Forest thrash Sunderland to boost survival hopes
Nottingham Forest delivered a remarkable 5-0 victory over Sunderland on Friday, significantly increasing their distance from the Premier League relegation zone.
This result elevated Vitor Pereira's team to 39 points, placing them eight points ahead of 18th-placed Tottenham and six points clear of 17th-placed West Ham.
It has been 15 years since any Premier League team was relegated with 39 points.
With Forest unbeaten in their last eight matches across all competitions, questions arise whether the fight to avoid the final relegation spot has effectively become a contest between Tottenham and West Ham.
Are Forest definitely safe? What the stats say
Forest manager Vitor Pereira cautioned on BBC Match of the Day that his side's current points tally "isn't enough" to guarantee Premier League survival just yet.
"We need more points, we need to win more games and we need to keep our mentality," he said.
However, historical data suggests Pereira's caution may be justified but perhaps overly conservative.
Across Premier League history, 23 teams have reached exactly 39 points after 34 games, and none have been relegated.
This supports the argument that Forest, along with Leeds United who currently have 40 points, may already have sufficient points to remain in the top flight.
Considering 38-game seasons, the average points total for the team finishing 18th is 34.5, indicating that 35 points is generally enough to avoid relegation.
More encouragingly for Forest and Leeds supporters, the average points tally for the 18th position over the past five seasons has dropped to 29.6.
Only six teams have ever been relegated from the Premier League with 39 or more points in a full 38-game season, the most recent being Birmingham City and Blackpool in the 2010-11 campaign.
"Is 39 points enough to keep you up? Yes, but you have to work on the basis that anything is still possible," former England midfielder Jamie Redknapp told Sky Sports following Forest's victory.
"You are asking Tottenham to win four games... is that going to be possible? We don't know. Back-to-back wins and it all changes."
Mathematically, Forest require eight more points to secure their place in the Premier League for a fifth consecutive season.
Tottenham could theoretically reach 46 points if they win all five remaining fixtures.
Forest's upcoming matches are against Chelsea, Newcastle United, Manchester United, and Bournemouth.
Tottenham's remaining opponents include Wolves, Aston Villa, Leeds United, Chelsea, and Everton.
West Ham's schedule features Everton, Brentford, Arsenal, Newcastle, and Leeds.
'The result of the season'
Within six minutes of the first half, Forest extended their lead from 1-0 to 4-0 by capitalizing on Sunderland errors and demonstrating a clinical finishing ability not previously seen in the season's first half.
Chris Wood scored his first goal since a double on the opening day, having missed most of the campaign due to a knee injury.
Igor Jesus impressed with his goal, former Newcastle midfielder Elliot Anderson also scored, and Morgan Gibbs-White continued his excellent form by netting again, marking seven goals in seven games.
Redknapp described the match as "the result of the season."
"In the predicament Forest are in, to go to Sunderland and win 5-0, yes Sunderland's home form hasn't been great of late but this is still a difficult place to go, and they had real quality," Redknapp added.
"An unbelievable result. I can only imagine what Nuno Espirito Santo and Roberto de Zerbi are thinking. They are probably watching from behind the sofa thinking, 'we've got it all on now'."
Forest striker Chris Wood told Sky Sports that being eight points clear of relegation is "massive" for the club.
"It gives us a bit of breathing room and it also puts a bit of pressure on the two chasing behind," he said.
What now for Spurs & West Ham?
While Nottingham Forest took the first significant step of the weekend on Friday, Tottenham and West Ham both played simultaneously on Saturday.
West Ham hosted Everton and former manager David Moyes, while Tottenham visited already relegated Wolves.
Tottenham manager Roberto de Zerbi, whose side conceded a last-minute equalizer in a 2-2 draw with Brighton in their previous match, stated that "a win can change this part of the season."
"We are suffering, they are suffering because it is not easy to play in Tottenham in this condition of the table, but I said they have to be stronger," he said.
"We have to live every part of the day waiting for a win and preparing for a win."
Tottenham and West Ham face similar remaining fixtures, with Spurs arguably having a slightly easier schedule. The average league position of their remaining opponents is 11th, compared to 10th for West Ham.
However, West Ham possess some form that Tottenham currently lack.
Nuno Espirito Santo's team have won two and lost only one of their last five matches, while Tottenham have not secured a victory since last year.
"The players are improving their levels and the standards," Nuno said.
"We have been solid in defence, good in attack... sometimes not so good. Finding that balance in the remaining matches is going to be crucial for us."
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