Premier League Season Finale: What’s at Stake?
The final round of Premier League fixtures on Sunday will determine the outcomes for several clubs across Europe qualification and relegation battles.
Arsenal secured their first league title in 22 years on Tuesday, but the concluding matches will finalize the remaining European qualification places and the last relegation spot.
At the summit, Arsenal, Manchester City, and Manchester United have secured Champions League qualification and will finish in the top three positions.
Aston Villa have also qualified for the Champions League; however, the result of Wednesday’s Europa League final and Villa’s final league standing will influence whether one or two additional English clubs qualify for the Champions League on the last day.
At the bottom, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley have been relegated to the Championship. They will be joined by either Tottenham Hotspur or West Ham United.
Below is a detailed overview of what remains at stake on the final day of the Premier League season.
How Does Champions League Qualification Work?
Aston Villa moved three points clear of Liverpool with a win over them last Friday
The qualification process can be complex, but Villa’s Europa League final result against Freiburg will clarify the situation.
England has secured one of two Elite Performance Spots (EPS) for next season’s Champions League, allowing five Premier League clubs to participate instead of the usual four. Spain has also guaranteed five clubs.
Currently, Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Aston Villa occupy four of these spots.
Because of Villa’s involvement in the Europa League final, there is a possibility that six English clubs could qualify for the Champions League next season.
For this to occur, Villa must win the Europa League final and finish fifth in the league.
At present, Villa are fourth, three points ahead of fifth-placed Liverpool. Liverpool would need to defeat Brentford and hope Villa lose at Manchester City to overtake them.
Supporters of Bournemouth and Brighton also have an interest in this scenario. If six English clubs qualify for the Champions League, one of these teams could join Liverpool as a sixth English representative.
Bournemouth requires only a point at Nottingham Forest to secure a top-six finish.
Brighton must beat Manchester United and hope Bournemouth loses to finish sixth.
If Villa lose the Europa League final, the top five English clubs will qualify for the Champions League.
Liverpool would need just a point to guarantee a top-five finish. However, if Liverpool lose at home to Brentford, they would fail to finish fifth only if Bournemouth wins at Forest and overturns a six-goal deficit in goal difference.
Who Qualifies for the Europa League?
Bournemouth's 1-1 draw with Manchester City on Tuesday means they have qualified for Europe for the first time
Bournemouth have secured at least a seventh-place finish, guaranteeing qualification for either the Champions League or Europa League.
Currently, sixth and seventh places qualify for UEFA’s second-tier competition due to Manchester City winning the FA Cup and England securing an EPS.
If six English clubs qualify for the Champions League, one Europa League spot will be lost, meaning only seventh place would qualify for the Europa League.
If Bournemouth surpass Liverpool in the table and English clubs do not have six Champions League teams, Liverpool would be one of two teams qualifying for the Europa League next season.
Brighton currently occupy seventh place with a one-point lead over Chelsea and Brentford, who lie directly below them.
A win for Brighton would guarantee Europa League football.
If Brighton fail to win and Chelsea defeat Sunderland, Chelsea would overtake Brighton.
Chelsea can also overtake Brighton with a draw if Brighton lose by two goals and Brentford fail to win at Anfield.
Sunderland themselves could finish in the top seven if Brighton lose and Brentford drop points.
What About Conference League Qualification?
Chelsea's 2-1 win over Tottenham on Tuesday means they are in a European qualification spot at present heading into the final day of the season
The qualification for the single available spot in the play-off qualifying round of next season’s Conference League is similarly contested.
Chelsea currently hold eighth place and possess this spot. Eighth place qualifies for the Conference League due to Manchester City winning the EFL Cup and England securing an EPS.
Chelsea will secure European football in at least the Conference League with a win over Sunderland.
Brentford will secure a top-eight finish if they achieve a better result than Chelsea.
Sunderland, currently tenth, could leapfrog both if they beat Chelsea and Brentford drop points.
What About Relegation?
Defeat for West Ham at Newcastle last Sunday means they have to beat Leeds United to stand any chance of survival
Wolves and Burnley have already been relegated. The final relegation spot will be occupied by either Tottenham Hotspur or West Ham United.
Tottenham, currently 17th, have a significant advantage going into the final day. They are two points ahead of West Ham and have a 12-goal superior goal difference.
While not mathematically guaranteed, a draw for Tottenham at home against Everton would almost certainly confirm their Premier League status for next season.
The only scenario where this would not happen is if Spurs draw and West Ham were to beat Leeds by 12 or more goals, a scoreline that has never happened in the 34-year history of the Premier League.
A win for Roberto De Zerbi’s side guarantees safety.
West Ham must beat Leeds to have any chance of survival. If West Ham win and Tottenham lose to Everton, the Hammers will remain in the Premier League.
This article is the latest from ’s Ask Me Anything team.
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