an ocean of peace. In contrast, China’s missile test introduces an element of military threat, metaphorically replacing peace with "pieces of shrapnel in the ocean."
