Immediate, but temporary, relief is the initial economic reaction to the announcement of a two-week ceasefire: global stock markets rallied, and crude oil prices dropped sharply.
However, there is less optimism regarding the extent to which this will benefit consumers financially, as concerns remain that long-term damage has already been inflicted.
Over the past month, shipments of oil, liquefied natural gas, and fertiliser have been effectively blocked from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while significant damage to facilities in the Gulf has halted production.
Even if the ceasefire holds and a peace agreement is reached promptly, analysts estimate that it will take several months to restart production and restore supplies to normal levels.
No immediate change to rising fuel prices
Despite the sharp fall in crude oil prices today, they remain higher than pre-conflict levels, and drivers should not expect a significant reduction in pump prices soon, according to the RAC.
Simon Williams, head of policy at the RAC, notes that there is still considerable uncertainty for motorists, and their best hope is for fuel prices at the pump to stabilise in the coming days.
He adds that some smaller independent forecourts, which purchase oil at daily market prices rather than in advance at fixed rates, may be quicker to pass on any price reductions.
"Much will depend on the stability of the ceasefire, whether oil shipments can move freely through the Strait of Hormuz, and the longer‑term impact on oil production across the Gulf," he says.
Williams emphasises that a sustained lower price over several weeks is necessary to meaningfully reduce wholesale fuel costs.
Rachel Winter, from wealth management firm Killik & Co, states that predicting how quickly pump prices might fall is difficult.
"I would expect it to take at least a few weeks, if not a few months," she told BBC Radio 4's Today Programme.
Meanwhile, jet fuel prices remain roughly double their pre-war levels.
Willie Walsh, chief executive of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), says that even if traffic through the waterway resumes immediately, it will take months for supplies to reach necessary levels.
Passengers should anticipate higher ticket prices in the interim, he adds.
Some airlines have already increased fares, while others have reduced routes.
Winter also notes that even if jet fuel begins flowing through the strait, it still requires refining, and some refining facilities have been damaged.
Alan Gelder, senior vice-president of Refining, Chemicals and Oil Markets at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, explains that the entire supply chain must return to normal, including ships reaching the correct locations and refineries resuming operations. He believes this process will take "weeks, not days."
Food still expected to become more pricey
Approximately one-third of the world's fertiliser typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz, causing prices to surge in recent weeks.
It has already become more expensive to transport food across the UK and for farmers to operate agricultural machinery powered by increasingly costly diesel. Crop growers who use energy to heat greenhouses will also face price increases when the energy price cap resets in July.
The Food and Drink Federation, representing thousands of UK manufacturers, states that the ceasefire has not ended the "long‑term uncertainty."
Dr Liliana Danila, chief economist at the Federation, expects recovery of supply chains and energy infrastructure in the Gulf to take between six months and a year.
"This means manufacturers will continue to feel the impact of supply chain disruptions for oil, gas, fertiliser, packaging materials and essential cleaning chemicals, keeping costs under strain for months to come."
Even if the conflict ends within the next two weeks, the Federation anticipates UK food inflation will reach at least 9% before the end of the year.
Wholesale gas prices likely to stay high
So far, households protected by Ofgem's energy price cap have been shielded from the surge in wholesale energy prices.
The cap resets every three months, with the next reset in July. The regulator uses data from the preceding period to calculate the new price, and experts have predicted a significant increase at this point.
The government has pledged support based on household income but has indicated that assistance may not be available until autumn.
Dr Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, says that while the ceasefire alleviates some immediate pressure on gas markets, it "does not wipe the slate clean."
If the Strait of Hormuz reopens and remains open, this will ease prices and be reflected in the July price cap, he explains, but adds:
"Unless prices fall well below where they were before the conflict, the wholesale price rises seen through March and early April will still feed through to bills."
Lars Jensen from Vespucci Maritime notes that companies will seek assurances regarding the safe transit of vessels and doubts that the two-week pause will be sufficient to restore trust.
"We should see an increase in exiting vessels," he told Today.
"We will likely also begin to see a trickle of vessels going into the Gulf, but those two will not be of the same magnitude."
Beyond the movement of ships through the strait, Lowrey points out that damage to gas infrastructure in Qatar will take years to repair, meaning supply constraints will persist.
"As a result, even with a ceasefire, wholesale gas prices are likely to stay elevated for some time, limiting how far the July price cap can fall."
