Australia’s resilient labour market remains a bright spot in the economy, but stronger-than-expected jobs data has sharpened expectations of another interest rate rise. On Thursday, after the Australian Bureau of Statistics released another strong labour force report showing more than 76,000 jobs were added in June, bond traders increased bets that the Reserve Bank will raise rates for a fourth time in 2026.
The market is now fully pricing in a rate hike by Christmas, whereas a few weeks ago it was a 50-50 chance. Rising oil prices following renewed hostilities in the Middle East are also adding to inflation concerns, and June quarter inflation data due next week will be crucial to the RBA’s next rates decision in August, even though the figures may already be dated by then.
Brent crude oil prices have risen from $US72 a barrel to in recent weeks. As a rule of thumb, each dollar higher in the benchmark oil price adds about a cent per litre to petrol prices at the bowser.
What did Jim Chalmers say about a gas tax?
Jim Chalmers said the government has
“other priorities”than a gas tax, despite growing calls from Labor members for reform.
The government received backing from party members and MPs at Labor’s conference on Thursday to seek a
“fairer return”from Australia’s natural resources. Anthony Albanese ruled out any prospect that this would turn into a new gas export tax in the foreseeable future.
Chalmers told the ABC’s 730 on Thursday night:
I think that language in the platform reflected the balance that we have been seeking to strike ... I acknowledge that there are people around the country and including people in our movement who would like us to go further. But we did take some important steps in that regard to get a fairer return.
He pointed to reforms he had already made to the petroleum resource rent tax and the government’s plan for a gas reservation on Australia’s east coast. He also said the government wanted to maintain relationships with countries that rely on Australian gas.
The reason why a gas tax has not been on our agenda is because we’ve got other priorities, whether it’s reservation, the PRRT changes I’ve already made, or making sure that we are a reliable international supplier. That’s the government’s focus.
How is Chalmers framing Labor’s economic message?
Jim Chalmers has said rightwing political parties will
“prey on”voter insecurities about a worsening economy while promoting
“anti-worker”policies.
The treasurer previewed Labor’s economic attack lines for the next election campaign in an interview with 7.30 at the party’s national conference in Adelaide last night. He said One Nation, the Coalition and the Nationals did not have plans that would ease the pressure on workers.
We’re actually acting to do something about it … our political opponents, the seek to prey on those pressures and those anxieties that people feel, at the same time as their anti-worker agenda would make things worse rather than better.
Chalmers said real wages had grown for most of the last two and half years, the government had cut taxes
“five times in three different ways”, and unemployment was low.
However, real incomes are set to decline, with high inflation meaning workers are expected to have less money left after paying for essentials. Asked how he would address declining real wages, Chalmers said:
We’ve done a whole range of things to boost wages in our economy because, deliberately, we believe that one of the best ways to help with these cost-of-living pressures is to make sure that people are paid decent wages. That’s been our [Labor’s] reason for being for more than a hundred years.
What else is happening in the live blog?
The live blog opened with Martin Farrer handing over to Kat Wong for the day’s coverage. Martin Farrer wrote:
Good morning and welcome to our live news blog. I’m Martin Farrer with the top overnight stories before your regular blogger takes the reins.
He added that Chalmers had claimed rightwing political parties will
“prey on”voter insecurities about a worsening economy while championing
“anti-worker”policies, that markets are now expecting another rate hike by the end of the year, and that he continues to push back at rank and file Labor members’ calls for a new tax on gas exports, saying the government had
“other priorities”for reform.
He also said there was more to come on the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons Australia, which said it is alarmed that Saudi Arabia could use its uranium enrichment deal with the US to build nuclear weapons.
The blog also noted that Anthony Albanese called to congratulate Andy Burnham.
Key Facts
- More than 76,000 jobs were added in June, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
- Bonds traders now expect the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates for a fourth time in 2026.
- The market is fully priced for a rate hike by Christmas.
- Jim Chalmers said the government has
“other priorities”
than a gas tax. - Labor’s conference backed a push for a
“fairer return”
from Australia’s natural resources.
