Lake Powell Faces Unprecedented Low Water Levels
Lake Powell, the second-largest reservoir in the United States, is at risk of reaching historically low water levels this year following a notably poor snowpack that failed to replenish its reserves, according to scientists and water experts. This situation has intensified the urgency surrounding stalled negotiations on conserving this vital water source, which supports tens of millions of people in the US southwest.
The 185-mile reservoir on the Colorado River currently holds approximately 22% of its capacity, equating to about 5.6 million acre-feet of water. Lake Powell briefly fell below this level for a few months three years ago. However, those low levels were recorded during winter, when the reservoir—situated on the Utah-Arizona border—typically reaches its lowest point. In 2023, spring runoff increased the reservoir’s volume to 9.6 million acre-feet by June, as reported by the US Bureau of Reclamation.
This year, however, the reservoir’s water levels barely increased during spring. A diminished snowpack in the mountains combined with a heatwave resulted in minimal runoff. Even with supplemental water releases from the upstream Flaming Gorge Reservoir, Lake Powell ended June below its previous annual low and is projected to continue declining. Aside from a few months in 2023, the reservoir has not been this low since June 1965, two years after its initial filling by US authorities.
“What’s unique this year is that there was no recovery at all,” said Jack Schmidt, director of Utah State University’s Center for Colorado River Studies. “What we expect to happen is that Lake Powell will go to unprecedented low conditions some time this fall.”
“Water management in the Colorado River system is starting to get terribly complicated,” he added.
Projected Decline and Consequences
With the spring runoff season concluded, Lake Powell’s water level is expected to continue dropping over the next eight months. This decline could have significant impacts, including jeopardizing hydroelectric power generation and increasing uncertainty in ongoing negotiations over water allocation. The Colorado River supplies water to 40 million people across seven US states, numerous tribal nations, and two countries.
Currently, Lake Powell’s water level is only 37 feet above the minimum threshold at which its electricity-generating turbines begin to fail. The Glen Canyon power plant at Lake Powell provides power to nearly six million households and businesses.
For over 20 years, Lake Powell and its downstream counterpart, Lake Mead, have been steadily losing capacity, despite reductions in water use by the millions who depend on them. Negotiations among the seven US states entitled to Colorado River water—California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming—have thus far failed to reach consensus on conservation measures. The US Bureau of Reclamation may impose its own water cut plan if the deadlock continues.
Climate Change and Water Management Challenges
Experts warn that the reservoir system is approaching a critical breaking point as the western US experiences warming and drying trends due to climate change.
“In the 21st century, the ultimate cause of the problem is declining runoff,” Schmidt explained. “There’s less water in the system. It’s caused by a warming climate, period.”
In response to these challenges, many southwestern cities are adopting innovative strategies to secure alternative water supplies. Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, noted that cities are preparing to deploy various tools and have developed voluntary frameworks to assist one another amid the Colorado River shortage.
Phoenix exemplifies a major city that can no longer rely on the Colorado River to meet its water needs or replenish its diminishing groundwater. Like other cities originally dependent on the river, Phoenix is investing in water recycling technologies to convert wastewater back into drinking water.
Similarly, San Diego recently announced plans to utilize surplus water from its desalination plant to negotiate a water-sharing agreement with Arizona and Nevada. This deal, still pending finalization, would enable those arid states to purchase some of San Diego’s unused Colorado River water rights.
Brad Udall, a water and climate research scientist at Colorado State University, stated, “There are too many straws in the glass. Rather than having an annual fight over who gets what, let’s remove some straws … One way to do that is the American way – let’s buy ‘em out.”
Udall emphasized that the Colorado River crisis is a rare instance where climate change is compelling a fundamental reassessment of a century’s worth of water law, policy, interstate compacts, and international treaties governing this water source.
“You see climate change impacts across the globe, like big floods, hurricanes – but people pick up the pieces and kind of go back to the way they were living before,” Udall said. “But here, because the flows are so low, we’re going to have to start buying out or cutting off water users, and the rules we have are completely inadequate to the task.”
Potential Outcomes and Future Outlook
The most severe forecasts have raised concerns that Lake Powell could reach “deadpool” status, a condition where water levels fall so low that gravity can no longer facilitate downstream releases.
However, Schmidt expressed that such an outcome is unlikely, as authorities would intervene to prevent it through enforced water use reductions and additional releases from Flaming Gorge Reservoir.
Despite these interventions, experts anticipate that Lakes Powell and Mead will remain significantly depleted for the foreseeable future, continuing to provide reduced water supplies to the region.
“We have control over how bad it gets,” said Porter. “But the only thing we can do to keep it from getting bad is to take less water out.”
