Voter Priorities Ahead of Welsh Election
As the Welsh election approaches, political parties are closely examining insights into what matters most to voters. The findings largely confirm what has been observed over recent years.
Discussions with voters over the past three years have repeatedly highlighted concerns about the rising cost of everyday essentials such as food and transport. This recent poll provides scientific validation to these anecdotal observations.
The key challenge for Welsh political parties is to persuade voters that they possess viable solutions to the ongoing cost of living crisis. It is important to note that major economic powers lie with the UK government at Westminster rather than the Welsh government in Cardiff Bay.
Party Approaches to Economic Improvement
Although none of the parties have released their manifestos for the 2026 election, there is some indication of their proposed strategies to improve Wales' economic situation, particularly focusing on the nature of employment.
Labour First Minister Eluned Morgan is advocating for the creation of high-quality jobs to stimulate economic growth, with projects such as nuclear power stations at Wylfa and the expansion of artificial intelligence.
Plaid Cymru aims to reinstate the Welsh Development Agency to support the growth of Welsh businesses.
The Conservatives have committed to reducing income tax by one penny and eliminating business rates for small enterprises.
The Liberal Democrats and the Greens have emphasized green jobs, as reflected in their 2024 General Election campaigns.
On the other end of the spectrum, Reform has proposed "re-industrialising" Wales, including reopening blast furnaces at steelworks and coal mines.
Healthcare Remains a Top Concern
It is no surprise to see the NHS ranked among the top three concerns for voters.
Healthcare is expected to be a significant focus in the upcoming election manifestos, though it carries considerable political risk. Reducing waiting times is a priority for Morgan, with recent figures showing the lowest levels in nearly three years. However, waiting lists remain high at just under 741,000 patient pathways.
Labour faces a substantial risk of not meeting its target to reduce overall waiting times to 600,000 by the end of March. Failure to achieve this goal will likely be exploited by opposition parties. Even if the target is met, the waiting lists will still be significant and have accumulated during Labour's tenure.
Should a different party take office in May, they will inherit these lengthy waiting lists, albeit ones that are decreasing. According to the poll, over half of Welsh residents believe the NHS is deteriorating.
Voter Desire for Change and Immigration Debate
Opposition parties emphasize that voters desire change, expecting swift improvements, particularly in the Welsh NHS.
Immigration is anticipated to be a notable issue in the election, despite immigration policy being controlled by the UK government at Westminster rather than the Senedd in Cardiff Bay.
Both Morgan and Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth have argued that sectors such as tourism and health and social care in Wales require more workers, including migrants.
The poll indicates that no age group in Wales believes the nation needs more migrants.
Immigration policy in Wales is already contentious. Both Reform and the Conservatives propose abolishing the Welsh Labour government's Nation of Sanctuary policy, which supports refugees and asylum seekers.
Immigration has influenced Welsh electoral politics. Plaid Cymru sources attribute their by-election victory in Caerphilly last October partly to voter dissatisfaction with Reform's immigration stance.
A notable moment in a pre-election BBC debate was when Reform candidate Llyr Powell was challenged on immigration issues.
However, Plaid Cymru has faced criticism as well. Ap Iorwerth was criticized by Conservatives and Reform for stating in a BBC interview that "there was no such thing as illegal immigration."
Independence and Election Dynamics
Independence is expected to be discussed during the campaign, though ironically, less so by Plaid Cymru, which supports independence but not immediately.
Labour, Conservatives, Reform, and the Liberal Democrats are likely to raise the topic to caution voters about the risks associated with Plaid's ultimate goal.
The poll suggests that independence is not a pressing issue for the majority of Welsh voters at present.
Looking Ahead to Election Day
While this poll offers valuable insights, the most critical moment remains the election day itself on 7 May.
Savanta conducted the survey of 2,086 adults between 29 January and 6 February 2026 on behalf of BBC Wales. A similar poll has been carried out for BBC Scotland.
