World Cup Last-16 Predictions by BBC Expert Chris Sutton
Only 16 teams remain in the 2026 World Cup, with the final scheduled for 19 July at MetLife Stadium near New York City. football expert Chris Sutton has shared his predictions for the last-16 matches, following a strong performance in forecasting the last 32.
While Sutton accurately predicted 13 out of 16 last-32 matches, Paraguay's unexpected victory over Germany was a notable exception that surprised most fans. Out of more than 60,000 user predictions for that game, only 2% anticipated a Paraguay win. Aside from that, the only other incorrect prediction was Morocco's win over the Netherlands.
Comparing prediction accuracy, Sutton achieved 13 correct results, while AI predictions scored 12 out of 16. With 88 of the 104 World Cup matches completed, user predictions lead with 62 correct outcomes (70%), followed by AI with 55 (63%) and Sutton with 54 (61%).
The last-16 stage features intriguing fixtures such as Mexico versus England and Paraguay versus France. AI's predictions were generated using Microsoft Copilot Chat by requesting the tool to "predict the results of the World Cup last-16 ties." Additionally, the BBC offers a new predictor game allowing readers to select winners for each knockout tie.
For England's match against Mexico, BBC provides a 'Stay Up or Catch Up' service to accommodate viewers.
LAST-16 TIES
Saturday, 4 June
Canada v Morocco
Canada's manager Jesse Marsch has drawn some criticism for his touchline behavior during the tournament, but his players appear to support him. His high-intensity approach has yielded results, with Canada securing their first World Cup point and first win to reach this stage. Their journey has been remarkable but is likely to end here.
Canada may adopt a more attacking approach against Morocco compared to the Netherlands' defensive style in the previous round, a strategy Morocco might welcome. Sutton expresses confidence in Morocco's chances, even suggesting they could win the World Cup, but first, they are expected to win this match.
"I actually think Morocco can win this World Cup but, first things first, they will definitely win this game."
Sutton is covering this match for Radio 5 live, where his commentary colleague Eilidh Barbour agrees on Morocco's victory but believes France will prove too strong in the quarter-finals.
"But that's why I'm the one doing the predictions - she's not going to win any bravery awards for saying that, is she?"
Paraguay v France
Paraguay's elimination of Germany was a major upset, but defeating France presents a far greater challenge. The outcome of this match largely depends on whether France can score early. An early goal could enable France's attacking flair to overwhelm Paraguay, with Kylian Mbappe expected to be a key figure.
Sunday, 5 July
Brazil v Norway
Brazil's potential success in this World Cup is attributed in part to manager Carlo Ancelotti, who demonstrated tactical adaptability in their last-32 win over Japan. Brazil lacks a fixed playing style but adjusts dynamically based on match circumstances.
However, Brazil showed vulnerability in midfield against Japan, where Casemiro was outpaced, allowing Japan to score. Norway may exploit similar weaknesses.
Fans are eager to witness the international rivalry between Brazil's Arsenal centre-back Gabriel and Norway's Manchester City striker Erling Haaland. Sutton doubts Gabriel will contain Haaland effectively.
Statistically, Norway is the only team Brazil has never defeated, with two draws and two losses since 1998. Additionally, Brazil has lost to the first European team they faced in knockout rounds at every World Cup since 2002.
Sutton predicts a closely contested match that will extend to penalties, with Norway's goalkeeper Orjan Nyland potentially becoming the hero.
Sutton's prediction: 2-2 after extra time. Norway to win on penalties.
Monday, 6 July
Mexico v England
England's ability to acclimatize quickly after arriving on Friday will influence their performance. Sutton notes that while he personally was unaffected by Mexico City's altitude during the tournament opener, the conditions remain a factor.
Mexico boasts an impressive home record in competitive matches, but England represents one of the toughest opponents they have faced at Azteca Stadium in recent years. Thomas Tuchel's team earned a deserved victory over DR Congo in the last 32.
Despite concerns about England's defense, Sutton believes they will create sufficient chances to advance, with Harry Kane expected to convert some opportunities.
Portugal v Spain
Sutton expresses confidence in predicting Spain's victory, attributing Portugal's struggles to Cristiano Ronaldo's influence.
Goncalo Ramos scored a notable header to defeat Croatia in the last round after Ronaldo was substituted, yet Ronaldo is expected to start this game and is seen as limiting the team's potential.
Spain combines talented individual players with strong teamwork. Mikel Oyarzabal has been consistently scoring and is anticipated to continue this trend.
Tuesday, 7 July
USA v Belgium
Belgium has advanced somewhat quietly and has yet to impress Sutton. Their last-minute penalty to secure progression was correct but Senegal arguably should have eliminated them earlier.
The USA will miss suspended forward Folarin Balogun but maintains momentum and enjoys home support. Sutton predicts a narrow win for the USA.
Argentina v Egypt
Argentina struggled to overcome Cape Verde but is expected to have an easier match against Egypt. Egypt faced difficulties against a limited Australia side in the last 32.
Sutton, who attended the Egypt-Australia match for 5 Live, noted Haissem Hassan as a threat when substituted on but doubts Egypt can challenge Argentina effectively.
Switzerland v Colombia
Switzerland appears solid, with Granit Xhaka orchestrating midfield play and Johan Manzambi and Ruben Vargas providing attacking threats. However, Colombia has impressed with a well-balanced squad that will be challenging to contain.
Sutton's prediction: 2-3 after extra time.
AI's prediction: 1-1 after extra time. Switzerland to win on penalties.
