Microsoft's Quantum Leap in Chip Reliability
Microsoft has announced that its latest quantum chip, Majorana 2, is significantly more reliable than its predecessor, Majorana 1, marking a critical advancement toward a quantum computer capable of solving commercially useful problems within three years.
Quantum computing centers on qubits, which hold the potential to address problems beyond the reach of current machines but are known for their fragility and instability.
According to Microsoft, the qubits on Majorana 2 maintain coherence for an average of 20 seconds, a substantial increase from the milliseconds achieved by Majorana 1.
This improvement makes the new chip 1,000 times more reliable, a performance gain Microsoft likens to the difference between a phone that requires daily charging and one that lasts several years on a single charge.
"We will have a quantum machine in 2029 that can solve commercially viable, reasonable problems," said Zulfi Alam, corporate vice president of Microsoft Quantum.
Achieving this goal will necessitate significant further progress, as such a device would require millions of qubits, whereas the current chip contains only 12, Alam noted.
Evaluating Microsoft's claims is challenging because the company does not publicly disclose the full details of its discoveries, citing commercial confidentiality.
There is a global race to develop quantum computing technology due to its potential to tackle tasks currently deemed too complex for even the most powerful traditional computers.
Microsoft has dedicated 20 years to pursuing a quantum computing approach known as "topological" quantum computing.
This approach exploits the properties of a quasi-particle predicted in the 1930s by Italian physicist Ettore Majorana, which until recently existed only in theory.
To realize this, Microsoft had to utilize a novel state of matter, distinct from the three familiar states of liquid, solid, or gas.
Paul Stevenson, a physics professor at the University of Surrey, commented on the timeline, stating it sounded plausible if Microsoft's research substantiates its claims.
"Microsoft appears to have made a leap in their attempt to produce viable topological qubits," he said.
"If they succeed, they will leap from being a player with no production quantum computer, to being a serious player in the race to make the next generation of fault-tolerant machines."
False Start and Continued Commitment
Microsoft's focus on topological qubits has faced controversy. In 2018, the company retracted a paper published in the journal Nature that claimed evidence for the Majorana quasi-particle.
Despite this setback, Microsoft continued its research and released its first Majorana chip in 2025.
However, skepticism persisted among experts regarding Microsoft's claims about Majorana qubits.
Henry Legg, a physicist at the University of St Andrews, expressed doubts at the time, telling the BBC that Microsoft's quantum research had "moved firmly away from science and entered the realm of faith."
Today, Jason Zander, executive vice president of Microsoft Quantum and Discovery, reaffirmed the company’s confidence.
"We stand behind it 100%."
"We really look to scientific rigor. We welcome the debate that has always been part of physics... the key thing I would tell people, go read the papers and look what's there, go talk to the experts that we have given deep information to."
Microsoft is participating in the final phase of a quantum development program led by the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa), which aims to "verify and validate the firm's utility-scale quantum computer concept." Microsoft has shared all relevant data and methodologies, including commercially sensitive information, with Darpa for evaluation.
Nevertheless, a paper published alongside the announcement has not undergone peer review, a process involving independent expert evaluation, and scientists consulted by the BBC have requested additional information.
The second-generation Majorana chip operates on the same principles as the first but achieves greater effectiveness partly by replacing aluminium with lead as the superconductor.
While artificial intelligence is being employed to enhance and accelerate research, Zander emphasized that human scientists originated the idea of changing materials.
The Qubit Quandary and Future Applications
Microsoft's projected timeline suggests that quantum computers could eventually tackle problems requiring decades to solve, such as eliminating microplastics or developing improved fertilizers for agriculture.
Zander envisions a collaborative role for humans, AI, and quantum computers.
"If you look at removing forever chemicals, getting rid of microplastics, things like that, those are things traditionally, if we take 15, 20, 30 years to figure out that's a very long time," he said.
"We want to compress that time cycle as much as possible, and so being able to have humans with AI move quicker and compress that timeframe, I think is actually great.
"So it's not about eliminating humans, it's about giving humans tools that can help them accelerate that process, that's actually going to help society, I think."
However, a fundamental challenge remains: qubits are extremely fragile, with even minor temperature fluctuations or vibrations causing errors.
Extending qubit coherence times is a major hurdle for the entire quantum computing industry.
Quantum machines are still in their infancy, and although many companies are racing to build scalable quantum computers, none are known to have succeeded yet.
Some experts believe that current classical computers may have more potential than previously thought.
Sir Demis Hassabis, co-founder of Google DeepMind, recently remarked to author Sebastian Mallaby in the book The Infinity Mind,
"We don't know what the limit [of classical computers] is."
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