Strikers in Form Yet Overlooked
Oli McBurnie and Ross Stewart have demonstrated strong scoring form for their clubs recently.
On Sunday night, Scotland manager Steve Clarke stated he was "more or less set in my mind" regarding the 26 players he plans to take to the World Cup, though he mentioned that two spots might still be undecided.
He didn't elaborate but you'd hope - probably a forlorn hope - that the Scotland manager has an open mind on his chosen strikers because if he's still weighing things up on that front then the weekend gave him much to ponder.
Ross Stewart, Tommy Conway, George Hirst, Kieron Bowie, and Oli McBurnie all scored for their clubs over the weekend, with McBurnie netting twice. Robbie Ure, a former Scotland U-21 player, did not score, which was a change for him. Although Ure is not considered for Clarke's squad, he has scored four goals in six games for IK Sirus, currently top of Sweden's Allsvenskan.
Scoring Challenges for Scotland
Clarke faces a persistent challenge with goal scoring from his strikers, a problem as old as the team itself. Scotland has now gone two consecutive games without scoring, failing to find the net against Japan and Ivory Coast. The main forwards, Che Adams and Lyndon Dykes, are hardworking and committed but have struggled to pose a significant threat.
While the qualifying campaign was successful, featuring remarkable goals from Scott McTominay, Kenny McLean, and Kieran Tierney, Clarke's preferred strikers managed only seven shots on target across six games. Adams accounted for six of those shots, scoring twice in 446 minutes, while Dykes had one shot on target in six games (171 minutes), which he converted.
Whether the fault lies with teammates not providing opportunities or strikers missing chances, this remains a critical issue for Scotland.
Potential for Change in Striker Selection
Questions arise whether Clarke will alter his striker options or if he even desires to do so. If he does consider changes, it is uncertain whether he is looking at the right candidates.
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Historical Scoring Record Under Clarke
Clarke has led Scotland to two European Championships, where the team scored three goals in six games, including an own goal against Germany and a heavily deflected goal from McTominay against Switzerland. Only Callum McGregor scored directly in those group games, against Croatia in Clarke's first Euros.
There is concern Clarke may be reluctant to make bold changes, as he tends to rely on familiar players. It is expected that his squad will include five or six strikers or wingers such as Che Adams, Lawrence Shankland, Lyndon Dykes, George Hirst, Tommy Conway, and Ben Gannon-Doak, whom he trusts.
Comparing Performance Across Leagues
Comparing goal-scoring levels across different leagues is challenging. For example, Kieron Bowie scored for Hellas Verona against Juventus, while Lawrence Shankland's goals in the Scottish Premiership must be weighed against Adams' goals in Serie A. The relative strength of teams involved also complicates comparisons.
Striker Rankings Based on Current Season Metrics
Based on shot conversion rates this season, the ranking of Clarke's centre-forward options is as follows:
- Ross Stewart (Southampton)
- Oli McBurnie (Hull City)
- Lawrence Shankland (Heart of Midlothian)
- George Hirst (Ipswich Town)
- Tommy Conway (Middlesbrough)
- Kieron Bowie (Hibernian/Hellas Verona)
- Che Adams (Torino)
- Lyndon Dykes (Birmingham City/Charlton Athletic)
When considering minutes per goal, Stewart remains first, Shankland moves to second, and McBurnie drops to third. Adams and Dykes remain seventh and eighth.
On goals plus assists, McBurnie leads, followed by Shankland and Conway, with Adams and Dykes still at the bottom.
Ross Stewart's Recent Form
On Saturday, Stewart scored for Southampton, helping them secure a play-off spot for the Premier League. This was his seventh goal in 14 games and 10th in 31 for the season, which has been interrupted by injury, causing him to miss 16 matches over three seasons. He appears fit and in good form now.
Stewart scored the winning goal that eliminated Fulham from the FA Cup in March and netted again when Southampton defeated Arsenal in April. Despite this, he is rarely mentioned as a potential squad member for the World Cup, which many consider surprising.
This season, Stewart averages a goal every 122 minutes, with a shots-per-goal ratio of 3.3 and a conversion rate of 30.3%, marking him as one of the most efficient goal scorers in the league.
Clarke's Loyalty and Squad Selection
Clarke values loyalty to players who helped Scotland qualify for the World Cup. Stewart was not part of that group but, based on current form, could be a valuable asset to help Scotland advance beyond the group stage.
Oli McBurnie's Performance and Relationship with Clarke
McBurnie scored twice for Hull in a 2-1 victory over Wrexham on Saturday, securing Hull's place in the Championship play-offs alongside Southampton. He has scored 18 goals in 39 games this season, including seven assists, despite missing two months due to injury.
His scoring rate is a goal every 172 minutes, with a shot conversion rate of 24% and a goal every 4.2 shots.
Recently, McBurnie reached out to Clarke regarding his chances of making the World Cup squad. According to McBurnie, Clarke's response was not very encouraging, though the manager may not be as dismissive as suggested.
Some recall McBurnie's earlier Scotland career under Alex McLeish and Clarke, where he had opportunities but failed to score in 16 caps (seven starts) and was involved in controversy regarding commitment. It has been five years since his last Scotland appearance.
In the final weeks of the Championship season, McBurnie scored five goals in five games as Hull pushed for the play-offs.
While few expect McBurnie to return to the Scotland squad, if Clarke has already ruled out Stewart and McBurnie, he may be ignoring two players currently performing with confidence.
Clarke's Focus and Other Strikers
Clarke did not watch Southampton or Hull on Saturday but instead observed Findlay Curtis scoring for Kilmarnock against Dundee United.
Lawrence Shankland, with a goal every 152 minutes and a 17.7% shot conversion rate, is a likely squad member and a front-runner if form is prioritized. George Hirst impressed in the friendly against Ivory Coast, showing hunger and work rate. He scored in Ipswich's 3-0 win over QPR, securing their promotion to the Premier League. Hirst has 11 goals in 44 games, scoring every 202 minutes with a 15.5% conversion rate.
Tommy Conway and Kieron Bowie also scored on the final day of the Championship, both ranking ahead of Adams and Dykes in performance metrics.
Despite this, Adams and Dykes remain Clarke's preferred strikers. Adams is almost certain to travel to the World Cup, and Dykes is expected to be included regardless of his limited club performance, having scored five goals in 43 games for Birmingham and Charlton. His value lies more in his character and squad presence than current form.
Current Form Versus Managerial Preference
Statistically, Stewart, McBurnie, and Shankland are Clarke's most in-form strikers. However, Clarke likely ranks Stewart and McBurnie lower in his pecking order, if he has acknowledged them at all.
Bowie is also unlikely to be selected. Since transferring from Hibernian, he has scored three goals in 11 games for Hellas Verona, accounting for 50% of their goals during that period, whereas Adams has five goals in 27 games for Torino. Verona currently sit 19th in Serie A, while Torino are 13th.
Conclusion
Steve Clarke has done an excellent job as Scotland manager and is entitled to select his squad as he sees fit. Nevertheless, there is substantial evidence suggesting he should consider options beyond his usual selections. He has capable alternatives should he choose to explore them.
