Housing Affordability Crisis Intensifies
Among the various aspects of the affordability crisis affecting US families, housing is arguably the most burdensome. The typical home price has increased to nearly six times the typical family income. Consequently, the monthly cost of owning a home has reached unprecedented levels.
The United States currently faces a housing shortfall amounting to millions of homes. However, builders are failing to meet this demand. The supply of new homes decreased in May compared to May of 2025. Economic forecasts predict that investment in both single-family and multifamily residential construction will contract annually through 2030.
Congressional Action and Presidential Opposition
Despite known dysfunctions, Congress recently took bipartisan action to address the housing shortage. For the first time in 30 years, legislation was passed to accelerate homebuilding by easing environmental reviews and other federal regulations that hinder housing development.
However, President Trump refused to sign the legislation unless Congress also passed a bill restricting mail-in voting and requiring voters to provide proof of citizenship. This move was widely seen as an attempt to suppress minority voters and maintain Republican majorities under the pretext of safeguarding US democracy from unfounded voter fraud claims. Regarding the housing bill, Trump stated it was
“of minor importance”.
Policy Initiatives Undermining Core Constituencies
Nearly two years into his second administration, it is clear that President Trump’s primary goal has been to empower himself and his family, often at the expense of broader public interests. Remarkably, many of his policy initiatives have undermined key segments of his own base, raising questions about his confidence in their unwavering loyalty.
For example, his aggressive stance towards Iran, including initiating conflict without clear objectives, led to a surge in gas prices after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. This development undermined one of Trump’s central campaign promises: to reduce inflation.
Rising inflation has resulted in declining real wages on average. Economist Mark Zandi of Moody’s estimated that by June, increased energy costs had negated the benefits of higher tax refunds from Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025.
Iran is not the only factor driving energy prices higher. The accelerated reduction of subsidies for solar power development under the same bill, combined with efforts to halt investment in wind farms, have slowed renewable energy growth, even as demand for electricity from AI data centers increases.
Healthcare and Social Assistance Costs Rise
In addition to energy costs, healthcare expenses for Americans have increased. Enrollment in health insurance plans under the Affordable Care Act is expected to decline this year due to the abrupt termination of government subsidies, resulting in an average premium increase of 58%.
Trump’s broader policies have also cut food assistance and Medicaid health insurance for low-income populations, further straining vulnerable groups.
Impact on Farmers and Trade
Farmers, a significant part of Trump’s base, have also been adversely affected. In 2024, Trump won 433 of the nation’s 444 farming-dependent counties. Nonetheless, his trade war with China contributed to a decline in exports to this key Asian market last year, while tensions with Canada led to a $1 billion drop in farm exports to the US’s northern neighbor.
The White House attempted to mitigate these losses by distributing $28 billion last December to farmers affected by what it termed “unfair market disruptions.” However, additional burdens persist: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly increased fuel costs, and repeated immigration raids have disrupted the agricultural labor force.
Labor Force and Employment Challenges
The administration’s stringent immigration policies have broadly impacted the labor force. Crackdowns have not only targeted immigrant workers but also reduced employment among native-born Americans who often supervise immigrant crews in agricultural sectors.
Similarly, Trump’s trade war has affected his predominantly male blue-collar base. Although it is too early to fully assess the impact of recent tariffs, claims that levies on industrial imports would boost domestic employment conflict with observed declines in manufacturing jobs since Trump took office.
Research indicates that protectionist policies during his first administration generally reduced jobs. Tariffs increased costs for domestic manufacturers by raising prices for industrial inputs and machinery, diminishing their competitiveness. Retaliatory measures by other countries further restricted access to foreign markets for American products.
Gender Disparities in Employment
It is notable that an administration perceived as male-oriented has implemented policies detrimental to male employment, which has already been affected by structural shifts in industry and IT sectors. Since Trump assumed office, male employment has decreased by over 1.5 million, while female employment has increased by nearly half a million. This raises questions about the rationale behind policies that further disadvantage men.
Concerns Among Trump Supporters
Trump’s supporters have legitimate reasons for concern. His poor policy record appears to have intensified his desire to leave a lasting impact on Washington’s infrastructure, alliances, and economic relationships, potentially causing further harm.
One potential future target is those dependent on North American trade. Nine of the ten states most reliant on exports to Mexico and Canada supported Trump in 2024. Should he proceed with withdrawing from the trade pact with these countries, retaliatory tariffs could disproportionately affect his own supporters.
Policy Trade-offs and Constituency Impact
Policymaking inherently involves trade-offs, producing winners and losers. Achieving critical policy objectives may require sacrificing the interests of allied constituencies. Nonetheless, the grassroots supporters of Trump’s populist movement might reasonably question why they consistently bear the brunt of such sacrifices.
Eduardo Porter is a journalist specializing in economics and politics. He authors the newsletter Economic Realities on Substack.
